LONG READ BUT INTERESTING: Some of you may already have this knowledge....
I recently saw a video from a guy about betting Dogs in the NFL. Basically he is saying, if you're going to bet Dogs just bet them on ML and forget the spread. It makes you more $ long-term.
So far in 2022, using closing lines, Dogs have won/tied outright 19 times. Dogs have covered but lost 6 times. The average spread for Dogs has been ~5 pts this season which is roughly equivalent to +200 ML.
So what is the difference in units won betting the spread vs ML on Dogs? Let’s assume you’re a savant and hit every Dog bet. You’re not likely going to hit them all but the data will show if ML bets in general are better for you than spreads when betting dogs. You obviously still have to pick the right dogs but if you're going to bet dogs, you want to win max units long-term.
>>> For every dog SPREAD bet you would win 1 unit. Over the 25 games dogs have won this season ATS you would be up 25 units.
>>> Assuming you bet the same games but on the ML. You would have won 18 (its not 19 since one game was a tie) at an average of +200 odds and won 36 units or about 44% more than the spread plays.
Now, I’m using averages (e.g. spread line of -110 and an average spread of 5 which roughly equates to +200 ML odds) but it’s to show if the statement ML is a better play than Spreads for NFL dogs.
OK cool. Makes sense, at least for 2022.
Let’s back test a few years…. for years 2018 through 2021 the average closing line spread for dogs was 5.5, equivalent to ~+210 ML odds. Here's how the ML vs Spread return compares.
Now as I said, you're not going to be able to hand pick every dog correctly but its interesting that long-term betting dog ML's will make you ~40% more than playing dog Spreads.
I recently saw a video from a guy about betting Dogs in the NFL. Basically he is saying, if you're going to bet Dogs just bet them on ML and forget the spread. It makes you more $ long-term.
So far in 2022, using closing lines, Dogs have won/tied outright 19 times. Dogs have covered but lost 6 times. The average spread for Dogs has been ~5 pts this season which is roughly equivalent to +200 ML.
So what is the difference in units won betting the spread vs ML on Dogs? Let’s assume you’re a savant and hit every Dog bet. You’re not likely going to hit them all but the data will show if ML bets in general are better for you than spreads when betting dogs. You obviously still have to pick the right dogs but if you're going to bet dogs, you want to win max units long-term.
>>> For every dog SPREAD bet you would win 1 unit. Over the 25 games dogs have won this season ATS you would be up 25 units.
>>> Assuming you bet the same games but on the ML. You would have won 18 (its not 19 since one game was a tie) at an average of +200 odds and won 36 units or about 44% more than the spread plays.
Now, I’m using averages (e.g. spread line of -110 and an average spread of 5 which roughly equates to +200 ML odds) but it’s to show if the statement ML is a better play than Spreads for NFL dogs.
OK cool. Makes sense, at least for 2022.
Let’s back test a few years…. for years 2018 through 2021 the average closing line spread for dogs was 5.5, equivalent to ~+210 ML odds. Here's how the ML vs Spread return compares.
Now as I said, you're not going to be able to hand pick every dog correctly but its interesting that long-term betting dog ML's will make you ~40% more than playing dog Spreads.
