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College Football Pick for Saturday: Gamecocks to Tame Tigers at Home in Columbia
We are now 24-13 across All Sports with our write-ups including 12-7 in College Football with one play pending on Friday. We have three selections for Saturday this Week 14, with the action starting early with Clemson vs. South Carolina at 12 Noon ET.
Clemson Tigers vs. South Carolina Gamecocks
Saturday, November 29th – 12:00 Noon ET
South Carolina has been toughened by playing one of the toughest schedules in the country. We look for the Gamecocks to use that to their advantage here with a safe win over disappointing Clemson at home in Columbia, SC.
Cocks Finally Caught a Breather Last Week
South Carolina is a disappointing 4-7 and will not go bowling this season, but at least they have a very good excuse. In fact, the Gamecocks have faced the sixth toughest schedule in the country per PFF, with last week’s 51-7 demolition of Coastal Carolina out of the FCS marking the first time they have faced a team not ranked in the Top 15 at the time since September!
Now, they get a chance to knock off an unranked Clemson team in a rivalry game that essentially becomes South Carolina’s bowl game, and we look for them to seize this opportunity at a cheap line. Granted, the offense has been sporadic all year, but that brutal schedule has had a lot to do with that.
Dual threat quarterback LaNorris Sellers did pass for 246 yards while averaging a good 8.0 yards per attempt while nearly engineering an upset in a tight 31-30 loss at Texas A&M the last time South Carolina faced an FBS opponent. Now, he can build on that against a Clemson team ranked 107th in passing defense. And that is not to mention his running ability that has seen him rush for 268 yards and five touchdowns.
But the biggest reason the Gamecocks have managed to go 6-5 ATS against a killer slate has been the defense allowing a respectable 22.1 points per game (37th nationally), and that unit will appreciate finally facing a lesser FBS foe.
Disappointing Year for Clemson
The Tigers had their usual high hopes entering this season, but they have been one of the biggest disappointments in the land at just 6-5. That mark shockingly includes four home losses, which is unheard of for usually one of the better home teams in the country. At least the Tigers are already bowl-eligible with their six wins, although we are not sure if they care much about that.
Clemson has become a one-dimensional passing team this season, ranking 19th nationally in passing yards but 94th in rushing yards. However, that passing strength takes a hit this week with stud wide receiver Bryant Wesco, their starting tight end and two offensive linemen all out with season-ending injuries. And we have already mentioned the difficulties the defense has had defending the pass.
We do not see Clemson generating a ton of offense with that depleted unit against the Cocks’ good defense, while we think LaNorris is in line for one of his better passing games against the Clemson secondary. Factor in the downgrade in opponent after a brutal schedule and bet on South Carolina as short home chalk.
THE PICK
South Carolina -2.5 -112 at Heritage
LSU Tigers vs. Oklahoma Sooners
Saturday, November 29th – 3:30pm ET
In a game that looks very different now than it was envisioned before the year or even early in this season, we look for the Oklahoma defense to totally shut down a sputtering LSU offense. We are betting on the Sooners as relatively sizable favorites while expecting a double-digit win.
Could Lock Up Playoff Berth?
Oklahoma comes in at 9-2, including a road win at Alabama two weeks ago, and they are currently eighth on the College Football Playoff Rankings. That makes this a huge game for the Sooners as a win would virtually clinch a Playoff spot, whereas a third loss could potentially knock them out entirely given their unlucky loss to three-loss Texas.
The offense has managed 28.3 points per game, but that has been more than enough considering how great the defense has been. The Sooners are 14th in the country in total defense allowing just 278.4 yards per game, as well as sixth in rushing defense, thanks to ranking second in yards per rush allowed at a scant 2.5! Granted, they are 58th in raw passing defense, but they are better metrically, grading out 12th in Pressure and 31st in Coverage.
Now, they get to face a slumping offense with a backup quarterback.
How Will LSU Score?
The Tigers started the year 4-0 but supposed “good” wins over Clemson and Florida have not aged well and LSU has gone 3-4 since that start, resulting in the firing of coach Brian Kelly in mid-season. Moreover, they have failed to score more than 25 points in any game since the 4-0 start, including receiving a scare in a 13-10 win in their cupcake game hosting Western Kentucky last week.
Moreover, the Tigers lost starting quarterback Garrett Nussmeier in the Alabama game two weeks ago, and they have squeaked by in two games since then vs. weak opponents, beating an Arkansas team that is winless in the SEC by just a 23-22 count before last week’s escape. LSU is 106th in total offense over the whole season, and we simply do not see a path to any success here against an elite Oklahoma defense.
We think this is more of a mismatch than most people thought it would be earlier in the season, with Oklahoma’s need to win to basically ensure a Playoff berth adding to the equation. Give the points with the Sooners in a potential blowout.
