LT Profits
- Joined
- Feb 27, 2023
- Messages
- 10,803
College Football Picks for Week 9: Cyclones Forecasted to Blow Past Cougars
We nailed the 3-0 NCAAF sweep in Week 8 and are on an 8-1 All-Sports run with our write-ups. We are now back with three more selections for Week 9, highlighted by #11 BYU visiting Iowa State in the Big 12. The action starts early with Rutgers visiting Purdue at 12 Noon ET.
Rutgers Scarlet Knights vs. Purdue Boilermaker
Saturday, October 25th – 12:00 Noon ET
While Purdue has improved since last season, that is not really saying much, and the Boilermakers are most likely starting a backup quarterback. We are backing Rutgers as a small road favorite at West Lafayette in this spot.
Purdue Offense to Struggle Without Browne
Purdue opened the season with two straight wins, which was already more wins than the team that went 1-11 including 0-8 in Big Ten play last year. However, they have since lost five straight to fall to 2-5. Yes, they have been competitive in a few of those losses, but that was mostly due to the play of quarterback Ryan Browne, who has improved in his first season as a fulltime starter.
However, Browne sustained a shoulder injury last week and is likely to miss this game (at least). That means Malachi Singleton draws the start, and he is more of a running quarterback that lacks the arm strength that Browne possesses. Given that the running backs have not provided much all year with the Boilermakers ranked 96th in the country in rushing, it is no surprise that the offense did nothing after Browne’s injury last week while getting shut out 19-0 at Northwestern.
We expect those offensive struggles to continue this week, even against a Rutgers team ranked 123rd in total defense. One reason for this is coach Greg Schiano said he made changes in defensive personnel, although he did not specify what these changes were. More importantly though, Rutgers can fully commit to stopping the run here, basically daring Singleton to beat them through the air.
Rutgers Should Score Enough vs. Lesser Defense
Another factor in the poor defensive rankings for Rutgers is that they have yet to face a Power Four team with a losing record. After beginning the year 3-0 vs. a soft schedule, the Scarlet Knights have lost four straight games to Iowa, Minnesota, Washington and Oregon. It goes without saying that this is a much easier matchup on both sides of the football.
And we expect stark improvement from the Rutgers offense here closer to when they scored a total of 79 points in their first two wins against two MAC schools. The Knights do have some nice offensive metrics still on their side even after the recent stretch against much better defenses. They rank 12th in the country in Finishing Drives, which should come into play with more red-zone trips expected, and they are in the Top 20 in Offensive Havoc.
Havoc is a formula that combines tackles for loss, pass breakups, turnovers and sacks, so a high ranking in Offensive Havoc points to a lack of those factors.
In the end, we expect a big edge for Rutgers offensively here unless Purdue’s Singleton suddenly shows passing ability that he has yet to show at the college level. Bet on the Scarlet Knights giving less than a field goal.
THE PICK
Rutgers -2 -108 at Bookmaker
Temple Owls vs Tulsa Golden Hurricane
Saturday, October 25th – 3:30pm ET
Temple has been a pleasant surprise going 4-3 so far this year, but the Owls look like an overlay here on the road visiting a Tulsa team that is better than its 2-5 record. We are betting on the Golden Hurricane as home underdogs.
Owls Facing an Underrated Defense
Not much was expected from Temple this season, but here they are with a winning record that includes an upset over UTSA, and they nearly pulled another shocker losing by just a 32-31 score as double-digit dogs to Navy. However, they still rank just 75th nationally in total offense at 381.4 yards per game, and although Tulsa ranks 111th in total defense allowing 411.0 yards per contest, much of that has to do with facing the four of the best teams in the AAC already.
The Temple offense will seem much easier to defend for the Hurricane after losing to Navy, Tulane, Memphis and East Carolina in conference, all of whom have potent offenses. And even with that, the Tulsa pass defense ranks second in the AAC in Coverage and third in Pressure per PFF. Furthermore, the run defense has performed well on early downs, ranking eighth nationally in EPA Per Rush allowed and 15th in Rushing Success Rate allowed.
In a nutshell, we do not expect Temple to reach its average of 33.0 points per game unless the Owls bust some Explosive Runs on third down
Tulsa Expected to Finish Drives, Dominate Trenches
Tulsa ranks 79th in total offense, but again, that has been while facing a more difficult schedule that Temple has faced. We think the Golden Hurricane will be able to establish the run here against a Temple team ranked 108th in rushing defense and 128th in yards per rush allowed at a generous 5.2! That should allow quarterback Baylor Hayes to continue to build his rapport with speedy slot receiver Zion Steptoe.
Steptoe is a burner that has had just 13 receptions this season. However, 12 of those receptions have come in the last four games including a season high four catches last week. Continuing to feed a receiver like Steptoe who excels when he has space should payoff vs. a Temple defense that is nearly dead last in Finishing Drives allowed. The Temple defensive front can also be dominated while ranking near the bottom nationally in Line Yards.
For good measure, the Owls are also ranked 109th in tackling per PFF.
