NFL Week 6 Injuries That Could Impact The Playoffs

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NFL Week 6 injuries: Ranking most impactful for 2023 playoffs​

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Week 6 of the 2023 NFL season has not been pretty. In addition to some brutally timed mistakes and generally sloppy football, offenses have converted just 43.4% of their red zone trips into touchdowns this week. That's the worst mark for any single week since the 2014 season, and red zone woes helped swing frustrating losses by the Saints, Giants and Seahawks on Sunday.

Sunday was also particularly ugly for injuries. For a stretch, it felt like you couldn't watch 20 minutes without another critical player going down. Even after certified fun players such as Colts quarterback Anthony Richardson and Vikings wideout Justin Jefferson suffered injuries a week ago, this felt like a particularly brutal slate of knocks.

Four starting quarterbacks left their games with injuries and have uncertain statuses for Week 7, while two of the best players in the game at their respective positions were forced out of theirs in what turned out to be frustrating losses for their previously undefeated teams. None of this even includes 49ers left tackle Trent Williams, Bills quarterback Josh Allen and Patriots running back Rhamondre Stevenson, who left their games before returning.

Let's break down nine of the most notable injuries from Week 6 and discuss what went wrong as a result and the impact it would have if each of those players were unavailable for Week 7 and beyond. We'll know more about the severity of these injuries Monday afternoon, but these are nine critical players.


I'll rank them roughly in order of how hard it would be for their teams to replace them, although none of these nine starters really has a like-for-like replacement on the roster. There are four quarterbacks here, but I'll start instead with an offensive lineman whose injuries have sunk an offense on more than one occasion:

 

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9. James Hurst, OT, Saints​

Injured left ankle in 20-13 loss to the Texans

Let's finish with one of the league's most underrated players. Hurst has spent the past four seasons in New Orleans, and while he has nominally been the team's utility lineman on paper, injuries have led him to become an every-down player over the past three seasons. On a team that has fielded multiple first-round picks and top-of-the-market players up front, he has outplayed far more pedigreed players.

Hurst has been New Orleans' starting left guard this season, but with Trevor Penning struggling at left tackle, coach Dennis Allen decided to bench the 2022 first-round pick and move Hurst from left guard to the most important position on the line. That move was cancelled after 18 snaps, when Hurst went down with an ankle injury and wasn't able to return. The Saints also lost right tackle Ryan Ramczyk when the star lineman was forced to leave the game to be evaluated for a concussion in the fourth quarter.
While Hurst wasn't at fault for the offense's struggles over the first five games of the season, things didn't get much better without him on the field for most of the sixth. The Saints racked up 430 yards on offense, but their three trips to the red zone in the second half produced a total of three points. Blake Grupe badly missed a 29-yard field goal in the fourth quarter, while a fourth-and-4 swing pass to Alvin Kamara came up short of the sticks. Penning committed holding and tripping penalties during his time in the game at left tackle.

If Hurst is sidelined for any extended period, the Saints would be without their security blanket up front. Penning would be forced to step in at left tackle. Left guard would go to Max Garcia or Andrus Peat, the latter of whom was benched for the first two weeks of the season before entering the lineup and suffering a concussion. He missed this week's game with a groin injury. Hurst isn't going to single-handedly sink or save the Saints, but an offense that ranks 27th in points per drive needs all the help it can get.

 

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8. Deebo Samuel, WR, 49ers​

Injured right shoulder in 19-17 loss to Browns

Football is certainly less fun without Samuel, who is one of the few players capable of doing anything on a week-to-week basis. On Sunday, that appeared to include a pregame fight with the Browns before he suffered a shoulder injury and departed for good after eight offensive snaps. Given that the 49ers would later lose Christian McCaffrey, Samuel's absence made Brock Purdy's day even harder against one of the league's best defenses.

