Just some highlights:
I agree Miami defense is the biggest variable, but Notre Dame breaking in new QB (I assume Carr but would be new QB regardless) and already lost starting tight end and promising RB Young for the season. Miami new Defensive Coordinator did great job at Minnesota last year, and only 4 returning starters on defense may be a good thing

Canes have top 10 recruiting class with 2 top prospects at linebacker and one at safety.
Beck should be great for Miamt eventually, but he did miss a lot of practice while being put into a brand new system. Canes may be a little more run heavy until he acclimates. And Notre Dame defense still looks strong.
As for side, model currently has ND around -3.5, but I am not keen giving points in true road game here. Then agian, I MIGHT if line drops, currently -2 available.