NFL picks and best bets for Week 7

[Bettor Days]

NFL picks and best bets for Week 7: Can the Packers continue rolling?​

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Very few people shed tears for sportsbooks, but it is still worth noting when they lose, especially on back-to-back weeks. That's the streak right now for the house as the NFL enters Week 7.

"We're not doing anything differently whatsoever. If we lose big this Sunday, we'll take the same approach next Sunday," SuperBook executive director John Murray told ESPN, also sharing that executives are not overreacting either. "We're not under any more of a microscope than we were two weeks ago. Really, nothing has changed."

This particular card does not present a clear path to victory. The public typically avoids games involving double-digit point spreads, and Sunday features three such games. The prime-time games also do not appear to drive unusually high handle. The swing games figure to be Green Bay (-7.5) hosting Washington and Las Vegas (-3) hosting Philadelphia.

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Every Friday during the season, betting analysts Doug Kezirian (10-12-2, 1-3 last week), Tyler Fulghum (6-15, 0-6), Joe Fortenbaugh (23-12-1, 1-4) and Anita Marks (110-75, 9-16), Fantasy and Sports Betting analyst Eric Moody (33-22, 13-11), ESPN Stats & Information's Seth Walder (26-31, 4-6) and Mackenzie Kraemer (1-6, 0-2), sports betting deputy editor David Bearman (13-9-1, 1-3) and Football Outsiders' Aaron Schatz (21-15, 3-4) will provide their top plays across the NFL landscape.

Here are their best bets for Week 7 of the NFL season.

Note: Lines from Caesars Sportsbook as of Thursday (unless otherwise indicated).

1 p.m. ET games​

Kansas City Chiefs (-5.5, 57.5) at Tennessee Titans​

Moody: In 51 active games since 2018, Patrick Mahomes has averaged 308.9 passing yards. This season he is averaging 345.2 passing yards per game and has eclipsed 325 yards three times. The Titans' defense is giving up 276.3 passing yards per game, the ninth most in the NFL. Although the Chiefs' offense has been up and down all season, I think they'll use this matchup against the Titans' burnable secondary as an opportunity to operate at full capacity for four consecutive quarters. Last week, Josh Allen torched Tennessee for 353 yards through the air.



The Titans' offense will be in a race to keep up with the Chiefs' offense. Ryan Tannehill has passed for 275 or more yards only twice this season, but he'll be able to rely on A.J. Brown and Julio Jones against the Chiefs, whose secondary allows the seventh-most yardage through the air (277.3 YPG).

Pick: Mahomes over 325.50 passing yards (-115), Tannehill over 249.5 passing yards (-115)

Marks: The Titans are coming off an emotional win and are on a short workweek. Imagine having to face Josh Allen and Patrick Mahomes in back-to-back weeks with a depleted secondary? Good luck with that. Mahomes and crew should move the ball at will. Even if the Titans control time of possession, I still have KC scoring over 30 points.

Pick: Chiefs TT over 30.5 (-120), Mahomes over 2.5 TDs (-140)

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Washington Football Team at Green Bay Packers (-8.5, 49)​

Bearman: Stop me if you've heard this before ... I am taking the Packers. Since the Week 1 loss to the Saints, Green Bay is 5-0 ATS, winning by over a TD per game. That includes impressive road covers the past two weeks in Cincinnati and Chicago. The Packers return home to face a Washington team that is among the most disappointing in football this season. Once thought to be a sneaky NFC East play, Washington has two wins against one-win teams in the Giants and Falcons. Washington is 1-5 against the spread with a cover margin of -7, second-worst to the Miami Dolphins. The defense has been particularly disappointing, ranking 29th in Football Outsiders' DVOA, 31st in total yards allowed and dead last in passing defense and scoring, allowing over 300 pass yards and 31 points per game to opposing offenses. If you think Aaron Rodgers enjoyed his win in Chicago, wait until he sees Washington's defense. If you are thinking 9-10 points is a lot ... Washington is winless as underdogs of seven or more under Ron Rivera.

Pick: Packers -8.5, Packers team total over 29.5

Walder: This play is strictly about the number. The line on Allen Lazard's receiving yards (30.5) is a decent bit higher than what I'd expect given his expected receiving yards this season -- a combination of expected completed air yards and expected YAC, from NFL Next Gen Stats. Typically, a player's average expected receiving yards per game will be right around or slightly exceed his line. That's because expected receiving yards is a mean, and betting lines are medians. But Lazard is averaging just over 22 expected receiving yards per game. That's enough for me to fade.