Teams can't choose which of their players will get injured, of course, but if the 49ers could somehow choose between having McCaffrey or Samuel available, I don't think they would have to think too long before choosing the former player. The 49ers' offense screeched to a halt when McCaffrey went down after halftime, and it was struggling before he arrived from the Panthers last October.

Samuel was the one 49ers offensive star who missed time during Purdy's stunning 2022 breakout. The offense did just fine without him. The 49ers scored 35 points in a win over the Buccaneers, with Samuel playing just 43% of snaps before leaving with a high ankle sprain. Purdy & Co. then averaged just under 32 points per game over the next three weeks without Samuel in the fold before Samuel returned and had a limited role in a 38-point performance over the Cardinals.

Then again, with Samuel returning to his regular role in the wild-card round, he racked up 165 yards from scrimmage on nine touches in a blowout victory over the Seahawks. He is the best yards-after-catch receiver in football by a considerable margin; he has generated 617 yards after catch over expectation (YACOE) on 153 catches over the past three seasons. Ja'Marr Chase ranks second in cumulative YACOE with 533 across 218 targets, and nobody else in football has more than 320 over that time frame.


The only other player on this roster who can come close to Samuel when it comes to breaking games open with big plays is McCaffrey. The running back is a more impactful week-to-week contributor, but Samuel is a valuable receiver and a deterrent for teams that want to try to get physical with San Francisco, before and during the game.

 

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7. David Montgomery, RB, Lions​

Injured rib in 20-6 victory over Buccaneers

With Jahmyr Gibbs already sidelined, Montgomery has been ever present as the Lions' lead back. After returning from a thigh injury in Week 4, he touched the ball 32 times in a win over the Packers and added 21 more touches in last week's blowout victory over the Panthers, including a 42-yard touchdown run. He then played 18 of the first 19 offensive snaps Sunday before falling on the football and suffering a rib injury. He didn't return, although Detroit didn't need him in a 20-6 victory over the Bucs.

Montgomery's numbers have been a product of added volume as opposed to efficiency. He's averaging 4.1 yards per carry on 94 rushing attempts. He's just narrowly above average by RYOE, with 8 yards across those 94 carries, and he has generated two fewer first downs than expected. His 44.7% success rate has been the best measure of his impact, as he ranks eighth among halfbacks with at least 50 carries. He has almost been identical to what Jamaal Williams (4.1 yards per carry, 43.9% success rate, minus-11 RYOE, and minus-5 first downs over expectation on 262 carries) did for Detroit in the lead role a year ago.

Without Montgomery, the Lions don't really have a back who can fill that role. Craig Reynolds delivered one of the greatest downfield blocks you'll ever see on Amon-Ra St. Brown's touchdown Sunday, but in taking over as the lead back, he turned 10 carries into 15 yards. Journeyman Devine Ozigbo had three carries for 5 more. The Bucs have a reputation as a great run defense, but it's long outdated; they came into Sunday with the league's worst success rate (48.8%) as a run defense. On Sunday, they were successful on 76.2% of Detroit's run plays.

The Lions controlled the game, but they scored only 20 points on 10 offensive drives. (An 11th drive was strictly kneel-downs.) Jared Goff dropped back 47 times, and while he threw for 353 yards and two touchdowns, that isn't going to be a game plan coach Dan Campbell wants to rely upon week after week.

Goff has always been at his best when there's a significant run element to the offense and he can operate off play-action. Over the past two seasons, his 84.5 QBR off play-action is tops in the NFL, with him throwing for a league-high 2,043 yards off of play-fakes. He has averaged 9.2 yards with play-action and thrown 22 touchdown passes against two picks; he has averaged 7.1 yards per throw and thrown 18 touchdowns against eight picks without a play-fake attached.


If Montgomery misses time because of the rib injury, the 5-1 Lions will have to adjust. Gibbs could return, but he's not the same sort of player. Reynolds might be stretched in a starting role. With a trip to Baltimore coming up next week, they won't want to have Goff drop back 45 times again without the threat of a running game. They would love to have Montgomery back in the lineup for a game against a serious contender in the AFC.

