Wagerallsports
- Joined
- Mar 6, 2018
- Messages
- 60,742
NFL picks and best bets for Week 9: How will Packers, Titans fare without Aaron Rodgers, Derrick Henry?
ESPN PLUS $ MATERIALWe are deprived of a superstar showdown between Patrick Mahomes and Aaron Rodgers, but the Chiefs hosting the Packers as 7.5-point favorites (it had reached as high as 8.5) will still generate a great deal of betting handle.
"There are only three afternoon games. It's still the Packers and Chiefs. Even though Rodgers isn't going to play, that's going to be a big game for us," Jeff Stoneback, the director of BetMGM sportsbooks in Nevada, told ESPN.
Kansas City is just 4-15 ATS in its past 19 games, dating back to last season and including the playoffs. During this run, the public typically has remained steadfast on backing the Chiefs, despite the non-covers. But not anymore.
"Even though the Chiefs weren't covering, they were still winning. But now, they've actually been losing those games and that's made a difference with the public," Stoneback said. "The last thing in the public's head is K.C. barely beating a poor Giants team. Figuring to get a touchdown to start, the public money will probably be on the Packers."
Every Friday during the season, betting analysts Doug Kezirian (11-14-2, 1-1 last week), Tyler Fulghum (7-17, 1-1), Joe Fortenbaugh (31-15-1, 3-2) and Anita Marks (139-104, 15-14), Fantasy and Sports Betting analyst Eric Moody (56-43, 13-11), ESPN Stats & Information's Seth Walder (34-34, 6-0) and Mackenzie Kraemer (2-7, 0-0), sports betting deputy editor David Bearman (17-12-1, 2-1) and Football Outsiders' Aaron Schatz (28-18, 4-2) will provide their top plays across the NFL landscape.
Here are their best bets for Week 9 of the NFL season.
Note: Lines from Caesars Sportsbook as of Thursday (unless otherwise indicated).
1 p.m. ET games
Cleveland Browns at Cincinnati Bengals (-2.5, 47)
Schatz: The Bengals took a huge tumble in the Football Outsiders DVOA ratings after losing to the Jets, falling from ninth overall to 21st in one week. That loss exposed a number of issues for the Bengals, particularly tackling on defense. But it's not the reason the Bengals are behind the Browns in DVOA. Cleveland was already the higher team before the loss.A big reason the Bengals have looked more impressive than the Browns is schedule strength. The Bengals have played the third-easiest schedule of opposing defenses, while the Browns have played a slightly harder-than-average schedule. Yet it is the Browns who have a higher offensive success rate and fewer turnovers.
Look for the Browns to harass Joe Burrow; they rank second in pass rush win rate while the Bengals are just 23rd in pass block win rate. I know the Browns are dealing with some injuries right now, but their running game and pass rush are still going strong, and I like them to cover this spread. A money line bet for them to win outright would make sense too.
Pick: Browns +2.5
Walder: Ja'Marr Chase has posted amazing numbers as a rookie, despite less than amazing opportunity. He commands a target on 23% of his routes, which ranks 30th among wide receivers with at least 100 routes run. He lags well behind Deebo Samuel or Cooper Kupp at 34% and even fellow rookies Kadarius Toney and Rondale Moore at 29% and 26%, respectively. Chase has converted his opportunities into receiving yards at an incredibly high rate, but I'm not sure how sustainable that is. His expected yards per game has been just 51.4. He'll probably still outperform that number going forward, but to expect him to outperform by over 20 yards per game seems extreme.
Pick: Chase under 73.5 receiving yards (-115)
Marks: The Bengals did not know what to expect from Mike White last week, but they know what to expect from Baker Mayfield, who is playing injured. This is a nice bounce-back game for Cincy at home. The Odell Beckham Jr. drama made the Browns a media hub this week, full of distractions. Burrow and Chase are excellent against man coverage, and they will see a lot of it from the Browns on Sunday.
Picks: Bengals -2.5, Burrow over 33.5 passing attempts (+115), Burrow over 5.5 rushing yards (-105), Chase over 5.5 receptions (+115)
Denver Broncos at Dallas Cowboys (-10, 49.5)
Walder: FPI's mean predicted point differential for this game is Dallas by 7, but its median -- what it would make the line if it had to set one -- is Dallas by 6. That's an awfully large difference from the actual line!The Cowboys have been excellent this season and outrank Denver in expected points added per play on both offense and defense, despite playing a harder schedule. But FPI knows that and still finds a double-digit spread way off the mark. The model doesn't know Von Miller has been shipped off to Los Angeles, but at this stage of his career, I don't think Miller would have that large of an impact on the spread. This line has moved up over the course of the week, and I'm trusting FPI that it's now too high.
