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College Football Picks for Week 11: Can Nittany Lions Claw Way to a Cover?
We are now on a 16-3 All-Sports run after another winner on Wednesday, including a 7-2 College Football run after going 2-1 in Week 10. We are now back with three more NCAAF plays for Week 11, all in the afternoon. The action starts early with two plays at 12:00 Noon ET, including #2 Indiana visiting Penn State in Happy Valley.
Indiana Hoosiers vs. Penn State Nittany Lions
Saturday, November 8th – 12:00 Noon ET
One of our few write-up losses came when fading Indiana last week, when a 20-10 lead over Maryland in the third quarter as 22-point favorites become 41-10 in a blink of an eye. But because we like pain, we are fading the Hoosiers Train again, as we still consider Penn State an overlay by getting more than two touchdowns at home.
This Could be Penn State Super Bowl
The Nittany Lions lost for the fifth straight time last week following a 3-0 start, falling at Ohio State 38-14. But to their credit, they were covering the spread until the Buckeyes scored the final touchdown. This came on the heels of an inspired effort at a difficult venue in the coaching debut of Terry Smith, a tough 17-16 loss at Iowa.
Also, new quarterback Ethan Grunkemeyer was better in his second start completing 19-of-28 passes, and Penn State has a good running game averaging 155.2 rushing yards per contest. The key to this cover could very well be Kaytron Allen, who has rushed for 688 yards and 10 touchdowns this season while averaging a nice 5.8 yards per carry. An effective running attack is crucial against an elite opponent, and something Maryland did not possess last week.
At the very least, Allen’s success would help run the clock, which is always a plus for a huge underdog, plus we think Grunkemeyer will continue to improve in his first start at home.
And we have yet to mention that even after upgrading Indiana and downgrading Penn State in recent weeks, our model still has this game at Indiana -11.7 on the road, giving us fine line value catching more than two touchdowns. And it does not hurt that this is essentially the Lions’ Super Bowl with nothing to play for the rest of the season.
Some Turnover Regression Inevitable
Obviously, it is difficult to find anything negative to say about Indiana right now. After all, their #2 ranking is deserved while being 9-0 with an average winning margin of +19.7 points per game. However, they were in a close game against a good defense until the middle of the third quarter last week before scoring 21 points in two minutes with the help of two turnovers.
In fact, Maryland committed five turnovers in that game, helping contribute to the Hoosiers owning the largest turnover margin in the country right now. That has helped pad Indiana’s numbers, and while they would probably still be great, the stats would at least normalize a bit with turnover regression. Now, IU is facing another good defense in hostile territory with Penn State ranked 35th in total defense, and unlike the Terps, the Nittany Lions have a solid run game.
This play may come down to the numbers, with this line varying so much from the model number of 11.7, but we see enough variables in play here pointing to Penn State giving a sell-out effort. Take the points getting more than two touchdowns with the Nittany Lions at home.
THE PICK
Penn State +15 -106 at Bookmaker
Southern Miss Golden Eagles vs Arkansas State Red Wolves
Saturday, November 8th – 12:00 Noon ET
We foresee a lower scoring game than this posted total in the mid-50s implies on Saturday afternoon in Jonesboro. Thus, we are betting on the Under when Southern Miss visits Arkansas State.
Passing Team Facing Good Pass Defense
Arkansas State has won four straight games to improve to 5-4 for the season, and they have done most of that behind the arm of quarterback Jaylen Raynor. He has passed for 2,123 yards for the season, but we do not see him having the success he has had during the winning streak here facing a good Southern Miss pass defense.
That Golden Hurricane unit ranks 58th in raw passing defense permitting 212.6 yards per game through the air, but they grade out much better metrically ranking 18th in Pressure and 20th in Coverage per PFF. Southern Miss also ranks in the Top 10 in Passing Success Rate allowed.
That means that Arkansas State will probably need an effective running game to open things up for Raynor through the air, and we simply do not see that happening. The Wolves are 99th nationally in rushing at 132.0 yards per game, and the news is not any better peripherally with ASU sitting outside the Top 100 in both rushing EPA and Rushing Success Rate.
And remember that as hot as the Red Wolves are, they are still just 97th in scoring with 23.6 points per game and may not even reach that modest figure without their usual passing success.
Golden Eagles May Run More
Now, Southern Miss is 6-2 and sits atop the Sun Belt Conference. They also have a rather pass-heavy offense, although not to the same extreme as Arkansas State. At least the Golden Hurricane are capable of running the ball, averaging a competent 151.5 yards per game on the ground. That becomes important against this Arkansas State defense.
You see, the Red Wolves have a good pass rush themselves with 19 sacks in eight games, but that have been practically defenseless against the run, ranking 109th in rushing defense permitting 177.9 yards per game. Thus, we expect more balanced play calling from Southern Miss here, and maybe even a more run-heavy offense if playing with a lead. That may be the case with the Sun Belt leaders being road favorites in this spot.
