NFL plays - week 12

[chuckythegoat2]

258 TENN Titans -3.5 (2.00). $100 to win 100.
...Under-the-radar game. No real playoff implications.
...After sparkling debut by Levis, Titans have lost L3.
...But that belies the point. Levis has shown arm-strength, top-pick Young has not (for Carolina).
...I view this as a good game for hidden value. Game won't be highly-scrutinized. But I see Titan value on a # that's too short.

 

[BMR Genie]

Good luck, Chuck!

The second time the Titans have become the favorite for this season.

I like the under for this one.

 

[chuckythegoat2]

Thx, Genie. Happy Holidays.

 

[chuckythegoat2]

114 NEW YORK JETS +10 (1.93). $100 to win 93.
...Jets off a blowout loss. # shouldn't be this high.
...I've referenced the Dolphin offensive injuries. Two off linemen out, and RB Achane got dinged again last week.
...Jet weather, in the 40s. Not South Beach weather, Dolphins won't be as comfortable.
...Only question for me is the read on the QB situation. It's un-thinkable (to me) that journeyman Boyle can be the equivalent of Wilson. But Salah made the change.
...In fairness to Boyle, he has been in these locker rooms for many years. Salah must see something in practice to trigger the change. He must think Boyle can execute a game plan better.

If it's just a lateral move from Wilson to Boyle, this is good value. Subjectively, I have a hard time envisioning Boyle being successful. But I don't get an asterisk (*) on this game. I'm taking +10. You don't get a re-call if it winds up being a whiff.

 

[chuckythegoat2]

267 Buffalo Bills +3 (2.08). $100 to win 108.
...I see this as a value spot for the Bills. Got the win last week to keep them in the playoff hunt.
...So de-valued from previous results. Catching a FG+ when they looked like the best team in the league in September.
...I view this as an anti-Eagle spot. Off two wins: key divisional win over DALL, Super Bowl payback win at Kan City.
...Eagles in the midst of a very tough string of games. Cumulative effect, IMHO.
...Don't think they're as dominant as their 9-1 record would imply.

You pay such a heavy tax on 3 in the market nowadays. I'm going to play the +3 at a fatter price.

Happy Holidays, everyone. Good Luck.

 

[BMR Genie]

Happy Holidays, Chuck!

May this week bring you more reason to celebrate and be thankful! Get those picks a win!

 

[renegade]

Jets only going to Boyle to give the impression they are trying for solutions, they know he stinks too. Best hope for them is to play great defense and hope for the running backs to play great

 

[chuckythegoat2]

1-1 (w/ one push). Dead-even.

*Titans = nice cover.
*Jets = brutal. I knew there was a chance Boyle would lay an egg. I still don't understand how Salah could start him.
*Bills land 3. I don't question my play. Amazing FG in rain to tie it. And it lands 3 late in OT.