NOTE: We bet on and posted Oklahoma -9.5 -118 in our Picks thread in BookmakersReview forum when that line was available Wednesday. For write-up purposes only, we will track at the line below.
THE PICK
Oklahoma -10 -118 at Heritage
Missouri Tigers vs Arkansas Razorbacks
Saturday, November 29th – 3:30pm ET
In a game between two of the most potent rushing offenses in the country, we think the biggest difference-maker here will be the superior Missouri defense. We are laying the short spread on the road with the Tigers when they visit a 2-9 Arkansas team.
Tigers Can Run All Day on Hogs
Missouri is 7-4, but the dissection of that mark is quite interesting. You see, all four losses came against ranked teams, but then again, none of the seven wins came against any team that is currently bowl eligible. The good news there though is that they are closing their regular season here against another team that will certainly not be bowling.
The Tigers rank 24th in the land in total offense, fueled by a great rushing attack ranked eighth at 241.7 yards per game on the ground on a potent 5.6 yards per carry. Those numbers are not fluky either as they are backed up by their peripherals, ranking 10th overall in rushing per PFF. They should be able to run all day against an Arkansas team ranked 117th in total defense and, more critically, 108th in rushing defense at an unfathomable 181.2 yards per contest!
And should Missouri choose to mix things up at times, they are not helpless through the air at 209.2 passing yards per game and the struggles of the Arkansas defense extend to the secondary, where the Hogs rate 125th in Coverage.
Razorbacks Winless Since 2-0 Start
The Arkansas rushing attack has actually been even better than Missouri’s metrically, which is surprising for a team that has lost nine straight games since beginning the season at 2-0, including an 0-7 SEC record. The Razorbacks rank lower in raw rushing offense in 24th, but they are an incredible second overall in rushing per PFF behind only Oregon.
However, the defense has been so wretched that the offense has been unable to keep up without an adequate passing attack to compliment the elite running game, especially when playing from behind so often. And besides, Missouri should offer nice resistance here with their 18th ranked rushing defense that is allowing only 107.5 yards per game on a low 3.4 yards per carry.
All things considered, this looks like a very cheap line considering Mizzou can do whatever it pleases offensively and has the run defense to at least slow down the fantastic Arkansas running backs. Bet on Missouri as a small road favorite as we look for a winless SEC finish for the Hogs.
THE PICK
Missouri -2.5 -118 at Heritage
Remember that we already have more plays than this and will almost certainly be adding more, so make sure to keep checking the NCAAF Picks thread for additions.
We are now 24-13 across All Sports with our write-ups including 12-7 in College Football with one play pending on Friday. We have three selections for Saturday this Week 14, with the action starting early with Clemson vs. South Carolina at 12 Noon ET.
Clemson Tigers vs. South Carolina Gamecocks
Saturday, November 29th – 12:00 Noon ET
South Carolina has been toughened by playing one of the toughest schedules in the country. We look for the Gamecocks to use that to their advantage here with a safe win over disappointing Clemson at home in Columbia, SC.
Cocks Finally Caught a Breather Last Week
South Carolina is a disappointing 4-7 and will not go bowling this season, but at least they have a very good excuse. In fact, the Gamecocks have faced the sixth toughest schedule in the country per PFF, with last week’s 51-7 demolition of Coastal Carolina out of the FCS marking the first time they have faced a team not ranked in the Top 15 at the time since September!
Now, they get a chance to knock off an unranked Clemson team in a rivalry game that essentially becomes South Carolina’s bowl game, and we look for them to seize this opportunity at a cheap line. Granted, the offense has been sporadic all year, but that brutal schedule has had a lot to do with that.
Dual threat quarterback LaNorris Sellers did pass for 246 yards while averaging a good 8.0 yards per attempt while nearly engineering an upset in a tight 31-30 loss at Texas A&M the last time South Carolina faced an FBS opponent. Now, he can build on that against a Clemson team ranked 107th in passing defense. And that is not to mention his running ability that has seen him rush for 268 yards and five touchdowns.
But the biggest reason the Gamecocks have managed to go 6-5 ATS against a killer slate has been the defense allowing a respectable 22.1 points per game (37th nationally), and that unit will appreciate finally facing a lesser FBS foe.
Disappointing Year for Clemson
The Tigers had their usual high hopes entering this season, but they have been one of the biggest disappointments in the land at just 6-5. That mark shockingly includes four home losses, which is unheard of for usually one of the better home teams in the country. At least the Tigers are already bowl-eligible with their six wins, although we are not sure if they care much about that.
Clemson has become a one-dimensional passing team this season, ranking 19th nationally in passing yards but 94th in rushing yards. However, that passing strength takes a hit this week with stud wide receiver Bryant Wesco, their starting tight end and two offensive linemen all out with season-ending injuries. And we have already mentioned the difficulties the defense has had defending the pass.
