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Here’s where Carroll ranks among NFL coaches in preseason record ATS
LV REVIEW JOURNAL SUBSCRIPTIONRavens coach John Harbaugh clearly cared about winning exhibition games during Baltimore’s NFL-record 24-game winning streak in the preseason that ended in 2023.
Since then, it appears he couldn’t care less. The Ravens have lost four of their last five preseason games and are on an 0-7 slide against the spread.
“The NFL preseason is the only time in U.S. professional sports when you can bet a team and a coach that is trying to win against a team and a coach that does not care to win,” said WagerTalk handicapper Ralph Michaels (@CalSportsLV).
A key to success in NFL preseason betting — which has long been scorned as the domain of degenerates when in reality it’s dominated by sharps — is finding out which coaches want to win and which ones don’t care.
Raiders first-year coach Pete Carroll has historically wanted to win exhibition games. He has the third-best record among active coaches against the spread, going 28-20-1 (58.3 percent) in 13 preseasons with the Seahawks, according to Bet Labs.
Carroll compiled a 22-10 ATS record in his first eight preseasons in Seattle before finishing 6-10-1. He went 3-1 in his lone preseason with the Jets in 1994 and 3-1 in his first preseason with the Patriots in 1997.
“When Pete Carroll took over for Seattle, he made a point of winning preseason games. That’s something I’d be listening for in comments by the Raiders,” Westgate SuperBook oddsmaker Ed Salmons said. “But once Seattle got good, he didn’t care.
“You can make some educated guesses thinking certain new coaches are looking to win games. It’s just nothing more than listening to interviews and reading between the lines.”
Carroll is one of seven NFL coaches in their first year with a team that might try to start building a winning culture in the preseason. The other first-year coaches are Ben Johnson (Bears), Brian Schottenheimer (Cowboys), Liam Coen (Jaguars), Aaron Glenn (Jets), Mike Vrabel (Patriots) and Kellen Moore (Saints).
Play, fade
Harbaugh has a 38-22-1 ATS record in the preseason (63.3 percent), but Bills coach Sean McDermott has the highest winning percentage (68.2) with his 15-7-2 ATS mark.
On the flip side, Giants coach Brian Daboll enters the preseason on a 1-8 spread slide, while Commanders coach Dan Quinn is 6-18 ATS. Eagles coach Nick Sirianni is 4-7-1 ATS.
“I don’t think the Eagles have ever used their starters in a preseason game under (Sirianni),” Salmons said. “I don’t think the Rams have used a first-line player in the preseason in 10 years. But then again, it’s how good are your backups? They’ve got (quarterback Jimmy) Garoppolo. If he plays, he’s competent.”
Michaels recommends backing Buffalo under McDermott, who is on a 13-4 cover streak and 11-0 ATS as an underdog. He also suggests fading Bengals coach Zac Taylor and Browns coach Kevin Stefanski, who are a combined 1-10-1 ATS at home in the preseason and 4-16-2 straight up.
Hall of Fame Game
The Lions are consensus 1-point favorites over the Chargers in the Pro Football Hall of Fame Game on Thursday in Canton, Ohio. The total is 33 for the NFL’s annual preseason opener.
Los Angeles coach Jim Harbaugh is 11-8 ATS in his career in the preseason but went 1-2 last year in his first season with the Chargers.
Michaels leans toward taking Detroit and the over, which has cashed in the last three Hall of Fame games.
“I really think Detroit’s quarterback rotation is just too strong for me versus the Chargers,” he said. “You have a Detroit coach in (Dan) Campbell who the last two years has gone 4-2 against the spread (in the preseason) and 6-3 over-under the last three (preseasons). The Chargers just don’t care about the preseason.”
Michaels doesn’t expect Lions starting quarterback Jared Goff or Chargers starter Justin Herbert to play. He believes in Detroit backup quarterbacks Hendon Hooker and Kyle Allen more than L.A.’s backups, which include Trey Lance and DJ Uiagalelei.
Hooker completed 29 of his 44 passes for 300 yards, a touchdown and an interception for the Lions last preseason and also rushed for 138 yards and a score.