Pick: Lazard under 30.5 receiving yards (-115)

Moody: Despite injuries decimating the offensive line, the Packers sit at 5-1, though the schedule gets more difficult over the next few weeks. Aaron Rodgers is averaging 243.2 passing yards per game and has one game over 300 yards. With that game removed, he has averaged only 218.4 passing yards per game. Additionally, Rodgers has struggled under pressure. So far this season, he has been under pressure on 28.3% of his dropbacks, according to Pro Football Focus, and his passer rating on those 58 dropbacks is 35.9. Washington's secondary is its biggest weakness. Rodgers, however, might have trouble with Washington's pass rush, which is underrated.

Pick: Rodgers under 253.5 passing yards (-115)

Marks: The WFT is an infirmary at the moment and will struggle to keep pace with Aaron Rodgers and his crew. Washington has allowed a league-high seven TDs from outside the red zone, so expect Rodgers to put up some good stats while he looks to Davante Adams, who is averaging 24% of the target share on offense.

Pick: Packers -1.5 in a 2-team teaser with Patriots -1, Rodgers over 1.5 pass TDs (-200), AJ Dillon over 9.5 rec yards (-115), Adams over 7.5 receptions

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Atlanta Falcons (-2.5, 47.5) at Miami Dolphins​

Schatz: Put aside win-loss records; our play-by-play analysis with DVOA suggests that the Falcons have been the worst team in the NFL this season. They've been outscored by 43 points against one of the five easiest schedules in the league so far. We rank Atlanta 29th on offense, 30th on defense and dead last on special teams.

Miami isn't much better at 28th overall, 30th on offense, 26th on defense and 23rd on special teams. But the offensive ranking here is what matters, because most of that came with backup Jacoby Brissett. There's a general consensus around the league that Tua Tagovailoa has been a disappointment, but the numbers don't really back that up. Tagovailoa had a very average rookie season, finishing 20th in passing DVOA out of 54 first-round rookie passers since 1983. This year, in a small sample size, he has been better than Brissett. His performance last weekend was not the reason for the upset by Jacksonville. Yes, he threw a bad pick, but the running game was awful and the defense also played poorly.

We're also still using some preseason data when making picks, because five or six games is a small sample. Miami was projected to be better than Atlanta going into the season, and the Dolphins have been better than the Falcons during the season. And they're better than that now that the starting quarterback is healthy. The gap between these teams isn't large, but it's enough that Miami should be the favorite in this game, not a 2.5-point underdog.

Pick: Dolphins +2.5

Moody: Matt Ryan has thrown for 868 yards, eight touchdowns and zero interceptions over his past three games and now faces a reeling Dolphins defense. Per ESPN Stats & Information research, Ryan is now the eighth-most prolific passer in NFL history. Miami's defense allows the fourth-most passing yards per game, and I expect Ryan will continue to rely on Cordarrelle Patterson to move up the charts. Patterson has averaged 7.2 targets and 70.5 receiving yards over his past four games.

Pick: Ryan over 278.5 passing yards (-115), Patterson over 39.5 receiving yards (-130)

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New York Jets at New England Patriots (-7, 42.5)​

Bearman: I bet under 43 in this same matchup back in Week 2 and am going right back to the well. Zach Wilson threw four picks and handed the Patriots short fields all day and the Jets still scored only 25 points with the teams combining for 31 and less than 600 total yards. With all due respect to last week's "offensive explosion" vs. Dallas, I am still not buying the Patriots' offense. They still had only 14 points with six minutes left in the game and seven of those were on a short field after the Cowboys failed on fourth down on their first possession. The late fireworks made the score look a lot bigger than it was. It's still an offense that ranks 26th in yards and 27th in rushing. The Jets are even worse, coming in 31st in yards and rushing, 20th in passing and last in scoring at 13.4 points per game. Both teams also have respectable defenses, so I don't see a lot of points here.

Pick: Under 42.5

Fortenbaugh: Backing Bill Belichick against rookie quarterbacks has been a recipe for success over the past two decades, as the future Hall of Famer is now 23-6 straight up in that very specific situation. Against Wilson back in Week 2, New England's defense forced four interceptions and held the BYU product to just a 57.5% completion percentage. The Jets are coming off their bye week, but I don't think the extra prep time will be enough to counteract Belichick's advantage in this situation.

