eddiewilson
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Kamala Harris vs Donald Trump: latest odds for sweep of all 7 swing states
Who is the favorite in the key battleground states?
www.newsweek.com
But according to aggregates by Bookmakers Review, betting odds have accurately predicted 77 percent of the expected candidates winning over the last 35 years. Oddsmakers predicted Obama's win in 2012 and George W. Bush's in 2000, although in 2016 both pollsters and betting markets failed to anticipate Trump's victory.
"Betting markets have evolved into reasonably accurate predictors of elections—even more than some polls—but they're far from foolproof," Thomas Gift, a political scientist who runs the Centre on U.S. Politics at University College London told Newsweek.
"Often, we see wild, and unreasonable swings in these markets based on small events that appear to reflect a shift in momentum, but likely are just noise. Even though these markets have swung decidedly toward Trump of late, it's important to keep in mind that they still point to a race that's essentially a toss-up."
It should also be noted that with three weeks still to go until Election Day, there is still plenty of time for the political landscape to change.
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Kamala Harris' Chances of Winning North Carolina as She Campaigns in State
According to RealClearPolitics, bookmakers currently give the Republican nominee a 54.7 percent chance of winning, and Harris a 44.4 percent chance.
Compared to standard election polls, which usually take place over multiple days, gambling odds are highly reactive to news events and thus update more quickly.
It is notable that betting on politics is illegal in the U.S.
Speaking to Newsweek, Professor Emeritus Iwan Morgan at University College London said he thought it unlikely either candidate would sweep all seven swing states in 2024.
"I think one could say Trump did an almost perfect swing- state sweep in 2016—winning every state currently designated as swing except Nevada," Morgan said.
"Note too, Ohio and Florida were considered swing states back then—Obama won both in 2008 and 2012, but Trump carried both in 2016 and 2020, making them safely Republican.
"I don't think Trump or Harris can repeat that success unless the polls are terribly wrong. I expect Harris to win Nevada, Wisconsin and Michigan, Trump to win Arizona, Georgia and North Carolina. Who wins Pennsylvania is a toss-up right now, but I don't see Harris or Trump winning without carrying it."
According to FiveThirtyEight's aggregation of polls, the race in the seven swing states is incredibly close. As of early Tuesday, Harris and Trump were separated by less than two points in each.
Harris led in Michigan, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, and Nevada, while Trump was ahead in Arizona, Georgia, and North Carolina.
Do you have a story we should be covering? Do you have any questions about the 2024 presidential election? Contact LiveNews@newsweek.com
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Joe EdwardsJoe Edwards is a Live News Reporter based in Newsweek's London Bureau. He covers U.S. and global news and has ... Read more
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4h ago
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Eating out: +21%
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Pet food: +22.7%
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Gasoline: +100%
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newsweek.com
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