 

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6. Jimmy Garoppolo, QB, Raiders​

Injured back in 21-17 victory over Patriots

It's rarely good when your starting quarterback leaves the game and goes in an ambulance to the hospital, but the Raiders seem to be playing down the situation involving Garoppolo. The veteran quarterback was injured at some point on the final drive of the first half, and while he finished out the drive and set up a field goal, he did not return after halftime.

After the game, Josh McDaniels characterized the trip to the hospital as for "testing." I don't need to recite Garoppolo's lengthy injury history here. He has missed 34 starts over the past 10 seasons with various ailments, most notably a torn ACL in his left knee in 2018. He is a tough quarterback, but he also takes lots of shots and hasn't been able to stay on the field for long stretches of time.

It's unclear whether Garoppolo will miss Sunday's game at Chicago. Unlike Tannehill's situation with Tennessee, though, the Raiders might feel pretty good about their backups. Rookie Aidan O'Connell gave a passable performance in a spot start against the Chargers earlier this season, but the backup Sunday was 38-year-old journeyman Brian Hoyer. The former No. 2 to Tom Brady went 6-of-10 for 102 yards in the second half, highlighted by a 48-yard completion to Tre Tucker on a third-and-4. The Raiders eventually kicked a field goal on that drive and needed those three points, given that the Pats got within 19-17 before taking a late safety.


Hoyer has never been a superstar, but he has played in the McDaniels offense with the Patriots for many seasons. Garoppolo has thrown eight interceptions in four games; if Hoyer can just protect the ball, he might give the Raiders a better chance of winning than their incumbent, especially if Garoppolo is limited by his back complaint. Hoyer is not a guy the Raiders want to start for most of a playoff run, but if this is just another spot start, he should be a passable backup.

 

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5. Trevor Lawrence, QB, Jaguars​

Injured left knee in 37-20 victory over Colts

If this were a more serious injury, Lawrence would be much higher up on this list. Instead, everything that has been reported so far suggests he is not dealing with a long-term injury. The quarterback took a hit late in Sunday's win over the Colts and stayed down, which might have caused the entire city of Jacksonville to hold its breath. Lawrence had his knee examined on the sideline and didn't return, but he was walking around afterward without any sort of assistance and said later that he felt "pretty good."

Lawrence will get more testing Monday, but the only reason this is so high on the list is bad timing. The Jaguars have a short week ahead, as they'll play the Saints on Thursday night. Lawrence wasn't able to confirm that he'll be able to suit up on short rest in New Orleans, which would leave backup C.J. Beathard in position to take over as the starter.

Outside of Trey Lance, who never really had a meaningful chance, Beathard might be considered as the worst regular quarterback of the Kyle Shanahan era in San Francisco. Over 12 starts, he completed just 58.6% of his passes and took sacks on 8.5% of his dropbacks. He has spent the past three seasons in Jacksonville, going 11-of-15 for 77 yards with an interception while averaging 5.1 yards per attempt as a backup.


Obviously, the Jaguars are in Year 3 of what they hope to be a decade or more with Lawrence as their quarterback, so they shouldn't rush him back on a short week for one game against the Saints. At the same time, if Lawrence is able to go, the Saints aren't likely to make his injury worse, as Dennis Allen's defense ranks 25th in sack rate this season. The following week's matchup against the Steelers might be a little more dangerous for Lawrence, but the Jaguars do get a well-timed bye in Week 9.

 

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4. Justin Fields, QB, Bears​

Injured right thumb in 19-13 loss to the Vikings

Just when the offense appeared to be getting going in Chicago, things fell apart. Fields was struggling through a difficult game against the Vikings, but the situation got much worse in the third quarter. The 2021 first-round pick was sacked on third down to end a drive and left with a thumb injury. He wasn't able to return, and reporting from Fox's Jay Glazer suggests he dislocated his thumb and wasn't able to grip a football.

