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NCAA Basketball Pick for Wednesday: Lobos to Sink Aggies at The Pit
We improved to 42-33-1 across All Sports with our write-ups after our NCAA Basketball win on Tuesday. We have a play on a huge late Mountain West Conference matchup Wednesday in Utah State at New Mexico on Fox Sports 1.
Utah State Aggies vs. New Mexico Lobos
Wednesday, February 4th – 11:00pm ET
There is a huge Mountain West game worth staying up for Wednesday night, where we look for New Mexico to remain perfect at home as short favorites when hosting Utah State at 11:00 PM ET on FS1.
Lobos Unbeaten at The Pit
This winner of this game will be tied for first place in the Mountain, as these teams are currently tied for second at 9-2 while 10-2 San Diego State is off until Saturday. The Lobos are 18-4 overall and these two teams are very close in just about every Kenpom component on both ends of the floor except free throw shooting (more on that later). However, as usual, New Mexico has risen above their overall numbers when playing here in Albuquerque.
The Pit has long been considered one of the strongest home court advantages in the country, and this year is no exception with Kenpom ranking the Lobos’ HCA third in the land at +4.3 points. That has helped result in New Mexico being undefeated at home at 12-0 with an average winning margin of +19.5 points! That includes an AMOV of +16.4 points in their five home conference wins.
The Lobos are well balanced, ranking 70th in offensive efficiency and 26th in defensive efficiency overall, but third offensively and second defensively inside the conference.
Poor Free Throw Shooting for Aggies
Utah State comes in at 18-3 overall, and despite these teams having very similar profiles and being tied near the top of a MWC ranked as the sixth best conference in the nation (highest non-Power) per Kenpom, the Aggies were the only one of these teams that received any votes in the latest AP Poll (6). Granted, that was not enough to crack the Top 25, but we still feel that New Mexico is worthy of receiving votes too.
The Aggies rank 41st in offensive efficiency overall and 39th defensively, and they lead the conference on offense while ranking fourth on defense. However, those overall rankings do not account for now visiting the toughest road venue they have seen all season. And remember what we said earlier about free throw shooting being the biggest disparity between these teams, which can come up huge in a close game with these squads close in other areas.
While New Mexico is above average in free throw shooting at 75.1%, the Aggies rank 249th in the country at 70.3%, a rate that has dropped to 68.8% in the conference to rank 11th in a 12-team league.
We feel that the biggest factor in this game is the huge home-court advantage for a Lobos team that has yet to lose at The Pit, but Utah State’s poor foul shooting does not help their cause either. Bet on New Mexico as short home chalk late Wednesday night.
THE PICK
New Mexico -2 at Heritage
We improved to 42-33-1 across All Sports with our write-ups after our NCAA Basketball win on Tuesday. We have a play on a huge late Mountain West Conference matchup Wednesday in Utah State at New Mexico on Fox Sports 1.
Utah State Aggies vs. New Mexico Lobos
Wednesday, February 4th – 11:00pm ET
There is a huge Mountain West game worth staying up for Wednesday night, where we look for New Mexico to remain perfect at home as short favorites when hosting Utah State at 11:00 PM ET on FS1.
Lobos Unbeaten at The Pit
This winner of this game will be tied for first place in the Mountain, as these teams are currently tied for second at 9-2 while 10-2 San Diego State is off until Saturday. The Lobos are 18-4 overall and these two teams are very close in just about every Kenpom component on both ends of the floor except free throw shooting (more on that later). However, as usual, New Mexico has risen above their overall numbers when playing here in Albuquerque.
The Pit has long been considered one of the strongest home court advantages in the country, and this year is no exception with Kenpom ranking the Lobos’ HCA third in the land at +4.3 points. That has helped result in New Mexico being undefeated at home at 12-0 with an average winning margin of +19.5 points! That includes an AMOV of +16.4 points in their five home conference wins.
The Lobos are well balanced, ranking 70th in offensive efficiency and 26th in defensive efficiency overall, but third offensively and second defensively inside the conference.
Poor Free Throw Shooting for Aggies
Utah State comes in at 18-3 overall, and despite these teams having very similar profiles and being tied near the top of a MWC ranked as the sixth best conference in the nation (highest non-Power) per Kenpom, the Aggies were the only one of these teams that received any votes in the latest AP Poll (6). Granted, that was not enough to crack the Top 25, but we still feel that New Mexico is worthy of receiving votes too.
The Aggies rank 41st in offensive efficiency overall and 39th defensively, and they lead the conference on offense while ranking fourth on defense. However, those overall rankings do not account for now visiting the toughest road venue they have seen all season. And remember what we said earlier about free throw shooting being the biggest disparity between these teams, which can come up huge in a close game with these squads close in other areas.
While New Mexico is above average in free throw shooting at 75.1%, the Aggies rank 249th in the country at 70.3%, a rate that has dropped to 68.8% in the conference to rank 11th in a 12-team league.
We feel that the biggest factor in this game is the huge home-court advantage for a Lobos team that has yet to lose at The Pit, but Utah State’s poor foul shooting does not help their cause either. Bet on New Mexico as short home chalk late Wednesday night.
THE PICK
New Mexico -2 at Heritage