Schatz: The Bengals took a huge tumble in the Football Outsiders DVOA ratings after losing to the Jets, falling from ninth overall to 21st in one week. That loss exposed a number of issues for the Bengals, particularly tackling on defense. But it's not the reason the Bengals are behind the Browns in DVOA. Cleveland was already the higher team before the loss.
A big reason the Bengals have looked more impressive than the Browns is schedule strength. The Bengals have played the third-easiest schedule of opposing defenses, while the Browns have played a slightly harder-than-average schedule. Yet it is the Browns who have a higher offensive success rate and fewer turnovers.
Look for the Browns to harass Joe Burrow; they rank second in pass rush win rate while the Bengals are just 23rd in pass block win rate. I know the Browns are dealing with some injuries right now, but their running game and pass rush are still going strong, and I like them to cover this spread. A money line bet for them to win outright would make sense too.
Pick: Browns +2.5
Walder: Ja'Marr Chase has posted amazing numbers as a rookie, despite less than amazing opportunity. He commands a target on 23% of his routes, which ranks 30th among wide receivers with at least 100 routes run. He lags well behind Deebo Samuel or Cooper Kupp at 34% and even fellow rookies Kadarius Toney and Rondale Moore at 29% and 26%, respectively. Chase has converted his opportunities into receiving yards at an incredibly high rate, but I'm not sure how sustainable that is. His expected yards per game has been just 51.4. He'll probably still outperform that number going forward, but to expect him to outperform by over 20 yards per game seems extreme.
Pick: Chase under 73.5 receiving yards (-115)
Marks: The Bengals did not know what to expect from Mike White last week, but they know what to expect from Baker Mayfield, who is playing injured. This is a nice bounce-back game for Cincy at home. The Odell Beckham Jr. drama made the Browns a media hub this week, full of distractions. Burrow and Chase are excellent against man coverage, and they will see a lot of it from the Browns on Sunday.
Picks: Bengals -2.5, Burrow over 33.5 passing attempts (+115), Burrow over 5.5 rushing yards (-105), Chase over 5.5 receptions (+115)
Denver Broncos at Dallas Cowboys (-10, 49.5)
Walder: FPI's mean predicted point differential for this game is Dallas by 7, but its median -- what it would make the line if it had to set one -- is Dallas by 6. That's an awfully large difference from the actual line!The Cowboys have been excellent this season and outrank Denver in expected points added per play on both offense and defense, despite playing a harder schedule. But FPI knows that and still finds a double-digit spread way off the mark. The model doesn't know Von Miller has been shipped off to Los Angeles, but at this stage of his career, I don't think Miller would have that large of an impact on the spread. This line has moved up over the course of the week, and I'm trusting FPI that it's now too high.
Pick: Broncos +10
Schatz: With the trade of Von Miller to the Rams, the Broncos are sort of folding on the season, but they've been far from one of the worst teams in the league so far this year. In particular, the Broncos have put up an above-average offense (13th in DVOA) despite a number of injuries to their receivers. Jerry Jeudy is back, helping to charge up the offense further. The defense has underperformed expectations, ranking just 25th in DVOA so far, but with a high variance (the Broncos have mixed good defensive days with lousy ones). Variance is good for an underdog, giving it a better chance of outplaying (or covering against) a better team. Make no mistake, the Cowboys are the better team here, currently fifth in the league in overall DVOA. But 10 points is a really big line that the Cowboys failed to clear against other average teams such as the Chargers and Patriots.
Pick: Broncos +10
Moody: Broncos running backs have averaged 27.7 opportunities (rushing attempts plus targets) and 130.8 total yards per game this season. Melvin Gordon III (13.8) and Javonte Williams (13) have handled the majority of those opportunities. The Broncos' offensive line has an edge over the Cowboys' defensive line, and in an effort to contain the Cowboys' blazing offense, Denver will rely on this edge. Running backs have averaged 111.4 yards per game against Dallas' defense. Both Gordon and Williams are talented enough to propel the Broncos past that mark.