The rest of Chicago's depth chart consists of journeyman Nathan Peterman and undrafted free agent Tyson Bagent, who was installed as the team's No. 2 passer Sunday. Bagent came in and was strip-sacked on third down of his first drive, with the Vikings finally landing on a fumble and taking it to the house for a touchdown. Bagent would lead a fourth-quarter touchdown drive to bring the score within six points and drive the Bears onto Minnesota's side of the field with 2:05 to go, only for a poor throw to be intercepted by Byron Murphy to all but end the game.

Even allowing for what Purdy did as Mr. Irrelevant last season, there's no track record of rookie undrafted free agents succeeding as quarterbacks during their debut seasons. The only undrafted quarterbacks who have thrown 100 pass attempts as a rookie since the merger are Chad Hutchinson, Matt Moore, Matt McGloin, David Blough and Devlin Hodges. They combined to throw more interceptions (35) than touchdown passes (27) while averaging just 6.5 yards per attempt.


Peterman's track record speaks for itself, so I'm not sure he would be a much better answer. For now, the Bears can grit their teeth and hope Fields' thumb doesn't require more significant treatment. Jared Goff dislocated and fractured his thumb in December 2020, had surgery and came back two weeks later to help win a playoff game over the Seahawks. It's unclear whether Fields' thumb is broken, but the Bears will be hoping for a similar sort of turnaround time even if it is. There's nobody who can play like him behind him on the roster.

 

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3. Ryan Tannehill, QB, Titans​

Injured right ankle in 24-16 loss to Ravens

The Titans have had a topsy-turvy season, but it's tough to envision them seeing many highs from here on out if their starting quarterback is sidelined for any significant amount of time. With Tennessee trailing 18-3 in the third quarter, Tannehill was sacked by Justin Madubuike and appeared to injure his right ankle. His 2022 season was ended by surgery on the same ankle.

Tannehill returned to the game and led two scoring drives for 10 points, but after throwing an interception, he left for good and was carted to the locker room. The Ravens dominated the remainder of the game. Although backup Malik Willis led the Titans to a late field goal, Baltimore was comfortable for most of the fourth quarter in a 24-16 victory.

Look at the box score and you'll wonder whether the Titans would really miss much if Tannehill were sidelined. He finished 8-of-16 for 76 yards. His interception was a terrible mistake, as he passed up two open checkdowns on third-and-1 to squeeze a throw downfield into a window that wasn't really there for an interception. He ranks 31st in QBR this season, so you can't just chalk this up to one game and a bad ankle, either.

At the same time, there isn't much of a reason to believe the Titans have a quarterback who would be good enough to finish 31st in QBR playing behind Tannehill. Willis looked overmatched in three starts last season before being benched for Joshua Dobbs. He was 4-of-5 for 74 yards while down double digits in the fourth quarter Sunday, but much of that came on a screen to Tyjae Spears that picked up 48 yards, all coming after the catch.

The most damning piece of evidence against Willis is that the Titans used a second-round pick in April's draft on Will Levis, who presumably would have usurped Willis as the team's quarterback of the future in the process. And the most damning piece of evidence against Levis is that Willis still stands ahead of him on the depth chart. Levis missed preseason time with an injury, but he's yet to be active for a single game this season.

Levis theoretically could step in and immediately revitalize a Tennessee offense that hasn't shown any sort of consistency from game to game or even from quarter to quarter this season, but it'll be tough to do that with limited experience and a porous offensive line. Disastrous free agent signing Andre Dillard, who was given $10 million in guarantees this offseason, was benched after allowing the Madubuike sack that injured Tannehill and didn't play a single offensive snap the rest of the game. Nicholas Petit-Frere, the team's right tackle a year ago, was forced to play left tackle in his debut after returning from his gambling suspension.


