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College Football Bowl Picks for Saturday: Scoring to be Tough in Gator Bowl
We dropped to 31-26 across All Sports with our write-ups following our NCAA Basketball loss on Tuesday. We are still a good 17-12 in College Football though, and we now return with three bowl picks for Saturday highlighted by Virginia vs Missouri in the Gator Bowl. Our first game kicks off early at 11:00am ET.
Pittsburgh Panthers vs. East Carolina Pirates
Saturday, December 27th – 11:00am ET
We do not expect a ton of scoring in a game affected by offensive departures on one side and a probable lack of motivation on the other, and the 11 AM local time kick-off time does not help matters. We are backing the Under when Pittsburgh takes on East Carolina in the Military Bowl in Annapolis.
Pirates Offense a Shell of Regular Season
East Carolina went 8-4 and averaged 33.5 points per game while finishing 16th in the nation in passing offense during the regular season. However, the Pirates will be without starting quarterback Katin Houser, wide receiver Yannick Smith, tight end Jayvontay Conner and starting tackle Jimarion McCrimon, who all entered the transfer portal.
Houser passed for 3,300 yards and 19 touchdowns this season, and he will now be replaced by either Mike Wright, who is more of a runner than a passer, or freshman Chaston Ditta. Meanwhile, Smith and Conner were on the other end of nearly 1,000 of those passing yards. That may lead to the Pirates trying to run the ball more, and they did average a good 185.0 rushing yards per game.
But, that was against some weak rushing defenses in the AAC, and they now step up against a Pitt defense ranked ninth in rushing defense allowing just 97.0 yards per game and fifth in yards per carry allowed at a tiny 2.8!
And to further complicate matters, ECU offensive coordinator John David Baker left to take the same position at Mississippi.
Do Panthers Want to Be Here?
Pittsburgh finished an identical 8-4, but their season ending 38-7 blowout loss to Miami cost them a spot in the ACC Championship Game. That brings up the question of motivation for this lesser bowl game, and coach Pat Narduzzi is 2-5 straight up in bowls with just about all of them being “minor” bowls like this one. That is an indication that he does not take these too seriously.
Numbers-wise, the Panthers played great defense all season, but the offense ranked 67th in total yards, and that unit lost running back Desmond Reid, who declared for the NFL Draft. Pittsburgh managed just 30 rushing yards on 21 carries as a team in the critical finale against the Hurricanes, and easier schedule notwithstanding, East Carolina did finish 29th in the land in rushing defense.
In summary, East Carolina is missing a lot of parts that keyed their offensive success this season, while Pittsburgh is without a key cog in Reid and may not care very much after just missing out on a better bowl. We are betting on the Under in the Military Bowl.
THE PICK
Under 53 -108 at Heritage
Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets vs. BYU Cougars
Saturday, December 27th – 3:30pm ET
While we realize that we have been down on BYU for most of the season with their frontline numbers not aligning with their peripherals, we do think this is a favorable matchup for them. Thus, we are betting on the Cougars as modest favorites over Georgia Tech in the Pop-Tarts Bowl.
Faced Tougher Schedule
BYU finished at 11-2 with both losses coming against Texas Tech in blowout fashion, most recently in the Big 12 Championship. That record was aided by one of the largest turnover differentials in the country and quite a few defensive and special-team touchdowns. But nonetheless, they did face a difficult Big 12 schedule, in fact facing an SOS ranked 21st by PFF. Comparatively, Georgia Tech faced an SOS rated 58th.
And perhaps the best news for the Cougars is that everyone is playing with no opt-outs or transfers, and that includes quarterback Bear Bachmeier, who appears healed from his ankle injury.
But even with a healthy Bachmeier, the strength of the BYU offense is a rushing offense that averaged 184.4 yards per game to rank 40th in the country. Moreover, that unit graded out better metrically, ranking 29th in rushing per PFF and an excellent 14th in run blocking. That makes for a great matchup against a Georgia Tech team ranked 92nd in raw rushing defense, as well as 99th against the run and 116th in Tackling on PFF.
