Hey guys,
My name is Matt, and I started a site a couple of months back where I accumulate long-term NFL data to try and find relevant betting trends and statistics. Anyways, something kinda prominent I found was that teams that win 6 or more close games (games decided by 7 points or fewer) tend to underperform the following year. Since 2005, teams that won 6 or more close games experienced an average win drop of 2.01 wins the following year.
Here is the link to the data page on my site: No links Matt
What do you guys think of this? It makes sense to use in certain situations but doesn't seem to apply in others. For example, the Ravens won 6 close games in 2021, so they should regress from 8 wins to 6 wins in 2022 according to this trend. However, the Ravens were injured for the majority of the year, and likely won't experience win regression.
Thanks
My name is Matt, and I started a site a couple of months back where I accumulate long-term NFL data to try and find relevant betting trends and statistics. Anyways, something kinda prominent I found was that teams that win 6 or more close games (games decided by 7 points or fewer) tend to underperform the following year. Since 2005, teams that won 6 or more close games experienced an average win drop of 2.01 wins the following year.
Here is the link to the data page on my site: No links Matt
What do you guys think of this? It makes sense to use in certain situations but doesn't seem to apply in others. For example, the Ravens won 6 close games in 2021, so they should regress from 8 wins to 6 wins in 2022 according to this trend. However, the Ravens were injured for the majority of the year, and likely won't experience win regression.
Thanks
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