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College Football Picks for Week 8: Ole Miss vs. Georgia Highlights 3 SEC Plays
After finishing 4-0 with our MLB write-ups this week, we now shift gears with our takes on the College Football card for Saturday. And by sheer coincidence, we landed on three plays from the SEC, which is abnormal for us as we study plays from the entire betting board. The action starts early with LSU visiting Vandy at 12 Noon ET.
LSU Tigers vs. Vanderbilt Commodores
Saturday, October 18th – 12:00 Noon ET
We are expecting fireworks in Nashville at High Noon on Saturday, so we are going Over this total when 10th ranked LSU visits 17th ranked Vanderbilt at FirstBank Stadium.
LSU Defense Not as Good Metrically as Rankings
On the surface, this matchup between the Vanderbilt offense and the LSU defense looks like a wash, with Vandy ranking 20th in the country in yards per game at 467.5 and the Tigers ranked 21st in yards allowed at 297.0. However, the metrics on PFF paint a less encouraging picture of the LSU defense, ranking then a noticeably worse 47th in run defense and a more dismal 74th in Pressure.
The Commodores had a dual threat quarterback in Diego Pavia, who has completed 71.4% of his passes for 1,409 yards with 14 touchdown passes vs. four interceptions while also rushing for 352 yards on 5.9 yards per carry. He had led the Dores to 49 points per game during their 5-0 start before falling 30-14 at Alabama in their last game two weeks ago, which is forgivable.
Now, Vanderbilt has had two weeks to prepare for this game following a bye week while facing a defense whose PFF metrics do not support their frontline rankings.
Nussmeier in Line for Best Game of Season?
LSU quarterback Garrett Nussmeier has yet to pass for 300 yards this season, although to be fair, he has been battling through an abdominal strain and an ankle injury. He did look the healthiest he has been last week however in a 20-10 win over South Carolina, but this time he was held back by coach Brian Kelley emphasizing the running game with the Tigers rushing for 166 yards.
We see LSU leaning more heavily on a healthier Nussmeier this week, and it is not as if he has not been effective anyway while completing 66.2% of his passes with nine touchdowns. He can take advantage of a Vanderbilt team ranked 68th in passing defense and even worse peripherally, ranking outside the Top 100 in both defensive Pass Success Rate and EPA allowed.
Also, those 166 rushing yards last week were a season high for LSU, potentially making them more balanced offensively the rest of the season. We still think attacking the Commodores through the air is the best course for the Tigers here though, but at least Vandy now needs to respect the run more, which could make Nussmeier’s task easier.
In the end, we see both offenses being able to take advantage of the weaknesses of each defense in this contest. This has us betting on the Over in a potential shootout.
THE PICK
Over 49 -108 at Heritage
Mississippi Rebels vs Georgia Bulldogs
Saturday, October 18th – 3:30pm ET
In what may be the best matchup of the day, fifth ranked Mississippi’s perfect 6-0 record is in peril here visiting ninth ranked Georgia in Athens. Our focus however is on the total, as we are betting on the Over in a game where each team’s strength offensively matches well with each team’s defensive weakness.
Rebels Average Over 500 Yards per Game
Mississippi enters this contest fifth in the land in total offense at 515.3 yards per game while averaging 37.8 points per game. Keep in mind that includes escaping with a 24-21 victory over outclassed Washington State last week while amassing “only” 439 total yards. However, that was a big letdown spot after beating LSU the previous week and with this huge matchup next, so we see a return to normalcy for the offense here with a more focused effort.
Ole Miss has not been bad at all running the football, ranked 27th in rushing offense at 204.2 rushing yards per game. But their offensive success starts with quarterback Trinidad Chambliss, who has passed for 1,286 yards despite not starting until Week 3, averaging a whopping 9.0 yards per attempt with seven touchdown passes vs. one interception. He has helped guide a passing attack ranked eighth nationally at 311.0 yards per contest.
Chambliss is also a dual threat that has added 272 rushing yards, but we feel his passing should be at the forefront here. That is because he faces a Georgia defense ranked a middling 59th against the pass statistically and much worse metrically, at a pathetic 123rd in Pressure Rating per PFF, 68th in Coverage and outside the Top 60 in Defensive Pass Efficiency.
Effective Running Expected from Georgia
We also see Georgia putting up points in this game, but in a total opposite manner than Ole Miss. That is because the Bulldogs have had a drastic drop in quarterback-play since last year with Gunner Stockton replacing the departed Carson Beck. However, Gunner only needs to be a game manager here while letting the running game do most of the work.
Georgia is averaging a good 185.5 rushing yards per game, but the Dawgs can easily top that here against a lax Ole Miss run defense ranked 96th, generously permitting 157.7 yards per game on the ground. Moreover, the Rebels ranks outside the Top 100 in both Havoc and Line Yards, with the latter meaning their defensive front can be dominated by Georgia’s offensive line.
And once the Bulldogs enter the red zone, they rank 10th nationally in Offensive Finishing Drives.
This is a game where Chambliss can potentially torch the Georgia secondary, but the Dawgs can answer by running up and down the field against weak Mississippi run defense. We are going Over in Athens.