We expect that rushing success to take the pressure off Bachmeier, who still has too many Turnover Worthy Throws for our taste.
Bad Matchup Stylistically for Tech
Georgia Tech finished 9-3, but we already alluded to the easier SOS faced while playing in the ACC, and while the BYU running game matches up well against the Tech rushing defense, the same cannot be said about the Yellow Jackets.
Yes, Georgia Teck ranks 20th in the country in rushing at a robust 203.0 yards per game, but we do not expect that same kind of success here. That is because BYU has an excellent run-defense ranked 32nd in raw rushing yards allowed, but it goes beyond that. The Cougars have had great success against power run concepts, which is the biggest staple of the Georgia Tech rushing attack.
Now, Tech was the most balanced it has been in many years during the regular season ranking 32nd in passing offense. However, that success relied on the great rushing success to open things up for the passing game, and while quarterback Haynes King is expected to play after being a potential opt-out, we are not sure we trust him to carry an offense on his own if the running game does not click as usual.
In the end, while Georgia Tech is renowned for their running game, we feel that it is BYU more likely to dominate this game on the ground given the opposing defenses. That is enough for us to give the points at a reasonable number with the Cougars.
THE PICK
BYU -3.5 -109 at Bet105
Virginia Cavaliers vs. Missouri Tigers
Saturday, December 27th – 7:30pm ET
With one team having already lost a lot offensively since the end of the season, and the other team probably lacking motivation after blowing a spot in the College Football Playoff, we are supporting the Under in the Gator Bowl with Virginia facing Missouri.
Everything on Ground for Mizzou
Missouri went 8-4 this season, but none of those eight wins came against a team that finished with a winning record! Also, the Tigers already have an extremely run-heavy offense, and that could be taken to extreme measures here with practically nothing expected from the passing game. That is because starting quarterback Beau Pribula and wide receivers Josh Manning and Marquis Johnson are all out after entering the transfer portal.
Yes, Mizzou does still have a great rushing offense that ranked ninth in the country, keyed by one of the best running backs in the nation in Ahmad Hardy. And under normal circumstances, Hardy would be able to chew up a Virginia team ranked outside the top 60 in Defensive Line Yards and Defensive Stuff Rate.
However, with the Tigers’ passing offense so depleted, the Cavaliers could focus solely on stopping Hardy by probably adding one man in the box. That may not stop him entirely, but it could at least slow him down. The inherent effect of that would be more time-consuming drives, which is always good for the Under.
Cavs May Not Get Usual Explosive Runs
Virginia had a clear path to a College Football Playoff spot, as after going 10-2 during the regular season, all they had to do was beat a 5-loss Duke team in the ACC Championship Game in which they were obviously favored in. However, the Cavaliers came up short 27-20 in overtime, so we cannot imagine them being excited to play in this lesser bowl after coming so close.
Taking motivation out of the equation, the Cavs have a stud running back of their own in J’Mari Taylor, who ran for 1,062 yards and 14 touchdowns. However, this is a difficult matchup for several reasons.
First. Taylor and the rest of the Virginia rushing offense relied on Explosive Runs, and a higher-than-average number of those this year allowed the Cavs to overachieve a bit. Well, they may not have as many of those in this game with Missouri in the Top 20 in Defensive Rush EPA Allowed. Secondly, Virginia usually uses outside zone concepts with Taylor, a concept the Missouri defense has feasted against all season.
So, this is a matchup of two great running backs that may not have the same success that they have had all season but can still be successful enough to move the chains. We see the end-result of that being long drive for both sides, which has us betting on the Under in Jacksonville.
THE PICK
Under 45 -108 at Heritage
Remember that we already have more bowl plays posted besides these and will almost certainly be adding more, so make sure to keep checking the NCAAF Picks thread for additions.
