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NCAA Basketball Pick for Wednesday: Orange to Squeeze Golden Bears in Syracuse
We fell to 42-35-1 across All Sports with our write-ups after losing our NCAA Basketball play Tuesday. We look to bounce back with an ACC matchup Wednesday with a selection in California at Syracuse on ESPNU.
California Golden Bears vs. Syracuse Orange
Wednesday, February 11th – 7:00pm ET
We are expecting the home team to have an easier time than the line suggests in a nationally televised ACC matchup Wednesday, where we are backing Syracuse to prevail comfortably hosting California on ESPNU.
Orange To Have Success Inside
Syracuse is no longer the perennial NCAA Tournament team it was for many years under Jim Boeheim, but the Orange still have a winning record overall at 13-11 and they still have a solid home court advantage of +2.9 points per Kenpom. Furthermore, that HCA may get amplified here with California travelling 3,000 miles after playing at home on Sunday.
The Orange may not be elite, but they are solid on both ends ranking 82nd in offensive efficiency at 114.5 and 64th in defensive efficiency at 102.8 (national average 108.7). That leaves them ranked 70th overall on Kenpom despite the mediocre record. And a dissection of their offense indicates that they could potentially dominate inside in this contest.
Syracuse has a size advantage here, ranking 54th nationally in average height compared to a 134th ranking for the Golden Bears. Thus, they have a chance to exceed their already above average 2-point percentage of 54.6% (national average 51.7%) against a relatively undersized Cal team ranked 149th in 2-point defense. That inside defense has been far worse in ACC play too, with California 15th in the conference in 2-point defense at a bloated 56.9%!
Moreover, the Orange may not face much pressure with the Bears ranked 249th in turnover percentage forced.
Bears Travelled Long Way After Big Loss
The Golden Bears are the higher ranked Kenpom team by one spot here at 69th overall while sitting at a commendable 17-7, although they have a losing 5-6 record inside the conference. The fact that they are only one spot above Syracuse with a noticeably better record points to feasting on a cupcake non-conference schedule ranked 325th in SOS per Kenpom. Also, they are coming off a 77-55 blowout loss at home to Clemson Sunday before making this long cross-country trip.
Cal has the opposite approach offensively than Syracuse as the Bears rank 27th in the country in 3-point shooting at a very good 37.6% while struggling closer to the basket at 242nd in 2-point shooting. In fact, they are shooting a woeful 45.3% from 2-point range inside the ACC! Sure, they are capable of making enough 3’s to keep this game competitive, but they will also face resistance from an Orange defense that is third in the conference in 3-point defense at 30.5%.
So, besides Syracuse having home court advantage and Cal flying 3,000 miles after playing Sunday, the Orange can at least contain what the Bears do best (3-pointers) while we do not see Cal having an answer for what the Orange do best (2-pointers). Bet on Syracuse as moderate home favorites.
THE PICK
Syracuse -5.5 -108 at Heritage
We fell to 42-35-1 across All Sports with our write-ups after losing our NCAA Basketball play Tuesday. We look to bounce back with an ACC matchup Wednesday with a selection in California at Syracuse on ESPNU.
California Golden Bears vs. Syracuse Orange
Wednesday, February 11th – 7:00pm ET
We are expecting the home team to have an easier time than the line suggests in a nationally televised ACC matchup Wednesday, where we are backing Syracuse to prevail comfortably hosting California on ESPNU.
Orange To Have Success Inside
Syracuse is no longer the perennial NCAA Tournament team it was for many years under Jim Boeheim, but the Orange still have a winning record overall at 13-11 and they still have a solid home court advantage of +2.9 points per Kenpom. Furthermore, that HCA may get amplified here with California travelling 3,000 miles after playing at home on Sunday.
The Orange may not be elite, but they are solid on both ends ranking 82nd in offensive efficiency at 114.5 and 64th in defensive efficiency at 102.8 (national average 108.7). That leaves them ranked 70th overall on Kenpom despite the mediocre record. And a dissection of their offense indicates that they could potentially dominate inside in this contest.
Syracuse has a size advantage here, ranking 54th nationally in average height compared to a 134th ranking for the Golden Bears. Thus, they have a chance to exceed their already above average 2-point percentage of 54.6% (national average 51.7%) against a relatively undersized Cal team ranked 149th in 2-point defense. That inside defense has been far worse in ACC play too, with California 15th in the conference in 2-point defense at a bloated 56.9%!
Moreover, the Orange may not face much pressure with the Bears ranked 249th in turnover percentage forced.
Bears Travelled Long Way After Big Loss
The Golden Bears are the higher ranked Kenpom team by one spot here at 69th overall while sitting at a commendable 17-7, although they have a losing 5-6 record inside the conference. The fact that they are only one spot above Syracuse with a noticeably better record points to feasting on a cupcake non-conference schedule ranked 325th in SOS per Kenpom. Also, they are coming off a 77-55 blowout loss at home to Clemson Sunday before making this long cross-country trip.
Cal has the opposite approach offensively than Syracuse as the Bears rank 27th in the country in 3-point shooting at a very good 37.6% while struggling closer to the basket at 242nd in 2-point shooting. In fact, they are shooting a woeful 45.3% from 2-point range inside the ACC! Sure, they are capable of making enough 3’s to keep this game competitive, but they will also face resistance from an Orange defense that is third in the conference in 3-point defense at 30.5%.
So, besides Syracuse having home court advantage and Cal flying 3,000 miles after playing Sunday, the Orange can at least contain what the Bears do best (3-pointers) while we do not see Cal having an answer for what the Orange do best (2-pointers). Bet on Syracuse as moderate home favorites.
THE PICK
Syracuse -5.5 -108 at Heritage
