NIT Semi-finals Tonight Bonnies Vs Xav, Wash St vs Tx A&M

[Tanko]

Xav +1.5 vs St. Bonnie:

Xavier is the dog as of this morning probably due to the injury to their playmaker. Without Scruggs they almost lost to Vanderbilt last week coming back from 9 down with 6 min left to win by 2. Fortunately, Kunkel did fill in nicely for Scruggs with 14 pts/4 asst.. I'm not sure if that can be expected every game.

• Xavier typically loses to team of St. Bonnies strength going 2-4 in the last 8 weeks. They have lost by an average of 5 points in those 6 games. This average would be losing by 9 pts if you exclude the blowout win vs Florida.

Xavier is 3-4 ATS on recent low spread (<5 pts) games.

All of Xavier's NIT games have been at home (Clev, Florida, Vanderbilt).


St. Bonnie is 4-2 over the last several weeks when playing teams of Xavier's strength. They did have a blowout loss to VCU in that group. If you exclude the VCU score they win by avg of 4 pts.

Bonnies are 5-1 ATS on recent low spread games. They came back from 5 down in last 2 minutes in their last game against Virginia. That is a little concerning. But they beat Oklahoma also in a tight game.

It's important to note that all of St. Bonnie's NIT wins have been on the road (@ Colorado, @Okla, @ Virg)



I'm leaning St. Bonnie ML in this one. I like their record against similarly ranked teams, that they have won all their games on the road, and that Xavier is without Scruggs.

 

[RudyRuder]

Good info....i think i am skipping that one though


we are waiting for your writeup on the next one

 

[Wagerallsports]

What time does this one tip tank?

 

[carolinakid]

The Xmen tip at 7 and Texas A& M at 930 both games are on espn 206 dtv

 

[Bubbles]

I like your write-ups. thanks tanko

 

[Tanko]

The Wash St vs Texas A&M game is a much more difficult game to take a side on. Both teams playing above expectation lately.

Wash St. has won 3 games in the NIT very easily (by 13, 12, & 19 pts) against teams similar in strength to TX A&M. A&M has won by 12, 15, 15 pts in their games, one against a horrible team (Alcorn St), an average team (Oregon), and the last one against a team similar to Wash St. (Wake).

The Off Effic, Def Effic, Tempo of both these teams are almost identical.

So where is the edge????
Some may say its with Wash St. and their 2 big men. Gueye (6'-10")/Abogidi (6'-11") vs Tx A&M's big(?) man Coleman (6'-8"). Tx A&M is all about the guard position. They have a ton of guards with usually 4 on the court at a time and 6'-8" Coleman (sometimes Henderson 6'-8" off the bench).

But, this height advantage has not translated into increased wins against the Aggies or even a rebounding advantage for A&M's opponent. In the last two game Aggies have outrebounded their much taller opponents.

Wake Players: Mucius 6'-8", LaRavia 6'-8", Watson 7'-0", Sy 6'-10
Oregon Players: Guerrier 6'-8", Dante 6-11", Kepnang 6'-11"

I'm not seeing much of an edge for side on this game. Tough one to call. I don't even like the total 133. It seems about right. Maybe someone else see's something I'm missing.

Good luck