NHL Player Props

[quantumleap]

Now that football is done, I have to have something to do with my spare time other than yard work and cleaning the house. So I thought I would delve into NHL player props.

I played both shots on goal and points and didn't do well with points so I'll stick mostly to shots on goal totals.

I play a lot of favorites because the juice gives me something to look at why a player may be favored so I'm guessing I'll average around -150. If I go 15-10 I'm about breaking even. I also like to take the over in shots on goal with players playing teams that give up a lot of goals. I'm not using rocket science here, OK?

All lines from Heritage unless specifically noted.

YTD: 0-0, 0.00

 

[quantumleap]

02-18-23

E. Pettersson (VAN) over 2 1/2 shots on goal -170

 

[mralar16]

Got it down. Good luck!

 

[quantumleap]

Last 2 for today:

Marchessault (LV) over 2 1/2 shots on goal -145

Stamkos (TB) under 3 1/2 shots on goal -145

 

[quantumleap]

I'm passing on these 2 because they are too much juice (Larkin under 3 1/2 shots -195 and W. Karlsson under 2 1/2 shots -215). I just want to see how they do.

 

[quantumleap]

+0.59) E. Pettersson over 2 1/2
+0.69) Marchessault over 2 1/2 (had 5 shots after 1 period)
+0.69) Stamkos under 3 1/2

3-0, +1.97

(Oh yeah, both Larkin and Karlsson went under as well.)

 

[quantumleap]

02-19-23

Rodrigues (COL) shots on goal over 2 1/2 -145

Draisatl (EDM) shots on goal over 2 1/2 -165

 

[quantumleap]

An odd thing happened on Saturday. I was counting up my units at the end of the day and it was way lower than I expected. I thought maybe some winning bets weren't graded yet. Nope, all graded.

I checked my bets and 3 of them that showed as winners at nhl.com at the end of the game had been changed. I guess nhl.com double-checks to see if the count was right and edits the shot count shortly after the game ends. I've been betting these shots on goal bets for a couple weeks now and never had that happen. Weird things happen on Saturdays in the betting world.

I guess this is why books wait awhile to grade a bet on these props. I guess I'll have to wait to grade my posts here as well and will wait until the book grades them before I post them.

 

[Wagerallsports]

NHL your main sport Q?

 

[akillies]

guy on sportsgrid around noon, pics shots on goal props, claims to be killing it.
from what i heard they are all chalk, star players to go over.
when l check his plays you cant get the numbers, he gives out Ovechkin over 3 and its over 4 -180

 

[Tanko]

Good luck on the props QL.
Going to be lurking to learn more about NHL props. I'm not much of a hockey guy but I can learn.

 

[refugee]

Liking this thread.

 

[quantumleap]

NHL your main sport Q?

Yes.

 

[quantumleap]

guy on sportsgrid around noon, pics shots on goal props, claims to be killing it.
from what i heard they are all chalk, star players to go over.
when l check his plays you cant get the numbers, he gives out Ovechkin over 3 and its over 4 -180

My small dollar amounts don't move the lines.

 

[quantumleap]

Good luck on the props QL.
Going to be lurking to learn more about NHL props. I'm not much of a hockey guy but I can learn.

These 2 stuck on the same SOG for quite some time. Hopefully it will go to OT.

Next pick:

Auston Matthews (TOR) shots on goal over 3 1/2 -130

 

[quantumleap]

Crouse (Ari) shots on goal under 2 1/2 -150

 

[rolandcorts]

Unless you're making your own lines using some sort of systematic/scientific method, you're not doing that much better than guessing (like everyone else does).

Why not make 'power ratings' for teams in terms of how many shots they give up? And maybe it depends who's in net.

And then make a rating for players in terms of how many shots they take.

Another angle to consider would be trying to estimate how much time on ice the player is likely to get. If the star is injured, maybe the #2 guy will get more shots than usual if he's promoted to the top line, etc.

These are very beatable but you need to work harder.

 

[rolandcorts]

If you have a bit of a math background you might want to look into Poisson distributions for modeling these too

 

[jjgold]

Most of clowns on television post numbers that are not available, and interesting thread though . I would think limits are low they could catch on quickly if you do have an edge.

 

[quantumleap]

Dubois (WPG) shots on goal under 2 1/2 +110