Rotation players to solid starters
In this section, I'll touch on the players emerging in regular roles last season without advancing to the status of full-time players or every-week starters. Some might not have played for significant stretches because of injury a year ago, but they should be Week 1 starters.
Skyy Moore, WR, Chiefs
Kadarius Toney might have been an obvious pick for this list, but the former Giants speedster hasn't been able to stay healthy for any significant stretch. He's already questionable for Week 1 after knee surgery in late July. The Chiefs believe Toney can become a star -- and Justyn Ross is looking like the player who many expected to be a first-round pick before suffering a run of injuries -- but it's just tough to count on either of those players to be on the field for even 500 offensive snaps.
With JuJu Smith-Schuster leaving for the Patriots, Moore is the most likely candidate to step in and play when the Chiefs have two or three wide receivers on the field. The 2022 second-rounder struggled to attract regular playing time and was a liability as a punt returner during his rookie campaign, but he still averaged 1.6 yards per route run.
It's usually dangerous to back wide receivers who don't show much in Year 1, but one pre-draft comp for Moore struggled early in his career before turning into a Pro Bowler. Golden Tate was anonymous for his first year and a half with the Seahawks before growing into a more significant role and eventually emerging as a star in Detroit. If Moore can stay on the field for the Chiefs, he should be able to produce even quicker.
Chigoziem Okonkwo, TE, Titans
Tennessee is coming off a lost 2022 season, but one of the bright spots from the frustrating campaign was its rookie tight end. Okonkwo made his presence known with a stretch in which he seemed to get open for a long catch every week. He finished with four catches of 30-plus yards; the only tight ends with more were Travis Kelce, George Kittle, T.J. Hockenson and Hunter Henry.
Okonkwo averaged 2.9 yards per route run on 154 routes; the only player with 100 routes or more who averaged more yards per route run last year was Tyreek Hill. Of course, most players ran far more routes than him. If we look back through recent history at tight ends who were wildly efficient while running about 10 routes per game, the results are mixed. Ladarius Green and Austin Seferian-Jenkins never grew into larger roles as receivers, but Jared Cook and Jimmy Graham were similarly efficient at the beginning of their careers before emerging as standouts in larger roles.
Playing on a team that runs at one of the league's highest rates and with DeAndre Hopkins and Treylon Burks at wide receiver, Okonkwo's won't attract huge target numbers. If he can run even five more routes per game, though, he could push toward being a top-10 tight end.
Jordan Davis, DT, Eagles
It was lost in the shuffle during an otherwise incredible season for the Eagles, but Davis wasn't as immediately impactful during his rookie campaign as his college tape would have suggested. He was sidelined in midseason by a high ankle sprain, and when the Eagles added Ndamukong Suh and Linval Joseph during his time on injured reserve, he didn't regain his role. After playing about 33% of the defensive snaps before his injury, he was down to 18% after returning. Most of his playoff playing time came with the Eagles leading by multiple scores in the second half.
With Suh and Joseph off the roster, Davis will assume a larger role as the team's primary nose tackle. Fletcher Cox and Jalen Carter will be in place to try and create pass-rushing opportunities on the interior, so that won't be Davis' primary responsibility, but he needs to help improve Philadelphia's rush defense. The Eagles had the league's seventh-worst success rate on rush defense last season and were the league's worst defense in power situations. Davis can play an essential role in helping them firm up on the ground.
Zach Tom, OL, Packers
I have Tom listed as an offensive lineman because it's unclear exactly where he will play in 2023. As a rookie, he lined up everywhere but center at one point or another, including stretches protecting Aaron Rodgers' blindside at left tackle. He finished the season allowing just one sack and without committing a single penalty.
After starting camp at right tackle, Tom has been taking snaps as Green Bay's first-team center. Blessed with a healthy offensive line for the first time in years, the Packers seem to be trying to find scenarios where Tom and 2022 breakout lineman Yosh Nijman can be on the field simultaneously. It's unclear where Tom will end up playing in the long term, but he appears to be the latest in a series of midround linemen to turn into standouts for the Packers.
Cam Taylor-Britt, CB, Bengals
The Bengals' secondary is in flux. Starting safeties Jessie Bates III and Vonn Bell and cornerback Eli Apple all left in free agency. Chidobe Awuzie is coming back after tearing an ACL. Veteran Mike Hilton is back in the slot -- and they have multiple high draft picks to insert in the lineup -- but this secondary will need somebody to rely upon early in the season.
The key player is Taylor-Britt, who filled in for Apple and then Awuzie after missing the first six games of 2022. The second-rounder was an every-down player from Week 8 onward, allowing a 102.9 passer rating in coverage, per Pro Football Reference. He got better as the season went along. According to NFL Next Gen Stats, he allowed a completion percentage of 16.8 points under expectation over the final month of the season, a stretch which included playoff games against the Bills and Chiefs.
Now, Taylor-Britt enters the season as an essential starter. The Bengals don't get their titanic battle with the Chiefs until New Year's Eve, but they'll get the Browns, Ravens, Rams and Seahawks before their Week 7 bye. Last season, coach Zac Taylor's team couldn't carry over their white-hot end to 2021 into a hot start in 2022. If Cincinnati wants to pull that off this season, it will need Taylor-Britt and his fellow young teammates in the secondary to hit the ground running.
Martin Emerson, CB, Browns
There weren't many Browns defenders who came out of last season looking like winners. Myles Garrett had another dominant season as usual, but Denzel Ward, John Johnson III and Jeremiah Owusu-Koramoah didn't live up to expectations. Deshaun Watson's play attracted attention, but even with his dismal stretch after returning from a suspension, the Browns ranked eighth in the NFL in DVOA. They missed out on a postseason berth because the defense didn't help coach Kevin Stefanski's team win games.
One of the few exceptions who had a promising 2022 was Emerson, the team's best cornerback for stretches as a rookie. The third-round pick spent most of his time in the slot, but he also moved around the field, most notably limiting Mike Evans to 31 yards on nine targets in a November victory over the Buccaneers. He finished the season with a 77.6 passer rating allowed in coverage. New defensive coordinator Jim Schwartz thrived in Philadelphia when the Eagles unexpectedly got a career season out of corner Patrick Robinson in the slot in 2017; Emerson has to be equally valuable to the Browns to get their defense right this season.
Cobie Durant, CB, Rams
To say that the Rams are rebuilding on defense would be an understatement. Three of the 14 defenders who played 35% or more of the defensive snaps during their run to a Super Bowl in 2021 are still on the roster. Their only projected regular in the secondary who isn't on a rookie deal is cornerback Ahkello Witherspoon, who signed for just over the minimum in June. Their roster looks like an attempt to isolate just how dominant defensive tackle Aaron Donald can play when he's surrounded by 10 players who aren't household names.
Coordinator Raheem Morris & Co. need to find building blocks around Donald on defense by the end of the season, and Durant seems well-positioned to become one of those success stories. The fourth-round pick impressed on 281 snaps as a rookie a year ago, intercepting three passes and taking one of them to the house. Now, he'll move into the "Star" role in the Vic Fangio-style defense Morris oversees for the Rams, taking over for departed superstar Jalen Ramsey.
Expecting Ramsey's mix of coverage ability and toughness would be a big ask, but if Durant can grow into that role as 2023 rolls along, it'll give the Rams a much-needed solution at a key position on their defense.