In summary, these are two pass-oriented teams that we do not expect to have their usual passing success in this game. With this in mind, we are going Under this potentially inflated total.
THE PICK
Under 55 -104 at Heritage
Tulsa Golden Hurricane vs Florida Atlantic Owls
Saturday, November 8th – 3:00pm ET
We see a potential overlay in Boca Roton on Saturday. We are taking the points with Tulsa and what we see as the better defense getting more than a field goal when they visit Florida Atlantic.
Tough Matchup for Florida Atlantic Offense
FAU comes in with a losing 3-5 record after allowing a total of 90 points in their last two games while losing to Navy and USF. Sure, the Owls have been good offensively thanks to ranking fifth in the country in passing offense with 325.4 passing yards per game. But while quarterback Caden Veltkamp has thrown for 2,324 yards, he is averaging just 6.0 yards per attempt and has thrown an alarming 11 interceptions vs. 17 touchdown passes.
Even more important regarding this game is the offense has been extremely one-dimensional while ranking 128th in rushing with 102.0 yards per game. That is a major concern against a Tulsa defense ranked 26th in Pressure and 31st in Coverage per PFF. And remember that Veltkamp’s high interception count has mostly come against worse passing defenses than this.
Now, we get that Tulsa can be run upon while ranking 121st in rush defense, but we do not see FAU being able to do that with their lackluster backfield that averages a collective 3.3 yards per carry and is lacking in the Explosive Runs department.
Tulsa with Bye Week to Prepare for Poor Defense
Tulsa comes off a tough 38-37 overtime loss to Temple two weeks ago, their fourth straight loss to fall to 2-6. However, quarterback Baylor Hayes had his best game of the season passing for 298 yards and three touchdown passes without an interception, and the Hurricane then had a bye week to prepare for a vulnerable defense.
We think the two weeks of preparation will lead to another good offensive effort from Tulsa here facing an FAU defense ranked 102nd in total defense surrendering 402 yards per contest, as well as a pathetic 130th in points allowed at 36.2 per game. More importantly, the Owls also sit outside the Top 100 in Quality Drives allowed and Finishing Drives allowed, so we look for Hayes to build on that last performance and for Tulsa to convert on their trips to the red zone.
So, with the Tulsa pass defense being the best unit for either team while also having a bye week to prepare for a weak defense and a one-dimensional passing offense, we are betting on the Golden Hurricane as road dogs.
THE PICK
Tulsa +3.5 -108 at Heritage
Remember that we will almost certainly have more plays than there, so make sure to keep checking the NCAAF Picks thread for additions.
We are now on a 16-3 All-Sports run after another winner on Wednesday, including a 7-2 College Football run after going 2-1 in Week 10. We are now back with three more NCAAF plays for Week 11, all in the afternoon. The action starts early with two plays at 12:00 Noon ET, including #2 Indiana visiting Penn State in Happy Valley.
Indiana Hoosiers vs. Penn State Nittany Lions
Saturday, November 8th – 12:00 Noon ET
One of our few write-up losses came when fading Indiana last week, when a 20-10 lead over Maryland in the third quarter as 22-point favorites become 41-10 in a blink of an eye. But because we like pain, we are fading the Hoosiers Train again, as we still consider Penn State an overlay by getting more than two touchdowns at home.
This Could be Penn State Super Bowl
The Nittany Lions lost for the fifth straight time last week following a 3-0 start, falling at Ohio State 38-14. But to their credit, they were covering the spread until the Buckeyes scored the final touchdown. This came on the heels of an inspired effort at a difficult venue in the coaching debut of Terry Smith, a tough 17-16 loss at Iowa.
Also, new quarterback Ethan Grunkemeyer was better in his second start completing 19-of-28 passes, and Penn State has a good running game averaging 155.2 rushing yards per contest. The key to this cover could very well be Kaytron Allen, who has rushed for 688 yards and 10 touchdowns this season while averaging a nice 5.8 yards per carry. An effective running attack is crucial against an elite opponent, and something Maryland did not possess last week.
At the very least, Allen’s success would help run the clock, which is always a plus for a huge underdog, plus we think Grunkemeyer will continue to improve in his first start at home.
And we have yet to mention that even after upgrading Indiana and downgrading Penn State in recent weeks, our model still has this game at Indiana -11.7 on the road, giving us fine line value catching more than two touchdowns. And it does not hurt that this is essentially the Lions’ Super Bowl with nothing to play for the rest of the season.
Some Turnover Regression Inevitable
Obviously, it is difficult to find anything negative to say about Indiana right now. After all, their #2 ranking is deserved while being 9-0 with an average winning margin of +19.7 points per game. However, they were in a close game against a good defense until the middle of the third quarter last week before scoring 21 points in two minutes with the help of two turnovers.
In fact, Maryland committed five turnovers in that game, helping contribute to the Hoosiers owning the largest turnover margin in the country right now. That has helped pad Indiana’s numbers, and while they would probably still be great, the stats would at least normalize a bit with turnover regression. Now, IU is facing another good defense in hostile territory with Penn State ranked 35th in total defense, and unlike the Terps, the Nittany Lions have a solid run game.