Pick: Patriots -7, Under 42.5, Patriots -1 in 6-point teaser with Packers -2.5

Moody: I think it's important to evaluate rookies, especially quarterbacks, game by game. Considering the Patriots' supporting cast, Mac Jones has shown more positives than negatives this season. The way he attacked the Cowboys' defense downfield last week was awesome. All four throws of 20 or more yards downfield were completed successfully, resulting in 144 yards and two touchdowns. Jones and the Patriots have a great matchup at home against the Jets, particularly for their slot receivers and tight ends. Now that he has gained more experience, Jones will top the 186 passing yards he had against the Jets earlier this season. Nelson Agholor and Hunter Henry have the best matchups. Agholor shouldn't have a problem getting separation from Jets cornerback Brandin Echols, and the linebackers will have trouble keeping up with Henry.

Pick: Jones over 246.5 passing yards (-115), Agholor over 2.5 receptions (-160), Henry over 3.5 receptions (-125)

Walder: The Patriots' offensive line has been a profound disappointment this season, ranking dead last in run block win rate, an ESPN metric using NFL Next Gen Stats. And while the Jets aren't good at much, one thing they can do is stop the run. Led by Foley Fatukasi, who ranks No. 1 in individual RSWR among interior defenders, the Jets are fourth in run stop win rate this season. It's going to be a tough running day for Damien Harris.

Pick: Harris under 64.5 rushing yards (-115)

Marks: The Jets and Patriots games are both averaging a combined 42 points or fewer, therefore the under is the play here. The Jets are the only team that has not scored a point in the first quarter, and it doesn't get any easier this week against Bill Belichick. I'm teasing it up with the Panthers and Giants.

Pick: Jets/Patriots under 49 in 2-team teaser with Giants/Panthers under 49

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Carolina Panthers (-3, 43) at New York Giants​

Fortenbaugh: The New York offense is severely banged up and has been held to 20 or fewer points in three of its past four outings. That's bad news against a Carolina squad that ranks sixth in the NFL in both scoring defense and opponent yards per play. Additionally, note that the Panthers rank 22nd in pace, so they're not exactly snapping the football at breakneck speeds. But the most important factor in this handicap is New York's run defense, which currently ranks 29th in the NFL (137.2 YPG). Carolina head coach Matt Rhule would like nothing more than to feature a heavy dose of the Panthers' rushing attack in an effort to prevent quarterback Sam Darnold from continuing to throw interceptions, as the team's signal-caller has been picked six times over his past three outings.

Pick: Under 43

Moody: Adoree' Jackson is having a great season for the Giants, averaging 5.16 tackles plus assists per game. Jackson will have to deal with D.J. Moore, who has beaten zone coverage all season and is getting 10.5 targets per game from Darnold. Jackson should have plenty of tackle opportunities.

Pick: Jackson over 4.5 total tackles/assists (-105)

Marks: The Giants struggle to score touchdowns in the red zone and the Panthers are one of the lowest-paced teams in the league. Hubbard has become the featured back with McCaffrey on IR, and is seeing a heavier workload each week.

Pick: Giants/Panthers under 49 in 2-team teaser with Jets/Patriots under 49

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Cincinnati Bengals at Baltimore Ravens (-6.5, 47)​

Fortenbaugh: Everybody knows about the success Cincinnati quarterback Joe Burrow and wide receiver Ja'Marr Chase have been having this season, but did you know the Bengals' defense currently ranks sixth in the NFL in both scoring defense and opponent yards per play? This is one of the more underrated units in the league and one of the primary reasons I'm backing the underdog in this spot. Remember, Cincinnati sees Lamar Jackson twice a year. I'm not saying the Bengals have the answer for the 2019 MVP, but I do believe they can frustrate him just enough to make this a close game. Take note that the Bengals have covered the number in five of their past seven trips to Baltimore.