The Titans get a bye this week as they return from London, which should give them time to consider their options. If Tannehill is going to miss Week 8 against the Falcons, coach Mike Vrabel can pick a quarterback and get him two weeks of preparation time. The Titans have used Derrick Henry in a rotational role alongside Spears this season, but if they have to turn to one of Tannehill's backups for an extended period of time, they might look back to 2021, when they gave Henry the largest workload of any back in NFL history over the first half of the season.

 

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2. Christian McCaffrey, RB, 49ers​

Injured oblique/rib in 19-17 loss to Browns

All it took for Brock Purdy to lose his first regular-season game was McCaffrey, Deebo Samuel and Trent Williams all leaving with injuries. Williams returned, and I'll get to Samuel in a bit, but it's clear that McCaffrey's absence cost the 49ers dearly. Purdy has his worst NFL game by a considerable margin, going 12-of-27 for 125 yards with a touchdown and his first interception of the season.

Like the Eagles with Johnson, the on/off split with McCaffrey tells the story. The 49ers scored 10 points with McCaffrey playing his normal role Sunday, including a 13-yard touchdown catch for the star running back on the opening drive. He played just four snaps after halftime, and while San Francisco scored seven points after the break, that score came on a one-play drive that started on Cleveland's 8-yard line after an interception of PJ Walker.

We already saw McCaffrey transform what had been a struggling 49ers offense last season. Jimmy Garoppolo & Co. ranked 19th in the NFL in expected points added (EPA) per play when they beat out the Rams and acquired McCaffrey in a trade with the Panthers last October. From that point forward, they have led the league in EPA per offensive snap, even after being forced to turn to their third-string quarterback in Purdy.

As my colleague Mina Kimes has mentioned, McCaffrey's arrival forced teams to change the way they play defense against the 49ers. They faced man coverage on just under 39% of their dropbacks through Week 6 last season, which ranked 26th. Since the McCaffrey deal, teams have been forced to play man coverage on 48% of Niners dropbacks, which is the second-highest rate in football. Defenses couldn't afford to let him just settle into open space and wreak havoc after the catch.

Purdy's QBR is 19 points higher against man coverage than it is against zone. The 49ers have a team full of players who can break away from man coverage and make plays after the catch, and they have a play designer in Kyle Shanahan who knows every defensive rule and how to break it to create miscommunication and blown coverages in the secondary.

On Sunday, though, the Browns were able to play loads of man coverage and live to tell the tale. Purdy saw man coverage on a league-high 66.7% of his dropbacks, but without McCaffrey or Samuel for most of the game, the second-year sensation went just 6-of-19 for 51 yards with a touchdown, an interception and two sacks on those snaps. Just like they did in Week 1 against Joe Burrow and the Bengals, the Browns felt they had the personnel to win one-on-one against a great offense in coverage long enough for their pass rush to get home.

There might not be more than one or two players in the league who could fill the McCaffrey role with a similar sort of skill set, so it's no surprise the 49ers' options were limited without him on the field. Backup Elijah Mitchell returned from a knee injury, but Shanahan was only comfortable giving the third-year player seven offensive snaps. Second-year back Jordan Mason took the other 15. McCaffrey has gained 128 rush yards over expectation (RYOE) on 110 carries this season, while Mason and Mitchell have combined for 17 RYOE across their 39 attempts.

Neither player was targeted in the pass game, something that would be unimaginable for 22 snaps from McCaffrey. The 49ers are a different offense when they don't have a significant pass-catcher coming out of the backfield. Kyle Juszczyk catches passes, but he's not the same sort of physical talent or capable of stretching teams the way McCaffrey does. Shanahan has been able to put linebackers in binds by the threat of McCaffrey picking up easy catches in front of them and has created deep completions for Purdy on dig routes behind those linebackers. Purdy hasn't had to throw deep outside the numbers often: He has just 12 attempts there across his 13 starts.


It's unclear whether McCaffrey will miss more time, and thankfully for the 49ers, it's unlikely this will result in a long-term absence. Given McCaffrey's significant injury history from the 2020 and 2021 seasons, though, this loss was a warning to the 49ers: As good as Purdy has become and as incredible as Shanahan's playcalling can be, the offense we've seen devastate the league over the past year can't run the same way without McCaffrey.