This play may come down to the numbers, with this line varying so much from the model number of 11.7, but we see enough variables in play here pointing to Penn State giving a sell-out effort. Take the points getting more than two touchdowns with the Nittany Lions at home.
THE PICK
Penn State +15 -106 at Bookmaker
Southern Miss Golden Eagles vs Arkansas State Red Wolves
Saturday, November 8th – 12:00 Noon ET
We foresee a lower scoring game than this posted total in the mid-50s implies on Saturday afternoon in Jonesboro. Thus, we are betting on the Under when Southern Miss visits Arkansas State.
Passing Team Facing Good Pass Defense
Arkansas State has won four straight games to improve to 5-4 for the season, and they have done most of that behind the arm of quarterback Jaylen Raynor. He has passed for 2,123 yards for the season, but we do not see him having the success he has had during the winning streak here facing a good Southern Miss pass defense.
That Golden Hurricane unit ranks 58th in raw passing defense permitting 212.6 yards per game through the air, but they grade out much better metrically ranking 18th in Pressure and 20th in Coverage per PFF. Southern Miss also ranks in the Top 10 in Passing Success Rate allowed.
That means that Arkansas State will probably need an effective running game to open things up for Raynor through the air, and we simply do not see that happening. The Wolves are 99th nationally in rushing at 132.0 yards per game, and the news is not any better peripherally with ASU sitting outside the Top 100 in both rushing EPA and Rushing Success Rate.
And remember that as hot as the Red Wolves are, they are still just 97th in scoring with 23.6 points per game and may not even reach that modest figure without their usual passing success.
Golden Eagles May Run More
Now, Southern Miss is 6-2 and sits atop the Sun Belt Conference. They also have a rather pass-heavy offense, although not to the same extreme as Arkansas State. At least the Golden Hurricane are capable of running the ball, averaging a competent 151.5 yards per game on the ground. That becomes important against this Arkansas State defense.
You see, the Red Wolves have a good pass rush themselves with 19 sacks in eight games, but that have been practically defenseless against the run, ranking 109th in rushing defense permitting 177.9 yards per game. Thus, we expect more balanced play calling from Southern Miss here, and maybe even a more run-heavy offense if playing with a lead. That may be the case with the Sun Belt leaders being road favorites in this spot.
In summary, these are two pass-oriented teams that we do not expect to have their usual passing success in this game. With this in mind, we are going Under this potentially inflated total.
THE PICK
Under 55 -104 at Heritage
Tulsa Golden Hurricane vs Florida Atlantic Owls
Saturday, November 8th – 3:00pm ET
We see a potential overlay in Boca Roton on Saturday. We are taking the points with Tulsa and what we see as the better defense getting more than a field goal when they visit Florida Atlantic.
Tough Matchup for Florida Atlantic Offense
FAU comes in with a losing 3-5 record after allowing a total of 90 points in their last two games while losing to Navy and USF. Sure, the Owls have been good offensively thanks to ranking fifth in the country in passing offense with 325.4 passing yards per game. But while quarterback Caden Veltkamp has thrown for 2,324 yards, he is averaging just 6.0 yards per attempt and has thrown an alarming 11 interceptions vs. 17 touchdown passes.
Even more important regarding this game is the offense has been extremely one-dimensional while ranking 128th in rushing with 102.0 yards per game. That is a major concern against a Tulsa defense ranked 26th in Pressure and 31st in Coverage per PFF. And remember that Veltkamp’s high interception count has mostly come against worse passing defenses than this.
Now, we get that Tulsa can be run upon while ranking 121st in rush defense, but we do not see FAU being able to do that with their lackluster backfield that averages a collective 3.3 yards per carry and is lacking in the Explosive Runs department.
Tulsa with Bye Week to Prepare for Poor Defense
Tulsa comes off a tough 38-37 overtime loss to Temple two weeks ago, their fourth straight loss to fall to 2-6. However, quarterback Baylor Hayes had his best game of the season passing for 298 yards and three touchdown passes without an interception, and the Hurricane then had a bye week to prepare for a vulnerable defense.
We think the two weeks of preparation will lead to another good offensive effort from Tulsa here facing an FAU defense ranked 102nd in total defense surrendering 402 yards per contest, as well as a pathetic 130th in points allowed at 36.2 per game. More importantly, the Owls also sit outside the Top 100 in Quality Drives allowed and Finishing Drives allowed, so we look for Hayes to build on that last performance and for Tulsa to convert on their trips to the red zone.
So, with the Tulsa pass defense being the best unit for either team while also having a bye week to prepare for a weak defense and a one-dimensional passing offense, we are betting on the Golden Hurricane as road dogs.
THE PICK
Tulsa +3.5 -108 at Heritage
Remember that we will almost certainly have more plays than there, so make sure to keep checking the NCAAF Picks thread for additions.
