LT Profits
- Joined
- Feb 27, 2023
- Messages
- 12,025
College Football Bowl Pick for Thursday: Hurricanes Blow Past Rebels in Fiesta Bowl
We are still 35-29 across All Sports with our write-ups after losing our NCAA Basketball pick on Tuesday. That includes a 21-14 record in College Football, and we have a semifinal play for Thursday for Miami vs. Mississippi in the Fiesta Bowl.
Miami Hurricanes vs. Mississippi Rebels
Thursday, January 8th – 7:30pm ET
After a pair of upsets in the national quarterfinals, we have a Fiesta Bowl matchup of 10th seeded Miami-Florida taking on 6th seeded Mississippi. Moreover, lower seeded Miami is a small favorite here, and we are going with the adage of “Good defense stops good offense” and backing the Hurricanes to cover the short number.
Pressure Can Get to Chambliss
Ole Miss got here by upsetting Georgia 39-34, and they certainly deserved that win after outgaining the Bulldogs 473-343 in the yardage department and Georgia benefitting from a defensive touchdown. Quarterback Trinidad Chamblis continued to perform at an All-American level as he has all year, completing 30-of-46 passes for 362 yards and two touchdowns without an interception.
However, two of Chamblis’s worst games this season came when he faced pressure from Florida and lowly Washington State. The Rebels trailed Florida in the fourth quarter mainly due to the Gators applying 11 Pressures per PFF and recording three sacks. And they were life-and-death to beat the Cougars by three points as 33-point favorites with Wazzou recording 10 Pressures and five sacks.
The significance of that here is that literally no defense in the country applies more Pressure than Miami, which leads the nation in that metric while also ranking third in sacks per game at 3.4. The Hurricanes are also in the Top 10 in Havoc defensively, a formula that combines sacks, turnovers and tackles-for-loss.
To complicate matters further, five Mississippi assistant coaches that were still present for the upset of Georgia have now moved on to join departed head coach Lane Kiffin at LSU!
Canes Should Run All Day
The Hurricanes upset second ranked and defending national champions Ohio State 24-14, becoming the first team all year to score more than 16 points on the Buckeyes defense. Even more impressively, they rushed for 153 yards against an elite defense, with Mark Fletcher running for 90 of those yards on 19 carries. That helped elevate Fletcher to now being the sixth ranked running back in the country on PFF.
If the Canes can do that against Ohio State, they should be able to dominate on the ground here against an Ole Miss defense ranked 62nd in raw rushing defense permitting 146.2 yards per game on the ground. And the news is not any better metrically where the Rebels rank an alarming 81st in Tackling and 92nd in Line Yards.
Also remember that Miami quarterback Carson Beck is familiar with the Mississippi defense from his years at Georgia.
In the end, we look for the Hurricanes to win this game the old-fashioned way, by successfully running the football and playing great defense. Bet on Miami as reasonable favorites to advance to the National Championship Game.
THE PICK
Miami -3 -115 at Bookmaker
We are still 35-29 across All Sports with our write-ups after losing our NCAA Basketball pick on Tuesday. That includes a 21-14 record in College Football, and we have a semifinal play for Thursday for Miami vs. Mississippi in the Fiesta Bowl.
Miami Hurricanes vs. Mississippi Rebels
Thursday, January 8th – 7:30pm ET
After a pair of upsets in the national quarterfinals, we have a Fiesta Bowl matchup of 10th seeded Miami-Florida taking on 6th seeded Mississippi. Moreover, lower seeded Miami is a small favorite here, and we are going with the adage of “Good defense stops good offense” and backing the Hurricanes to cover the short number.
Pressure Can Get to Chambliss
Ole Miss got here by upsetting Georgia 39-34, and they certainly deserved that win after outgaining the Bulldogs 473-343 in the yardage department and Georgia benefitting from a defensive touchdown. Quarterback Trinidad Chamblis continued to perform at an All-American level as he has all year, completing 30-of-46 passes for 362 yards and two touchdowns without an interception.
However, two of Chamblis’s worst games this season came when he faced pressure from Florida and lowly Washington State. The Rebels trailed Florida in the fourth quarter mainly due to the Gators applying 11 Pressures per PFF and recording three sacks. And they were life-and-death to beat the Cougars by three points as 33-point favorites with Wazzou recording 10 Pressures and five sacks.
The significance of that here is that literally no defense in the country applies more Pressure than Miami, which leads the nation in that metric while also ranking third in sacks per game at 3.4. The Hurricanes are also in the Top 10 in Havoc defensively, a formula that combines sacks, turnovers and tackles-for-loss.
To complicate matters further, five Mississippi assistant coaches that were still present for the upset of Georgia have now moved on to join departed head coach Lane Kiffin at LSU!
Canes Should Run All Day
The Hurricanes upset second ranked and defending national champions Ohio State 24-14, becoming the first team all year to score more than 16 points on the Buckeyes defense. Even more impressively, they rushed for 153 yards against an elite defense, with Mark Fletcher running for 90 of those yards on 19 carries. That helped elevate Fletcher to now being the sixth ranked running back in the country on PFF.
If the Canes can do that against Ohio State, they should be able to dominate on the ground here against an Ole Miss defense ranked 62nd in raw rushing defense permitting 146.2 yards per game on the ground. And the news is not any better metrically where the Rebels rank an alarming 81st in Tackling and 92nd in Line Yards.
Also remember that Miami quarterback Carson Beck is familiar with the Mississippi defense from his years at Georgia.
In the end, we look for the Hurricanes to win this game the old-fashioned way, by successfully running the football and playing great defense. Bet on Miami as reasonable favorites to advance to the National Championship Game.
THE PICK
Miami -3 -115 at Bookmaker