Picks: Gordon over 58.5 rushing/receiving yards (-110), Williams over 63.5 rushing/receiving yards (-110)
Houston Texans at Miami Dolphins (-6.5, 46)
Bearman: As a long-suffering Dolphins fan, I finally learned to channel my inner frustrations and fade them. It worked last week when they were laying two TDs at Buffalo, and I'm going right back to the well this week. Anyone who has painfully watched the Dolphins this season knows they shouldn't be favored by nearly a TD over anyone. This is a team that is averaging 17.3 PPG (28th) and is no higher than 30th in any yards per game or per play category. Since covering in two of their first three games, the Dolphins have failed to help any backers in their past five contests and enter with a league-worst -7.6 points per game cover margin. Not exactly a team you want to lay anything with, let alone almost a TD.Of course, the Texans are actually worse offensively, averaging under 15 points per game and 281 yards per game. But they somehow have managed to cover in four of the eight games this season. Now they get back QB Tyrod Taylor, who has covered in each of his past eight games, including the postseason. I liked the points before Tyrod and love them more now. With Taylor, a money line sprinkle at +225 is in store.
The two teams also rank next to last and dead last in ESPN's pass block win rate metric, which has contributed to both teams' offensive struggles. With the teams averaging a combined 32 points per game, I am not expecting them to reach the 46 points, but it should be noted that both defenses are awful too. With a battle between two of the worst teams in football this season, I am going to want the touchdown, the under and some antacid for this one.
Pick: Texans +6.5, under 46
Moody: Myles Gaskin has averaged 15.2 opportunities (rushing attempts plus targets) and 61.2 total yards over the past five games. It appears he'll receive the majority of touches in the Dolphins' backfield until Malcolm Brown returns, and he has a favorable matchup against the Texans' defense. Creating running lanes for Gaskin should be no problem for Miami's offensive line. Over the past five games, Darrell Henderson, James Conner, Jonathan Taylor, Damien Harris and Zack Moss all had success running the football against the Texans, averaging 13.2 rushing attempts and 83.6 rushing yards per game.
Picks: Gaskins over 11.5 rushing attempts (-125), over 54.5 rushing yards (-115)
Marks: The Dolphins' backfield has a juicy matchup against a Texans rushing defense that is allowing the most rushing yards to opposing backs. Brown's injury opens the door for Gaskin to be the lead back for Miami in what should create a positive game script in the second half.
Picks: Gaskin over 11.5 attempts (-125), Gaskins over 54.5 rushing yards (-115)
Atlanta Falcons at New Orleans Saints (-6, 42)
Moody: Matt Ryan had his worst game of the season last week. Against the Panthers, he completed 20 of 27 passes for 146 yards, one touchdown and two interceptions. During Weeks 2 through 7, he averaged 300.8 passing yards per game. Despite the absence of Calvin Ridley, Ryan will face a Saints defense that has allowed an average of 292 passing yards and 1.4 passing touchdowns per game over its past five games to Tom Brady, Geno Smith, Taylor Heinicke, Daniel Jones and Mac Jones.Cordarrelle Patterson has averaged 16 opportunities (rushing attempts plus targets) and 89 total yards per game so far this season. Ridley will not be in the lineup against the Saints, so Patterson could exceed those averages. Patterson said that head coach Arthur Smith and the offensive staff "are really embracing the player I can be." He will be given all the touches he can handle against the Saints as a running back and receiver.
Picks: Ryan over 256.5 passing yards (-115), Ryan over 1.5 passing TDs (+105), Patterson over 72.5 rushing/receiving yards (-110)
Marks: The Saints should have Taysom Hill under center this week, and I'm excited to see what he can do against a subpar Falcons defense. Meanwhile, the Saints' red zone defense is the best in the NFL, which will make it difficult for the Falcons to keep pace with Hill and Alvin Kamara.
Pick: Saints/Ravens money line parlay (-120), Patterson under 72.5 rushing/receiving yards (-110)
Las Vegas Raiders (-3, 46) at New York Giants
Marks: The Giants have dealt with false and positive COVID tests all week, which has disrupted their practice schedule. Saquon Barkley will not return until after the bye week. The Raiders are coming off a bye, while the Giants, who are dealing with a number of injuries on both sides of the ball, are on a short work week. Sterling Shepard will be inactive this Sunday, therefore Kadarius Toney should get the lion's share of targets, as he did in Weeks 4 and 5 (22 total targets) when Shepard was inactive. Expect Bryan Edwards to replace Henry Ruggs in stretching the field for the Raiders' passing attack.
