NFL Odds & Picks: Our Staff’s Best Bets on Thanksgiving

[biggins]

Bills​

vs.​

Lions​

John LanFranca: I believe the momentum the Lions are carrying into this game is simply too much to ignore. Their offense has scored 30-plus points in back-to-back weeks on the road en route to three straight outright victories as underdogs.

I find myself wondering if the Lions had beaten the Dolphins back in Week 8 (a game in which they had a 62% win expectancy in the second half), what the spread of this game would be. The Lions were 3.5 point dogs at home versus the Dolphins in that contest; are we sure the Bills are a full six points better than Miami? Since that game, the Lions’ pass defense ranks eighth in DVOA and the defense as a whole is clearly playing its best football.

In contrast, the Bills have some issues they are working through. Their defense, dealing with the injury bug, has given up 25.3 points per game over the last three. Buffalo has failed to cover in four straight games now, as it’s being priced as one of the top offenses in the NFL, but rank only 19th in pass offense DVOA over that time period (behind the Jets and Jaguars).

Not only is this line inflated, but the Lions are playing with a new level of confidence, carrying all of the momentum into their national spotlight game in their own building. Home underdogs of more than a touchdown are 6-0 against the spread this season. I expect a competitive game – play Detroit +10 alternate line -120 at Caesars (up to -125).

Pick

Lions +10

 

[biggins]

Giants​

vs.​

Cowboys​

Blake Krass: The Cowboys are coming off of an absolute trouncing of the Vikings, while the Giants are coming off of an embarrassing loss to the Lions. That sets up a perfect bounce-back spot for New York.

Daniel Jones has been fantastic in spots like this. He is 14-7 ATS (66.6%) in his career on the road. He is also an incredible 7-0 ATS on short rest since 2020, the best of any QB in the NFL. As a team, the Giants are a remarkable 5-1 ATS and SU as underdogs this season.

The Cowboys have not been successful on Thanksgiving. They are 1-10 ATS in their last 11 Thanksgiving games and Dak Prescott specifically is 1-4 ATS.

The Giants also match up reasonably well. While the Cowboys defense is elite, they are 10th in defensive rush DVOA, which pales in comparison to their No. 2 ranking in defensive pass DVOA. That benefits the run-first Giants. I expect both teams to lean on the run, limiting possessions and giving the dog a better chance to cover.

Pick	Giants +10 (bet to +7.5)

 

[biggins]

Patriots​

vs.​

Vikings​

Simon Hunter: What a gift from the gambling gods: Kirk Cousins in primetime on Thanksgiving.

How can we not bet the Patriots? The Vikings are 8-2 straight-up (SU) but have a negative point differential.

Bill Belichick has faced 11 teams in November or later with a record over .500 and a negative point differential. Those teams are 1-9 SU and 0-10 against the spread.

Belichick is a genius, which we all know, when it comes to shutting down subpar quarterbacks. No defensive mind has done it better. He made Zach Wilson lose his job. Now, give Belichick a top-three defensive line and we’ll see what he can do.

New England hasn’t given up a touchdown in its last two games, which is bad news for the Vikings.

Minnesota will be without All Pro offensive tackle Christian Darrisaw, who will be the third missing starter on the line. We saw the backups get torched last week against the Cowboys, who I have graded as a slightly better defensive team than the Patriots.

Look for New England to copy that Dallas game plan of rushing four and dropping everyone else into coverage.

On the Patriots offense, I like Rhamondre Stevenson to have a big game and for them to control the clock.

This number might get back to +3 since the public will be all over the Vikings. I’ll take it as long as it’s more than 2.

Pick	Patriots +2.5

 

[carolinakid]

Thanks for the info and have a great Thanksgiving Bigs

 

[BobbyFK]

Thanks Biggins! I am on Detroit and the Giants spreads