We do not see Clemson generating a ton of offense with that depleted unit against the Cocks’ good defense, while we think LaNorris is in line for one of his better passing games against the Clemson secondary. Factor in the downgrade in opponent after a brutal schedule and bet on South Carolina as short home chalk.
THE PICK
South Carolina -2.5 -112 at Heritage
LSU Tigers vs. Oklahoma Sooners
Saturday, November 29th – 3:30pm ET
In a game that looks very different now than it was envisioned before the year or even early in this season, we look for the Oklahoma defense to totally shut down a sputtering LSU offense. We are betting on the Sooners as relatively sizable favorites while expecting a double-digit win.
Could Lock Up Playoff Berth?
Oklahoma comes in at 9-2, including a road win at Alabama two weeks ago, and they are currently eighth on the College Football Playoff Rankings. That makes this a huge game for the Sooners as a win would virtually clinch a Playoff spot, whereas a third loss could potentially knock them out entirely given their unlucky loss to three-loss Texas.
The offense has managed 28.3 points per game, but that has been more than enough considering how great the defense has been. The Sooners are 14th in the country in total defense allowing just 278.4 yards per game, as well as sixth in rushing defense, thanks to ranking second in yards per rush allowed at a scant 2.5! Granted, they are 58th in raw passing defense, but they are better metrically, grading out 12th in Pressure and 31st in Coverage.
Now, they get to face a slumping offense with a backup quarterback.
How Will LSU Score?
The Tigers started the year 4-0 but supposed “good” wins over Clemson and Florida have not aged well and LSU has gone 3-4 since that start, resulting in the firing of coach Brian Kelly in mid-season. Moreover, they have failed to score more than 25 points in any game since the 4-0 start, including receiving a scare in a 13-10 win in their cupcake game hosting Western Kentucky last week.
Moreover, the Tigers lost starting quarterback Garrett Nussmeier in the Alabama game two weeks ago, and they have squeaked by in two games since then vs. weak opponents, beating an Arkansas team that is winless in the SEC by just a 23-22 count before last week’s escape. LSU is 106th in total offense over the whole season, and we simply do not see a path to any success here against an elite Oklahoma defense.
We think this is more of a mismatch than most people thought it would be earlier in the season, with Oklahoma’s need to win to basically ensure a Playoff berth adding to the equation. Give the points with the Sooners in a potential blowout.
NOTE: We bet on and posted Oklahoma -9.5 -118 in our Picks thread in BookmakersReview forum when that line was available Wednesday. For write-up purposes only, we will track at the line below.
THE PICK
Oklahoma -10 -118 at Heritage
Missouri Tigers vs Arkansas Razorbacks
Saturday, November 29th – 3:30pm ET
In a game between two of the most potent rushing offenses in the country, we think the biggest difference-maker here will be the superior Missouri defense. We are laying the short spread on the road with the Tigers when they visit a 2-9 Arkansas team.
Tigers Can Run All Day on Hogs
Missouri is 7-4, but the dissection of that mark is quite interesting. You see, all four losses came against ranked teams, but then again, none of the seven wins came against any team that is currently bowl eligible. The good news there though is that they are closing their regular season here against another team that will certainly not be bowling.
The Tigers rank 24th in the land in total offense, fueled by a great rushing attack ranked eighth at 241.7 yards per game on the ground on a potent 5.6 yards per carry. Those numbers are not fluky either as they are backed up by their peripherals, ranking 10th overall in rushing per PFF. They should be able to run all day against an Arkansas team ranked 117th in total defense and, more critically, 108th in rushing defense at an unfathomable 181.2 yards per contest!
And should Missouri choose to mix things up at times, they are not helpless through the air at 209.2 passing yards per game and the struggles of the Arkansas defense extend to the secondary, where the Hogs rate 125th in Coverage.
Razorbacks Winless Since 2-0 Start
The Arkansas rushing attack has actually been even better than Missouri’s metrically, which is surprising for a team that has lost nine straight games since beginning the season at 2-0, including an 0-7 SEC record. The Razorbacks rank lower in raw rushing offense in 24th, but they are an incredible second overall in rushing per PFF behind only Oregon.
However, the defense has been so wretched that the offense has been unable to keep up without an adequate passing attack to compliment the elite running game, especially when playing from behind so often. And besides, Missouri should offer nice resistance here with their 18th ranked rushing defense that is allowing only 107.5 yards per game on a low 3.4 yards per carry.
All things considered, this looks like a very cheap line considering Mizzou can do whatever it pleases offensively and has the run defense to at least slow down the fantastic Arkansas running backs. Bet on Missouri as a small road favorite as we look for a winless SEC finish for the Hogs.
THE PICK
Missouri -2.5 -118 at Heritage
Remember that we already have more plays than this and will almost certainly be adding more, so make sure to keep checking the NCAAF Picks thread for additions.
South Carolina back to -2.5 after touching 3 in some spots 