We dropped to 31-26 across All Sports with our write-ups following our NCAA Basketball loss on Tuesday. We are still a good 17-12 in College Football though, and we now return with three bowl picks for Saturday highlighted by Virginia vs Missouri in the Gator Bowl. Our first game kicks off early at 11:00am ET.
Pittsburgh Panthers vs. East Carolina Pirates
Saturday, December 27th – 11:00am ET
We do not expect a ton of scoring in a game affected by offensive departures on one side and a probable lack of motivation on the other, and the 11 AM local time kick-off time does not help matters. We are backing the Under when Pittsburgh takes on East Carolina in the Military Bowl in Annapolis.
Pirates Offense a Shell of Regular Season
East Carolina went 8-4 and averaged 33.5 points per game while finishing 16th in the nation in passing offense during the regular season. However, the Pirates will be without starting quarterback Katin Houser, wide receiver Yannick Smith, tight end Jayvontay Conner and starting tackle Jimarion McCrimon, who all entered the transfer portal.
Houser passed for 3,300 yards and 19 touchdowns this season, and he will now be replaced by either Mike Wright, who is more of a runner than a passer, or freshman Chaston Ditta. Meanwhile, Smith and Conner were on the other end of nearly 1,000 of those passing yards. That may lead to the Pirates trying to run the ball more, and they did average a good 185.0 rushing yards per game.
But, that was against some weak rushing defenses in the AAC, and they now step up against a Pitt defense ranked ninth in rushing defense allowing just 97.0 yards per game and fifth in yards per carry allowed at a tiny 2.8!
And to further complicate matters, ECU offensive coordinator John David Baker left to take the same position at Mississippi.
Do Panthers Want to Be Here?
Pittsburgh finished an identical 8-4, but their season ending 38-7 blowout loss to Miami cost them a spot in the ACC Championship Game. That brings up the question of motivation for this lesser bowl game, and coach Pat Narduzzi is 2-5 straight up in bowls with just about all of them being “minor” bowls like this one. That is an indication that he does not take these too seriously.
Numbers-wise, the Panthers played great defense all season, but the offense ranked 67th in total yards, and that unit lost running back Desmond Reid, who declared for the NFL Draft. Pittsburgh managed just 30 rushing yards on 21 carries as a team in the critical finale against the Hurricanes, and easier schedule notwithstanding, East Carolina did finish 29th in the land in rushing defense.
In summary, East Carolina is missing a lot of parts that keyed their offensive success this season, while Pittsburgh is without a key cog in Reid and may not care very much after just missing out on a better bowl. We are betting on the Under in the Military Bowl.
THE PICK
Under 53 -108 at Heritage
Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets vs. BYU Cougars
Saturday, December 27th – 3:30pm ET
While we realize that we have been down on BYU for most of the season with their frontline numbers not aligning with their peripherals, we do think this is a favorable matchup for them. Thus, we are betting on the Cougars as modest favorites over Georgia Tech in the Pop-Tarts Bowl.
Faced Tougher Schedule
BYU finished at 11-2 with both losses coming against Texas Tech in blowout fashion, most recently in the Big 12 Championship. That record was aided by one of the largest turnover differentials in the country and quite a few defensive and special-team touchdowns. But nonetheless, they did face a difficult Big 12 schedule, in fact facing an SOS ranked 21st by PFF. Comparatively, Georgia Tech faced an SOS rated 58th.
And perhaps the best news for the Cougars is that everyone is playing with no opt-outs or transfers, and that includes quarterback Bear Bachmeier, who appears healed from his ankle injury.
But even with a healthy Bachmeier, the strength of the BYU offense is a rushing offense that averaged 184.4 yards per game to rank 40th in the country. Moreover, that unit graded out better metrically, ranking 29th in rushing per PFF and an excellent 14th in run blocking. That makes for a great matchup against a Georgia Tech team ranked 92nd in raw rushing defense, as well as 99th against the run and 116th in Tackling on PFF.