Pick: Bengals +6.5

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[Bettor Days]

4 p.m. ET games​

Chicago Bears at Tampa Bay Buccaneers (-12.5, 47)​

Kezirian: For the third straight week, I will be fading the Bucs. That's because the injuries to their secondary have made this defense vastly different from the one we saw dominate the Super Bowl. The question is whether rookie QB Justin Fields has the skill and knowledge to capitalize. I am going to grab double-digit points because I believe in Fields enough, and the Chicago defense should be capable of keeping the Tampa Bay offense somewhat in check.

Pick: Bears +12.5

Schatz: Is Allen Robinson fading as a No. 1 target? A lack of efficiency this year can be blamed on the Chicago quarterback situation, but more surprising is the drop in targets for Robinson. He's on pace for only 102 targets this season after topping 150 in each of the past two years. Robinson has gone under this yardage prop in five of six games this season, averaging just 39 yards per game. Meanwhile, Tampa Bay is averaging 59 yards per game by opposing No. 1 receivers, but that is heavily impacted by Amari Cooper's 139 yards in Week 1. No. 1 receivers have gone under this prop in four of six games against Tampa.

Pick: Robinson under 56.5 receiving yards (-115)

Moody: As a starter, Fields averages only 140.5 passing yards per game. Despite the Buccaneers' defense allowing opponents the sixth-most passing yards per game, the Bears' bigger concern is their own offensive line. The front seven of Tampa Bay should be able to apply pressure in this game, and Fields has struggled when pressured. According to PFF, the rookie has been under pressure on 40.8% of his dropbacks and has a passer rating of 27.2 on those 53 dropbacks. Fields could be in trouble.

Pick: Fields under 213.5 passing yards (-115)

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Philadelphia Eagles at Las Vegas Raiders (-3, 49)​

Kraemer: This is a strong situation for the Eagles on paper. The Raiders are coming off an emotional few weeks, culminating in a win last week against Denver on the road. Meanwhile, the Eagles are starting to get healthier and likely will see the return of OT Lane Johnson, and they have an extra few days to prepare, having played last Thursday. The Raiders' offense relies on big plays -- they have the second-most completions of at least 20 air yards -- but the Eagles' defense thrives at stopping the deep ball, allowing the fewest air yards per attempt in the NFL. The Eagles also have an edge in the trenches, ranking fourth in pass rush win rate, while the Raiders rank 23rd in pass block win rate. With both teams of similar quality (FPI views them as the 22nd- and 23rd-best teams) and the Eagles having the situational advantage, I will take the three points with the Eagles, particularly in a league where home-field advantage has been nonexistent.

Pick: Eagles +3

Moody: Darren Waller has not been actively involved in the Raiders' offense since Week 1, when he was targeted 19 times and recorded 105 yards. In fact, he is averaging seven targets and 4.6 catches for 54.6 yards per game since then. When you look at his statistical résumé with the Raiders over the past few seasons, he bounces back sooner than later. Since 2019, Waller has been targeted 317 times and has gained 2,716 receiving yards, the most among Raiders offensive players. There's no reason to doubt that Waller will remain an integral part of Oakland's offense, and this week's matchup against Philadelphia's linebackers (especially Eric Wilson) will be beneficial for him.

Pick: Waller over 58.5 receiving yards (-120)

Marks: The Raiders surprised me last week, playing with added motivation, instead of calling it quits. I expect that to carry over at home this week vs. the Eagles. Carr is leading the league with the most most completions of 20 yards or more, and incorporated a lot more play-action last week to spice things up a bit. The Raiders defense does not blitz much, and is good against the pass, so expect Hurts to rush more in order to move the chains.

Pick: Raiders -3, Hurts over 8.5 rushing attempts (-115)

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Detroit Lions at Los Angeles Rams (-15, 50.5)​

Fulghum: Forget about all the hoopla about these two QBs facing their old employers and look at the stats. The Rams lead the NFL in pressures this season, according to PFF. Jared Goff turns into a pumpkin against pressure (hello, Aaron Donald!). Matthew Stafford leads the NFL in QBR and the Lions rank dead last defensively in yards per attempt passing allowed. The backdoor cover might be open, but it's hard to see the Lions stopping the Rams or putting up multiple TDs on L.A.'s defense.

Pick: Rams -15

Moody: Stafford is living up to the offseason hype. It's fun to see him throw the football to Cooper Kupp and Robert Woods. Now he gets to play his old team, which from a film standpoint has one of the worst secondaries in the NFL. Sean McVay will let Stafford show off against his old team and lean heavily on the passing game. Stafford has averaged 306.3 passing yards per game this year.