Picks: Raiders -3, Edwards longest reception over 20.5 yards (-110)
Moody: It has been a career season for Derek Carr. The quarterback has averaged 324.1 passing yards per game and thrown for 320 yards or more in five of his seven games. Henry Ruggs III was recently released, but Carr still has Darren Waller, Bryan Edwards, and Hunter Renfrow among his receiving weapons. Although the Giants allow only 245.4 passing yards per game this season, Patrick Mahomes threw for 275 yards last week and Dak Prescott threw for 302 weeks earlier. Against New York, Carr should be able to accumulate plenty of yards through the air.
Heading into the Raiders Week 7 matchup against the Eagles, Darren Waller was added to the injury report with an ankle injury. With a bye week, he had enough time to recover and is expected to play against the Giants. In six active games this season, Waller has averaged nine targets and 63 receiving yards per game. With Ruggs gone, he could see 10 targets or more against the Giants. Waller's averaged 11.5 yards per reception.
Picks: Derek Carr over 280.5 passing yards (-115), Darren Waller over 59.5 receiving yards (-115)
New England Patriots (-3.5, 41) at Carolina Panthers
Fulghum: Regardless of who is playing QB for the Panthers in this one, we know we have Bill Belichick and his improving defense against the unproven P.J. Walker or the floundering Sam Darnold, who famously saw "ghosts" against a Patriots defense a few seasons ago. Helping this game go under on the other side is the Panthers' defense, which has been consistently stingy this season, ranking second in the NFL and allowing just 5.03 yards per play. First team to 20 wins.Pick: Under 41
Marks: The Panthers are dealing with a plethora of injuries on offense. Darnold and wide receivers Robby Anderson and Terrace Marshall Jr. are not expected to play. Carolina's offense started strong but has fizzled, and this week the Panthers face a Pats defense that caused Darnold to see "ghosts" two years ago. I expect much of the same.
Picks: Patriots -3.5
Buffalo Bills (-14.5, 48.5) at Jacksonville Jaguars
Fulghum: The Bills' offense was slightly disappointing last week against Miami at home before adding a cosmetic score late in the game. Makeup won't be needed this weekend in Jacksonville. The Jags' defense is ranked bottom-five in the NFL in just about every significant pass defense category. Josh Allen & Co. should absolutely eat in a juicy matchup, and that doesn't even account for the possibility that Buffalo's No. 1-ranked defense might find a score against rookie QB Trevor Lawrence.Pick: Bills over 3.5 team TDs (-120)
Moody: Josh Allen has averaged 283.4 passing yards per game since the start of the 2020 season. It includes two games with 400 or more yards and nine games with 300 or more passing yards. Since 2020, Stefon Diggs has averaged 10.1 targets and 88.6 receiving yards per game. Allen and Diggs face a Jaguars defense that has yielded 278.1 passing yards to opponents. As a result, the Bills offensive line stands to benefit from a significant advantage over Jacksonville's defensive front, which will provide Allen with more time to deliver the ball.
Picks: Josh Allen over 286.5 passing yards (-115), Stefon Diggs over 83.5 passing yards (-115)
Minnesota Vikings at Baltimore Ravens (-6, 49.5)
Fortenbaugh: As the head coach of the Ravens, John Harbaugh is a highly profitable 9-4 against the spread when coming off the bye week. Meanwhile, Minnesota has been its typical Jekyll and Hyde act this season, allowing just 17 points per game when playing at home as opposed to an alarming 29 points per game when playing on the road. Take note that Minnesota has covered the number in just three of its past 14 games.Pick: Ravens -6, Ravens PK in 6-point teaser with Rams -1.5
Marks: I'm done backing Kirk Cousins against teams above .500. The Ravens are coming off a bye and are healthy and ready to take the second half of the season by storm. Lamar Jackson and his receiving corps should have a field day against this Vikings secondary, especially with Minnesota without defensive back Danielle Hunter.
Pick: Ravens/Saints money line parlay (-120)
Moody: This season, Kirk Cousins has averaged 279 passing yards per game. Against the Cowboys last week, he had a season-low 184 passing yards as the Vikings struggled to maintain drives. Against a Ravens defense that allowed Joe Burrow (416 yards) and Carson Wentz (402) to throw for over 400 yards, Cousins has a great chance of bouncing back. Justin Jefferson averages 9.1 targets and 80.4 receiving yards per game. In his last game against a Baltimore defense, Ja'Marr Chase caught eight of 10 targets for 201 receiving yards.
Picks: Cousins over 275.5 passing yards (-115), Jefferson over 73.5 receiving yards (-115)