We expect that rushing success to take the pressure off Bachmeier, who still has too many Turnover Worthy Throws for our taste.
Bad Matchup Stylistically for Tech
Georgia Tech finished 9-3, but we already alluded to the easier SOS faced while playing in the ACC, and while the BYU running game matches up well against the Tech rushing defense, the same cannot be said about the Yellow Jackets.
Yes, Georgia Teck ranks 20th in the country in rushing at a robust 203.0 yards per game, but we do not expect that same kind of success here. That is because BYU has an excellent run-defense ranked 32nd in raw rushing yards allowed, but it goes beyond that. The Cougars have had great success against power run concepts, which is the biggest staple of the Georgia Tech rushing attack.
Now, Tech was the most balanced it has been in many years during the regular season ranking 32nd in passing offense. However, that success relied on the great rushing success to open things up for the passing game, and while quarterback Haynes King is expected to play after being a potential opt-out, we are not sure we trust him to carry an offense on his own if the running game does not click as usual.
In the end, while Georgia Tech is renowned for their running game, we feel that it is BYU more likely to dominate this game on the ground given the opposing defenses. That is enough for us to give the points at a reasonable number with the Cougars.
THE PICK
BYU -3.5 -109 at Bet105
Virginia Cavaliers vs. Missouri Tigers
Saturday, December 27th – 7:30pm ET
With one team having already lost a lot offensively since the end of the season, and the other team probably lacking motivation after blowing a spot in the College Football Playoff, we are supporting the Under in the Gator Bowl with Virginia facing Missouri.
Everything on Ground for Mizzou
Missouri went 8-4 this season, but none of those eight wins came against a team that finished with a winning record! Also, the Tigers already have an extremely run-heavy offense, and that could be taken to extreme measures here with practically nothing expected from the passing game. That is because starting quarterback Beau Pribula and wide receivers Josh Manning and Marquis Johnson are all out after entering the transfer portal.
Yes, Mizzou does still have a great rushing offense that ranked ninth in the country, keyed by one of the best running backs in the nation in Ahmad Hardy. And under normal circumstances, Hardy would be able to chew up a Virginia team ranked outside the top 60 in Defensive Line Yards and Defensive Stuff Rate.
However, with the Tigers’ passing offense so depleted, the Cavaliers could focus solely on stopping Hardy by probably adding one man in the box. That may not stop him entirely, but it could at least slow him down. The inherent effect of that would be more time-consuming drives, which is always good for the Under.
Cavs May Not Get Usual Explosive Runs
Virginia had a clear path to a College Football Playoff spot, as after going 10-2 during the regular season, all they had to do was beat a 5-loss Duke team in the ACC Championship Game in which they were obviously favored in. However, the Cavaliers came up short 27-20 in overtime, so we cannot imagine them being excited to play in this lesser bowl after coming so close.
Taking motivation out of the equation, the Cavs have a stud running back of their own in J’Mari Taylor, who ran for 1,062 yards and 14 touchdowns. However, this is a difficult matchup for several reasons.
First. Taylor and the rest of the Virginia rushing offense relied on Explosive Runs, and a higher-than-average number of those this year allowed the Cavs to overachieve a bit. Well, they may not have as many of those in this game with Missouri in the Top 20 in Defensive Rush EPA Allowed. Secondly, Virginia usually uses outside zone concepts with Taylor, a concept the Missouri defense has feasted against all season.
So, this is a matchup of two great running backs that may not have the same success that they have had all season but can still be successful enough to move the chains. We see the end-result of that being long drive for both sides, which has us betting on the Under in Jacksonville.
THE PICK
Under 45 -108 at Heritage
Remember that we already have more bowl plays posted besides these and will almost certainly be adding more, so make sure to keep checking the NCAAF Picks thread for additions.
