NFL chalk

[castelion]

14 games left in the regular season and according to my records favourites are 175-83, (67.8%). Are those the numbers you guys are seeing and is this an NFL record for favourites? Is it just a blip? Does this change game modelling going forward?

 

[KVB]

These are favorites that won on the moneyline, not necessarily covering the spread.

I agree with your numbers, but when it comes to favorites covering the spread it comes down to about 52.6%.

Not sure what you meant in the original post, but that's how I have it.

 

[KVB]

Hope all is well Caster, Happy New Year.

I'll try not to be a stranger around these parts this year if you'll do the same. Can't come visit you at SBR anymore, lol.

 

[JDS]

These are favorites that won on the moneyline, not necessarily covering the spread.

I agree with your numbers, but when it comes to favorites covering the spread it comes down to about 52.6%.

Not sure what you meant in the original post, but that's how I have it.

Any idea what is the average price for the ML favorites this year ?

 

[KVB]

Any idea what is the average price for the ML favorites this year ?

I was just about to post that.

-277.8 or -278 if we round, depends on the closer I guess.

This equals an implied win probability of 73.53%

Far below the 67.8% that actually played out but that's just the big picture. I feel like it's better if we group the moneylines into parts and breakdown those parts (like -250 to -400,. -500 and up, etc.)

I can post that too, but need a minute, I'm getting distracted lol.

 

[castelion]

Hope all is well Caster, Happy New Year.

I'll try not to be a stranger around these parts this year if you'll do the same. Can't come visit you at SBR anymore, lol.

Same to you KVB, and i'm hoping you're the real KVB. I had an unfortunate experience with a fake kvb here some years ago.

Thank you for the kind words. It wasn't data I was following per se. It was simply that I pick every favourite in Pick'em on ESPN for both Straight and Spread. It just a benchmark figure to see how well or badly the general public performs. It's an auto-pick so I claim no credit either for doing well or for doing badly. I was just surprised at how high the favourite win % was this year. I was also surprised at how few people matched or beat a simple benchmark.

 

[KVB]

Yes, I am the real KVB, uppercase and all.



I saw some of that dust up with Rudy and lowercase kvb, that was fukked up.

 

[castelion]

I guess some of that was my fault for making a stupid throwaway comment that was obviously meant to be a joke. Ro*********ut jumped on it, re-posted it to Rudy, and Rudy went to town with it across the street. Deep sigh. At least admins over there got to see what really was said. Just sorry your name got linked to it.