 

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1. Lane Johnson, OT, Eagles​

Injured right ankle in 20-14 loss to Jets

Three things are perpetually true about Johnson. No. 1 is that he's consistently the best right tackle in football when healthy. No. 2 is that he's almost always going to battle injuries at some point during the season. No. 3, unfortunately for the Eagles, is that they acutely feel the impact of losing him for any length of time.

Sunday was no different, as they suffered their first loss of the season after Johnson was sidelined by an ankle injury in the first quarter. He left the game on the opening drive, with Philadelphia in the middle of what would eventually become a 19-play, 91-yard touchdown drive. Jalen Hurts & Co. scored seven points on that drive and then seven across the remaining nine possessions, as the Eagles turned the ball over four times in what would eventually become a 20-14 defeat.

This is nothing new for the Eagles, who have seen everybody from Nick Foles to Carson Wentz to Gardner Minshew rapidly decline once Johnson has gone down injured. On Christmas Eve last season, with Hurts already sidelined, Minshew and the offense had scored 27 points on the Cowboys when Johnson went down in the fourth quarter. Minshew threw an interception on the very next play, and on the final snap of the game, Dante Fowler Jr. went through replacement right tackle Jack Driscoll to pressure Minshew and force a wild incompletion.

The next week, the Eagles scored a season-low 10 points in a loss to the Saints. Hurts returned to the fold in an attempt to clinch the top seed in the NFC in Week 18, where a Johnson-less Eagles team struggled to a 22-16 victory over a Giants team with nothing to play for that was sitting most of its defensive starters.

Sunday's story was more of the same. On paper, even with a vaunted Jets front ready to wreak havoc, this should have been a big-game opportunity for Hurts. The Jets were down their top two cornerbacks -- Sauce Gardner and D.J. Reed -- and were able to dress only four corners.

Instead, while the Eagles did hit the occasional big play, they sorely missed Johnson. The Jets blitzed Hurts 16% of the time, which is about half the typical blitz rate we've seen against Hurts this season. They still managed to pressure him 40% of the time, which is tied for the second-highest pressure rate we've seen against Hurts in a game since the start of last season.

Hurts wasn't terrible against pressure, as he went 8-of-16 for 64 yards with a 34.6 QBR, but he did throw an interception. Guess who was involved. Driscoll, who was beaten around the edge on the right side by Jermaine Johnson, with the 2022 first-round pick slapping Hurts' arm and forcing the ball directly into the hands of Bryce Hall. You could argue Hurts held the ball a little too long and gave Johnson time to take a circuitous route around Driscoll, but it seems fair to say the pressure probably doesn't happen with a world-class right tackle on the field.

To be fair, the Eagles also left some opportunities on the table and made their own mistakes. A wide-open DeVonta Smith had an egregious drop early in the third quarter that should have set up a field goal. Jake Elliott missed a 37-yard kick that would have put Philadelphia up five with 8:17 to go and forced the Jets to score a touchdown. And of course, with the Eagles one first down away from sealing up the game or forcing the Jets to go the length of the field to kick a field goal, Hurts forced a truly inexplicable pass in coverage to Dallas Goedert that was easily picked by Tony Adams, setting up a walk-in touchdown for Breece Hall.

While the Eagles had started the season with five straight victories, it was plainly apparent they hadn't been anywhere near as dominant as the 2022 team on a snap-by-snap basis, even before the Jets game. They ranked toward the bottom of the league in red zone efficiency on offense and defense before Week 6; some regression there kept them afloat for most of Sunday, as Sean Desai's unit held the Jets to three field goals on their first three trips before they allowed Hall to score. Injuries had led to vulnerabilities in the secondary. The Eagles were surviving on tush pushes, pass pressure and a plus-3 turnover margin.