THE PICK
Over 54.5 -110 at Bet105
Texas Longhorns vs Kentucky Wildcats
Saturday, October 18th – 7:00pm ET
This is a huge letdown spot for Texas after winning “The Game” over Oklahoma last week, and we still think that the Longhorns are a bit overrated. We look for Kentucky to take advantage of that and are backing the Wildcats catching double digits at home in this spot.
Texas Offense Still Questionable
Yes, the Longhorns essentially saved their season by winning the Red River Rivalry 23-6 over Oklahoma last week to improve to 4-2, but they showed us nothing to change our beliefs that they did not deserve their #1 preseason ranking and Arch Manning did not deserve to start the year as the Heisman Trophy favorite.
Texas benefitted from a +3 turnover advantage last week while also scoring on a 75-yard punt return. The offense barely generated over 300 total yards (302) and Manning did not take many chances while completing a deceptive 21-or-27 pass attempts, as he did so while averaging a scant 6.2 yards per attempt.
Moreover, Manning’s peripherals further support him being overhyped. The metrics show him ranked 91st in Adjusted Completion Rate among 134 QBs with at least 100 drop-backs, and he has more Turnover Worthy Plays (11) than Big Time Throws (10).
Bye Week Helps with Transition at Quarterback
Kentucky is coming off a bye week, and besides the obvious extra preparation for an offense that has not been all it was cranked up to be, it also came at a good time with a recent change at quarterback. The Wildcats head into this game with a losing record of 2-3, but one of those wins came in the first start by Cutter Boley three games ago 48-23 over Eastern Michigan after the benching of Zach Calzada.
Granted, Boley has not been all that special despite a decent 627 passing yards in three games, completing only 57.7% of his passes, but that is where the bye week may have helped him improve his timing with his receivers during practice. Remember also that Boley was effective in a relief role vs. a better Texas team last season, passing for 160 yards in the second half to help bring the Wildcats to within 24-14 before the 31-14 loss in Austin.
This also looks like a good buy-low spot for Kentucky with their two losses since the blowout win in Boley’s first start coming against Georgia and South Carolina on the road. In fact, the Wildcats have faced the third toughest schedule in the country to this point per PFF, with the other loss being a covering 30-23 defeat to undefeated Mississippi.
We simply do not think this Texas team is at the same elite status as last year’s squad, and we do not expect this offense to score enough points to cover this big spot against a competent team with two weeks to prepare. Take the big points with Kentucky.
THE PICK
Kentucky +13 -108 at Heritage
Remember that we will have more plays than these, so make sure to keep checking the NCAAF Picks thread for additions.
After finishing 4-0 with our MLB write-ups this week, we now shift gears with our takes on the College Football card for Saturday. And by sheer coincidence, we landed on three plays from the SEC, which is abnormal for us as we study plays from the entire betting board. The action starts early with LSU visiting Vandy at 12 Noon ET.
LSU Tigers vs. Vanderbilt Commodores
Saturday, October 18th – 12:00 Noon ET
We are expecting fireworks in Nashville at High Noon on Saturday, so we are going Over this total when 10th ranked LSU visits 17th ranked Vanderbilt at FirstBank Stadium.
LSU Defense Not as Good Metrically as Rankings
On the surface, this matchup between the Vanderbilt offense and the LSU defense looks like a wash, with Vandy ranking 20th in the country in yards per game at 467.5 and the Tigers ranked 21st in yards allowed at 297.0. However, the metrics on PFF paint a less encouraging picture of the LSU defense, ranking then a noticeably worse 47th in run defense and a more dismal 74th in Pressure.
The Commodores had a dual threat quarterback in Diego Pavia, who has completed 71.4% of his passes for 1,409 yards with 14 touchdown passes vs. four interceptions while also rushing for 352 yards on 5.9 yards per carry. He had led the Dores to 49 points per game during their 5-0 start before falling 30-14 at Alabama in their last game two weeks ago, which is forgivable.
Now, Vanderbilt has had two weeks to prepare for this game following a bye week while facing a defense whose PFF metrics do not support their frontline rankings.
Nussmeier in Line for Best Game of Season?
LSU quarterback Garrett Nussmeier has yet to pass for 300 yards this season, although to be fair, he has been battling through an abdominal strain and an ankle injury. He did look the healthiest he has been last week however in a 20-10 win over South Carolina, but this time he was held back by coach Brian Kelley emphasizing the running game with the Tigers rushing for 166 yards.
We see LSU leaning more heavily on a healthier Nussmeier this week, and it is not as if he has not been effective anyway while completing 66.2% of his passes with nine touchdowns. He can take advantage of a Vanderbilt team ranked 68th in passing defense and even worse peripherally, ranking outside the Top 100 in both defensive Pass Success Rate and EPA allowed.
Also, those 166 rushing yards last week were a season high for LSU, potentially making them more balanced offensively the rest of the season. We still think attacking the Commodores through the air is the best course for the Tigers here though, but at least Vandy now needs to respect the run more, which could make Nussmeier’s task easier.
In the end, we see both offenses being able to take advantage of the weaknesses of each defense in this contest. This has us betting on the Over in a potential shootout.