Pick: Stafford over 290.5 passing yards (-115)

Marks: Stafford is going to have a field day against his old team, whose defense is allowing 15 yards per completion. 50% of Stafford's passes have gone for a first down or touchdown this season. The game script will be once the Rams establish a significant lead, Darrell Henderson will carry the rock a ton in the second half, while D'Andre Swift will be trying to help the Lions engineer a comeback in the fourth quarter.

Pick: Rams over 33.5 TT points, Stafford over 288.5 passing yards, over 2.5 TDs (+105), Henderson over 16.5 attempts, Swift over 4.5 receptions (-150)

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Houston Texans at Arizona Cardinals (-17.5, 47.5)​

Schatz: Both of these teams have been stronger on defense than offense this season. That sounds crazy given how well Kyler Murray has played for the Cardinals, but the Cardinals rank second in defensive DVOA and seventh in offensive DVOA. The Texans are below average on both sides of the ball, but their defense is close to average (20th), while the offense is horrendous (31st, and it would be dead last if we counted only games with Davis Mills as the quarterback). Arizona is ninth in situation-neutral pace, but the Cardinals slow things down significantly when they have a lead, ranking dead last in pace in the second half of games. It seems likely the Cardinals will take an early lead and then cruise to victory rather than running up the score in a rout.

Pick: Under 47.5

Walder: I'm running back the running back vs. Cover 2 prop here. Backs catch passes at a significantly higher rate when facing Cover 2 (19% of the time compared to 13% on average), which is the defense Houston runs far more often than any team in football. The only concern here is that the Cardinals might be winning by so much that they might not be inclined to pass. But the line is awfully small, so we're probably looking for just a single reception from James Conner here.

Pick: Conner over 5.5 receiving yards (-125)

Moody: DeAndre Hopkins is averaging 5.8 targets and 61.2 receiving yards per game this season. Last season, he averaged 8.9 targets and 80.6 receiving yards per game. Kyler Murray has spread the ball around, but Hopkins has the best cornerback matchup this week. It is likely that he will spend a large percentage of his offensive snaps lined up against Desmond King II. Given the friction between Hopkins and the Texans last season that led to his trade, Hopkins will want revenge on his former team. It would be best to deliver a vintage Nuk performance.

Pick: Hopkins over 67.5 receiving yards (-115)

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8:20 p.m. ET game​

Indianapolis Colts at San Francisco 49ers (-4, 44)​

Bearman: Give the Colts credit for getting up off the mat after the crushing Monday night loss to the Ravens. I easily could have seen them laying an egg on short rest vs. the lowly Texans, but they took care of business. Jonathan Taylor has 441 combined rushing and receiving yards and five TDs over the past three games, and Carson Wentz seems to have found his groove, completing 69% of his passes with six TDs and no interceptions in the same span. Indy covered in all three and should've won all outright.

The Niners are off a bye, which was needed after three consecutive losses. After winning the first two games of the season on the road, the 49ers looked less than impressive in losses to Green Bay, Seattle and Arizona. And this is not a good spot for them. They are 0-7 ATS as a home favorite the past two seasons, 3-14-2 under Kyle Shanahan at home and a ridiculously bad 4-23-2 against the number at home over the past seven seasons. I'd rather have my money on the hotter team getting points.

Pick: Colts +4


Moody: This is a great matchup for Ross Dwelley against the Colts. Jimmy Garoppolo will be under center, and Indianapolis has allowed some big games to tight ends this season. The Colts have allowed an average of six targets, 4.8 receptions and 56 receiving yards per game to Tyler Higbee, Geoff Swaim, Mike Gesicki, Mark Andrews and Jordan Akins so far this season.

Pick: Dwelley over 22.5 receiving yards (-115)

Marks: Wentz, when not pressured, is averaging over 11 yards per attempt. The 49ers are ranked 24th in pressure rate and 15th in sack rate, so expect Wentz to have another solid week. Jimmy Garoppolo is expected to get the start, but is dealing with a calf injury, and Trey Lance is still not practicing because of a knee injury. Deebo Samuel is getting 33% of the target share, and with Jimmy back under center he should stand out on Sunday night.

Pick: Colts +4, Samuel over 66.5 rec yards (-115), Kyle Juszczyk over 16.5 receiving yards (-115)