The bottom line here is that Temple has too many holes on defense to be favored by this much, while Tulsa is better than its raw rankings on both sides of the ball. We are taking the points with the Golden Hurricane at home in Tulsa.
THE PICK
Tulsa +5.5 -108 at Heritage
BYU Cougars vs Iowa State Cyclones
Saturday, October 25th – 3:30pm ET
This is a great situational spot for an Iowa State team that we were high on entering the season, hosting a potentially overrated BYU team traveling to Ames after two hard-fought wins out west. We are backing the Cyclones as small favorites returning home following two road losses and then a bye week.
Is BYU as Good as the Record?
BYU comes in at a perfect 7-0 while being the 11th ranked team in the country, but we are not totally sold on this team. The Cougars could have easily lost the last two weeks, which would have changed their narrative drastically.
First, they were down by 10 points at Arizona in the fourth quarter before scoring the tying touchdown in the final seconds of regulation thanks to a fumble recovery and a string of penalties. They went on to win in double overtime. Then, in the Holy War at Utah last week, BYU was outgained by 100 yards and was helped by a +2 turnover margin and 12 Utah penalties in a three-point win.
Just that emotional Holy War win alone would be cause for a letdown here, but the added travel to the Midwest certainly does not help either.
Bye Week Helps Getting Kicker Back
Iowa State is coming off a bye week, and besides the obvious extra preparation time for a BYU team that has had luck on its side, it also allows for the return of star kicker Kyle Konrardy. The Cyclones could have used the reliable Konrardy in their two one-score road losses prior to the bye, by scores of 38-30 at Cincinnati and 24-17 in the altitude of Colorado. That followed a 5-0 start where Iowa State resembled the team that we expected in the preseason.
The ISU offense has been fine while having nice balance, ranking 25th nationally in passing offense at 242.1 yards per game and 38th in rushing offense at 163.1 yards. There is some concern on defense however, especially with a secondary that lost two stud cornerbacks to injuries. This is another area where the bye week comes in handy, as we trust that the Cyclones’ staff pieced things together on the back end with the extra prep.
Besides, we are not high on BYU quarterback Bear Bachmeier, who had a lucky TD/INT ratio last year based on his metrics and is following a similar pattern this season. He has managed to post nine touchdown passes vs. five interceptions despite having more Turnover Worthy Plays (7) than Big Time Throws (5).
Bachmeier’s luck must run out at some point, while Iowa State has averaged 38.7 points while going 3-0 at home. Bet on the Cyclones at home giving around a field goal.
THE PICK
Iowa State -3 +103 at Bet105
We nailed the 3-0 NCAAF sweep in Week 8 and are on an 8-1 All-Sports run with our write-ups. We are now back with three more selections for Week 9, highlighted by #11 BYU visiting Iowa State in the Big 12. The action starts early with Rutgers visiting Purdue at 12 Noon ET.
Rutgers Scarlet Knights vs. Purdue Boilermaker
Saturday, October 25th – 12:00 Noon ET
While Purdue has improved since last season, that is not really saying much, and the Boilermakers are most likely starting a backup quarterback. We are backing Rutgers as a small road favorite at West Lafayette in this spot.
Purdue Offense to Struggle Without Browne
Purdue opened the season with two straight wins, which was already more wins than the team that went 1-11 including 0-8 in Big Ten play last year. However, they have since lost five straight to fall to 2-5. Yes, they have been competitive in a few of those losses, but that was mostly due to the play of quarterback Ryan Browne, who has improved in his first season as a fulltime starter.
However, Browne sustained a shoulder injury last week and is likely to miss this game (at least). That means Malachi Singleton draws the start, and he is more of a running quarterback that lacks the arm strength that Browne possesses. Given that the running backs have not provided much all year with the Boilermakers ranked 96th in the country in rushing, it is no surprise that the offense did nothing after Browne’s injury last week while getting shut out 19-0 at Northwestern.
We expect those offensive struggles to continue this week, even against a Rutgers team ranked 123rd in total defense. One reason for this is coach Greg Schiano said he made changes in defensive personnel, although he did not specify what these changes were. More importantly though, Rutgers can fully commit to stopping the run here, basically daring Singleton to beat them through the air.
Rutgers Should Score Enough vs. Lesser Defense
Another factor in the poor defensive rankings for Rutgers is that they have yet to face a Power Four team with a losing record. After beginning the year 3-0 vs. a soft schedule, the Scarlet Knights have lost four straight games to Iowa, Minnesota, Washington and Oregon. It goes without saying that this is a much easier matchup on both sides of the football.
And we expect stark improvement from the Rutgers offense here closer to when they scored a total of 79 points in their first two wins against two MAC schools. The Knights do have some nice offensive metrics still on their side even after the recent stretch against much better defenses. They rank 12th in the country in Finishing Drives, which should come into play with more red-zone trips expected, and they are in the Top 20 in Offensive Havoc.
Havoc is a formula that combines tackles for loss, pass breakups, turnovers and sacks, so a high ranking in Offensive Havoc points to a lack of those factors.
