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Who will succeed Pope Francis? Betting odds favor another historic pick
LV REVIEW JOURNAL SUBSCRIPTIONPope Francis, who died Monday at age 88, was the first non-European pope in more than 1,000 years and the first Latin American pope.
Based on the betting odds, there’s a good chance the next pope also will make history.
Filipino cardinal Luis Antonio Tagle is the +250 co-favorite at BetOnline with Italian cardinal Pietro Parolin to be elected the next pope. Tagle, aka the “Asian Francis,” would be the first Asian pope.
Ghanaian cardinal Peter Turkson is the 5-1 third choice to be the next pope. He would be the first African pope in more than 1,500 years.
“With the Catholic Church membership growing rapidly in Asia and Africa, there’s speculation that it may want to lean into that growth and elect either Cardinal Tagle or Cardinal Turkson, which is why they are two of the favorites on our board,” BetOnline political oddsmaker Paul Krishnamurty said. “Either winning the election would be historic given that the pope hasn’t been of Asian or African descent for more than 1,000 years, and surprise political moves seem to be what sells these days.
“Cardinal Parolin is more of an obvious choice given his current position in the Vatican. He’s moderate compared to Pope Francis, and some believe the Catholic Church wants to shift back toward the middle in their global views.”
Parolin, who was Pope Francis’ principal adviser as the Vatican’s secretary of state since 2014, is the +225 favorite at London-based William Hill sportsbook to be the next pope. He would be the first Italian pope in 47 years. Tagle is the 3-1 second choice and Turkson the 6-1 third pick.
BetOnline, an offshore book that isn’t regulated in the U.S., has been offering next pope odds since 2022.
“But betting interest really started to heat up during the past two months when Pope Francis’ health began to decline,” Krishnamurty said. “We’ve taken a few hundred bets on the market since Monday.”
The closed-door conclave that is convened to elect a new pope historically begins 15 to 20 days after the previous pontiff’s death, or sometime between May 6 and 11. The College of Cardinals will meet in the Sistine Chapel to debate and then vote for their preferred candidate until a new pope is chosen. A two-third majority of 135 cardinal electors — only cardinals under the age of 80 are eligible to vote — are needed to elect a new pope.
Hungarian cardinal Peter Erdo is the +750 fourth favorite at BetOnline. Guinean cardinal Robert Sarah is tied at 8-1 with Italian cardinals Matteo Zuppi and Pierbattista Pizzaballa. Congolese cardinal Fridolin Ambongo Besungu is 12-1.
French cardinal Jean-Marc Aveline is 14-1 and the biggest liability at BetOnline. American cardinal Robert Prevost is 16-1.
Turkson was the betting favorite to be the next pope in 2013 before Pope Francis was a surprise choice. There is an old Italian saying about the unpredictability of the conclave that translates to “He who enters a conclave as a pope, leaves it as a cardinal.”
BetOnline also has a prop on the number of election rounds it will take to elect the next pope. Over 4½ is a -250 favorite, while under pays +170.
Leo is the 3-1 favorite to be the papal name of the next pope, followed by Gregory at +450 and Francis at 5-1. John Paul is +750, John and Stephen are each 8-1, and Pius is 10-1.
Betting on the next pope isn’t permitted at U.S. sportsbooks.
