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College Football Championship Pick Monday: Hurricanes Not Expected to Slow Hoosiers
We are now 38-31 across All Sports with our write-ups after losing our NCAAB pick on Wednesday. But we are a solid 23-14 in College Football, and we have a creative play for Monday in the College Football Playoff Championship.
Miami Hurricanes vs. Indiana Hoosiers
Monday, January 19th – 7:30pm ET
We are confident that Indiana will be crowned College Football Champions on Monday night, but the posted point spread is not too far off from our modeled line, and the money line is too prohibitive for our tastes. However, we think we have found a +EV course of attack when the Hoosiers take on the Miami Hurricanes.
Hoosiers Blew Out Higher Ranked Team
The Hoosiers went to a perfect 15-0 by annihilating Oregon 56-22 in the semifinals and consider that Ducks team was a 5-seed while their opponents from Miami here are 10-seeds. Moreover, most reputable power ratings indeed have Oregon ranked higher than Miami, as do our own.
We feel that not only is Indiana the best team in the country this year, but also one of the best teams in quite a few years. They have a balanced offense led by the passing of Heisman Trophy winning quarterback Fernando Mendoza and a running game that ranked 12th in the country in rushing at 218.3 yards per game. That combination led to averaging a hefty 7.0 yards per play overall, which was seventh best in the nation.
And then there is also the defense which ranked second in points allowed at a mere 11.1 per game and third in total defense. Perhaps most importantly in regard to this matchup, the Hoosiers are second in rushing defense allowing just 75.0 yards per game on the ground, which should take away what we think that Miami wants to do here, which is establishing a running game early.
Where Is Miami Pass Rush?
We were lucky to win our bet with Miami’s 31-27 win over Mississippi to reach this championship game. We say “lucky” because the game did not at all go as we predicted, as we expected the Hurricanes’ defense to be the key to victory. Instead, we got a shootout, especially in the second half with both teams marching up and down the field and the Canes scoring the winning touchdown with 18 seconds remaining.
The Miami defense led the country this season with 47 sacks and finished seventh in tackles-for-loss with 96, leading to leading the land in Pressure per PFF. However, that defense did not show up against Old Miss while recording just one sack. It could be that the Canes’ defensive numbers are a bit skewed by facing lesser offenses in the ACC, but regardless, when they do not apply pressure, they are prone to allowing big plays ranking 89th in Explosive Passes Allowed.
Of course, there is always the chance that the lack of a pass rush last game was a one-off, but if not, Indiana is even better equipped to have Explosives than Mississippi successfully was. And that is not to mention the problems Miami would have offensively if they cannot establish a running game against a truly elite rushing defense.
In the end though, our model pegs this line at Indiana -9.4, not significantly off the current line of -8 or -8.5. Yes, that line is using Miami pass rush stats for the full season, so it could be a tad higher if we downgrade that rush after last game. Still, we see great value in betting on a 6-point teaser here, bringing Indiana down to under a field goal and the total down to 41, a number that the Hoosiers can approach by themselves. So that is our official play on this game.
THE PICK
TEASER:
Indiana -2 / OVER 41 (+100) at Bookmaker
We are now 38-31 across All Sports with our write-ups after losing our NCAAB pick on Wednesday. But we are a solid 23-14 in College Football, and we have a creative play for Monday in the College Football Playoff Championship.
Miami Hurricanes vs. Indiana Hoosiers
Monday, January 19th – 7:30pm ET
We are confident that Indiana will be crowned College Football Champions on Monday night, but the posted point spread is not too far off from our modeled line, and the money line is too prohibitive for our tastes. However, we think we have found a +EV course of attack when the Hoosiers take on the Miami Hurricanes.
Hoosiers Blew Out Higher Ranked Team
The Hoosiers went to a perfect 15-0 by annihilating Oregon 56-22 in the semifinals and consider that Ducks team was a 5-seed while their opponents from Miami here are 10-seeds. Moreover, most reputable power ratings indeed have Oregon ranked higher than Miami, as do our own.
We feel that not only is Indiana the best team in the country this year, but also one of the best teams in quite a few years. They have a balanced offense led by the passing of Heisman Trophy winning quarterback Fernando Mendoza and a running game that ranked 12th in the country in rushing at 218.3 yards per game. That combination led to averaging a hefty 7.0 yards per play overall, which was seventh best in the nation.
And then there is also the defense which ranked second in points allowed at a mere 11.1 per game and third in total defense. Perhaps most importantly in regard to this matchup, the Hoosiers are second in rushing defense allowing just 75.0 yards per game on the ground, which should take away what we think that Miami wants to do here, which is establishing a running game early.
Where Is Miami Pass Rush?
We were lucky to win our bet with Miami’s 31-27 win over Mississippi to reach this championship game. We say “lucky” because the game did not at all go as we predicted, as we expected the Hurricanes’ defense to be the key to victory. Instead, we got a shootout, especially in the second half with both teams marching up and down the field and the Canes scoring the winning touchdown with 18 seconds remaining.
The Miami defense led the country this season with 47 sacks and finished seventh in tackles-for-loss with 96, leading to leading the land in Pressure per PFF. However, that defense did not show up against Old Miss while recording just one sack. It could be that the Canes’ defensive numbers are a bit skewed by facing lesser offenses in the ACC, but regardless, when they do not apply pressure, they are prone to allowing big plays ranking 89th in Explosive Passes Allowed.
Of course, there is always the chance that the lack of a pass rush last game was a one-off, but if not, Indiana is even better equipped to have Explosives than Mississippi successfully was. And that is not to mention the problems Miami would have offensively if they cannot establish a running game against a truly elite rushing defense.
In the end though, our model pegs this line at Indiana -9.4, not significantly off the current line of -8 or -8.5. Yes, that line is using Miami pass rush stats for the full season, so it could be a tad higher if we downgrade that rush after last game. Still, we see great value in betting on a 6-point teaser here, bringing Indiana down to under a field goal and the total down to 41, a number that the Hoosiers can approach by themselves. So that is our official play on this game.
THE PICK
TEASER:
Indiana -2 / OVER 41 (+100) at Bookmaker