THE PICK
Over 49 -108 at Heritage
Mississippi Rebels vs Georgia Bulldogs
Saturday, October 18th – 3:30pm ET
In what may be the best matchup of the day, fifth ranked Mississippi’s perfect 6-0 record is in peril here visiting ninth ranked Georgia in Athens. Our focus however is on the total, as we are betting on the Over in a game where each team’s strength offensively matches well with each team’s defensive weakness.
Rebels Average Over 500 Yards per Game
Mississippi enters this contest fifth in the land in total offense at 515.3 yards per game while averaging 37.8 points per game. Keep in mind that includes escaping with a 24-21 victory over outclassed Washington State last week while amassing “only” 439 total yards. However, that was a big letdown spot after beating LSU the previous week and with this huge matchup next, so we see a return to normalcy for the offense here with a more focused effort.
Ole Miss has not been bad at all running the football, ranked 27th in rushing offense at 204.2 rushing yards per game. But their offensive success starts with quarterback Trinidad Chambliss, who has passed for 1,286 yards despite not starting until Week 3, averaging a whopping 9.0 yards per attempt with seven touchdown passes vs. one interception. He has helped guide a passing attack ranked eighth nationally at 311.0 yards per contest.
Chambliss is also a dual threat that has added 272 rushing yards, but we feel his passing should be at the forefront here. That is because he faces a Georgia defense ranked a middling 59th against the pass statistically and much worse metrically, at a pathetic 123rd in Pressure Rating per PFF, 68th in Coverage and outside the Top 60 in Defensive Pass Efficiency.
Effective Running Expected from Georgia
We also see Georgia putting up points in this game, but in a total opposite manner than Ole Miss. That is because the Bulldogs have had a drastic drop in quarterback-play since last year with Gunner Stockton replacing the departed Carson Beck. However, Gunner only needs to be a game manager here while letting the running game do most of the work.
Georgia is averaging a good 185.5 rushing yards per game, but the Dawgs can easily top that here against a lax Ole Miss run defense ranked 96th, generously permitting 157.7 yards per game on the ground. Moreover, the Rebels ranks outside the Top 100 in both Havoc and Line Yards, with the latter meaning their defensive front can be dominated by Georgia’s offensive line.
And once the Bulldogs enter the red zone, they rank 10th nationally in Offensive Finishing Drives.
This is a game where Chambliss can potentially torch the Georgia secondary, but the Dawgs can answer by running up and down the field against weak Mississippi run defense. We are going Over in Athens.
THE PICK
Over 54.5 -110 at Bet105
Texas Longhorns vs Kentucky Wildcats
Saturday, October 18th – 7:00pm ET
This is a huge letdown spot for Texas after winning “The Game” over Oklahoma last week, and we still think that the Longhorns are a bit overrated. We look for Kentucky to take advantage of that and are backing the Wildcats catching double digits at home in this spot.
Texas Offense Still Questionable
Yes, the Longhorns essentially saved their season by winning the Red River Rivalry 23-6 over Oklahoma last week to improve to 4-2, but they showed us nothing to change our beliefs that they did not deserve their #1 preseason ranking and Arch Manning did not deserve to start the year as the Heisman Trophy favorite.
Texas benefitted from a +3 turnover advantage last week while also scoring on a 75-yard punt return. The offense barely generated over 300 total yards (302) and Manning did not take many chances while completing a deceptive 21-or-27 pass attempts, as he did so while averaging a scant 6.2 yards per attempt.
Moreover, Manning’s peripherals further support him being overhyped. The metrics show him ranked 91st in Adjusted Completion Rate among 134 QBs with at least 100 drop-backs, and he has more Turnover Worthy Plays (11) than Big Time Throws (10).
Bye Week Helps with Transition at Quarterback
Kentucky is coming off a bye week, and besides the obvious extra preparation for an offense that has not been all it was cranked up to be, it also came at a good time with a recent change at quarterback. The Wildcats head into this game with a losing record of 2-3, but one of those wins came in the first start by Cutter Boley three games ago 48-23 over Eastern Michigan after the benching of Zach Calzada.
Granted, Boley has not been all that special despite a decent 627 passing yards in three games, completing only 57.7% of his passes, but that is where the bye week may have helped him improve his timing with his receivers during practice. Remember also that Boley was effective in a relief role vs. a better Texas team last season, passing for 160 yards in the second half to help bring the Wildcats to within 24-14 before the 31-14 loss in Austin.
This also looks like a good buy-low spot for Kentucky with their two losses since the blowout win in Boley’s first start coming against Georgia and South Carolina on the road. In fact, the Wildcats have faced the third toughest schedule in the country to this point per PFF, with the other loss being a covering 30-23 defeat to undefeated Mississippi.
We simply do not think this Texas team is at the same elite status as last year’s squad, and we do not expect this offense to score enough points to cover this big spot against a competent team with two weeks to prepare. Take the big points with Kentucky.
THE PICK
Kentucky +13 -108 at Heritage
Remember that we will have more plays than these, so make sure to keep checking the NCAAF Picks thread for additions.