In the end, we expect a big edge for Rutgers offensively here unless Purdue’s Singleton suddenly shows passing ability that he has yet to show at the college level. Bet on the Scarlet Knights giving less than a field goal.
THE PICK
Rutgers -2 -108 at Bookmaker
Temple Owls vs Tulsa Golden Hurricane
Saturday, October 25th – 3:30pm ET
Temple has been a pleasant surprise going 4-3 so far this year, but the Owls look like an overlay here on the road visiting a Tulsa team that is better than its 2-5 record. We are betting on the Golden Hurricane as home underdogs.
Owls Facing an Underrated Defense
Not much was expected from Temple this season, but here they are with a winning record that includes an upset over UTSA, and they nearly pulled another shocker losing by just a 32-31 score as double-digit dogs to Navy. However, they still rank just 75th nationally in total offense at 381.4 yards per game, and although Tulsa ranks 111th in total defense allowing 411.0 yards per contest, much of that has to do with facing the four of the best teams in the AAC already.
The Temple offense will seem much easier to defend for the Hurricane after losing to Navy, Tulane, Memphis and East Carolina in conference, all of whom have potent offenses. And even with that, the Tulsa pass defense ranks second in the AAC in Coverage and third in Pressure per PFF. Furthermore, the run defense has performed well on early downs, ranking eighth nationally in EPA Per Rush allowed and 15th in Rushing Success Rate allowed.
In a nutshell, we do not expect Temple to reach its average of 33.0 points per game unless the Owls bust some Explosive Runs on third down
Tulsa Expected to Finish Drives, Dominate Trenches
Tulsa ranks 79th in total offense, but again, that has been while facing a more difficult schedule that Temple has faced. We think the Golden Hurricane will be able to establish the run here against a Temple team ranked 108th in rushing defense and 128th in yards per rush allowed at a generous 5.2! That should allow quarterback Baylor Hayes to continue to build his rapport with speedy slot receiver Zion Steptoe.
Steptoe is a burner that has had just 13 receptions this season. However, 12 of those receptions have come in the last four games including a season high four catches last week. Continuing to feed a receiver like Steptoe who excels when he has space should payoff vs. a Temple defense that is nearly dead last in Finishing Drives allowed. The Temple defensive front can also be dominated while ranking near the bottom nationally in Line Yards.
For good measure, the Owls are also ranked 109th in tackling per PFF.
The bottom line here is that Temple has too many holes on defense to be favored by this much, while Tulsa is better than its raw rankings on both sides of the ball. We are taking the points with the Golden Hurricane at home in Tulsa.
THE PICK
Tulsa +5.5 -108 at Heritage
BYU Cougars vs Iowa State Cyclones
Saturday, October 25th – 3:30pm ET
This is a great situational spot for an Iowa State team that we were high on entering the season, hosting a potentially overrated BYU team traveling to Ames after two hard-fought wins out west. We are backing the Cyclones as small favorites returning home following two road losses and then a bye week.
Is BYU as Good as the Record?
BYU comes in at a perfect 7-0 while being the 11th ranked team in the country, but we are not totally sold on this team. The Cougars could have easily lost the last two weeks, which would have changed their narrative drastically.
First, they were down by 10 points at Arizona in the fourth quarter before scoring the tying touchdown in the final seconds of regulation thanks to a fumble recovery and a string of penalties. They went on to win in double overtime. Then, in the Holy War at Utah last week, BYU was outgained by 100 yards and was helped by a +2 turnover margin and 12 Utah penalties in a three-point win.
Just that emotional Holy War win alone would be cause for a letdown here, but the added travel to the Midwest certainly does not help either.
Bye Week Helps Getting Kicker Back
Iowa State is coming off a bye week, and besides the obvious extra preparation time for a BYU team that has had luck on its side, it also allows for the return of star kicker Kyle Konrardy. The Cyclones could have used the reliable Konrardy in their two one-score road losses prior to the bye, by scores of 38-30 at Cincinnati and 24-17 in the altitude of Colorado. That followed a 5-0 start where Iowa State resembled the team that we expected in the preseason.
The ISU offense has been fine while having nice balance, ranking 25th nationally in passing offense at 242.1 yards per game and 38th in rushing offense at 163.1 yards. There is some concern on defense however, especially with a secondary that lost two stud cornerbacks to injuries. This is another area where the bye week comes in handy, as we trust that the Cyclones’ staff pieced things together on the back end with the extra prep.
Besides, we are not high on BYU quarterback Bear Bachmeier, who had a lucky TD/INT ratio last year based on his metrics and is following a similar pattern this season. He has managed to post nine touchdown passes vs. five interceptions despite having more Turnover Worthy Plays (7) than Big Time Throws (5).
Bachmeier’s luck must run out at some point, while Iowa State has averaged 38.7 points while going 3-0 at home. Bet on the Cyclones at home giving around a field goal.
THE PICK
Iowa State -3 +103 at Bet105
