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NCAA Basketball Picks for Wednesday: Tigers Roar Past Warriors in New Jersey
We officially lost our NCAA Basketball pick with UConn on Tuesday, although some followers may have won with the line dropping to -3.5 for a while. We are still a good 29-19 across All Sports with all our write-ups, but a disappointing 7-8 in NCAAB (despite being 57-35-1 in our NCAAB Picks thread). We have one selection Wednesday in the Merrimack vs. Princeton matchup.
Merrimack Warriors vs. Princeton Tigers
Wednesday, December 10th – 5:00pm ET
Good value is not always found in marquee matchups, and we think such is the case in Princeton, NJ on Wednesday where we feel that the 3-9 Tigers will do enough to cover the modest spread at home against Merrimack.
One and Done for Warriors
Merrimack is 5-6 and ranked 278th on Kenpom to begin the season while struggling on both ends of the court, ranking 277th in offensive efficiency and 252nd in defensive efficiency. Granted, they had no chance against Auburn and Florida, but their other four losses did not come against great teams and none of their five wins came against a team ranked higher than 248th. Yes, Princeton is only 255th, but it is the components that we think will decide this contest.
You see, the Warriors figure to get practically no second opportunities in this game. That is because as bad as they rate overall, Princeton is an amazing ninth in the country in defensive rebounding percentage, allowing offensive rebounds just 23.8% of the time (national average 31.1%). Meanwhile, Merrimack is 336th in offensive rebounding percentage, so the end-result should be plenty of “one and done” trips tonight.
And that would make it hard to score for a team that ranks 316th in eFG%.
More Second Chances and Better Shooting
Now, by no means are we claiming that Princeton is a good team, as their 3-9 record has come against a schedule ranked 154th per Kenpom. But despite that, they rank 23 spots higher than Merrimack overall and they rank much higher in defensive efficiency at 185th. But again, we think the expected big edge in second chances for the Tigers will decide this wager.
Note that besides Princeton being elite in defensive rebounding percentage, Merrimack is terrible in that department at 364th out of 365 Division I teams. So, the Tigers should have a humongous edge in second opportunities, and while they are also a bad shooting team, they are still better in eFG% (48.9% vs. 45.9%), 2-point shooting (49.3% vs. 46.0%) and 3-point shooting (32.4% vs. 30.6%).
Thus, in a matchup of two bad shooting teams, this play comes down to Princeton having much more volume of shots while being the slightly better shooting team. Add in a better defense and bet on the Tigers as home favorites at a manageable number.
THE PICK
Princeton -3.5 -108 at Heritage
There is always a chance that we could have more plays later, so make sure to keep checking the NCAAB Picks thread for additions.
We officially lost our NCAA Basketball pick with UConn on Tuesday, although some followers may have won with the line dropping to -3.5 for a while. We are still a good 29-19 across All Sports with all our write-ups, but a disappointing 7-8 in NCAAB (despite being 57-35-1 in our NCAAB Picks thread). We have one selection Wednesday in the Merrimack vs. Princeton matchup.
Merrimack Warriors vs. Princeton Tigers
Wednesday, December 10th – 5:00pm ET
Good value is not always found in marquee matchups, and we think such is the case in Princeton, NJ on Wednesday where we feel that the 3-9 Tigers will do enough to cover the modest spread at home against Merrimack.
One and Done for Warriors
Merrimack is 5-6 and ranked 278th on Kenpom to begin the season while struggling on both ends of the court, ranking 277th in offensive efficiency and 252nd in defensive efficiency. Granted, they had no chance against Auburn and Florida, but their other four losses did not come against great teams and none of their five wins came against a team ranked higher than 248th. Yes, Princeton is only 255th, but it is the components that we think will decide this contest.
You see, the Warriors figure to get practically no second opportunities in this game. That is because as bad as they rate overall, Princeton is an amazing ninth in the country in defensive rebounding percentage, allowing offensive rebounds just 23.8% of the time (national average 31.1%). Meanwhile, Merrimack is 336th in offensive rebounding percentage, so the end-result should be plenty of “one and done” trips tonight.
And that would make it hard to score for a team that ranks 316th in eFG%.
More Second Chances and Better Shooting
Now, by no means are we claiming that Princeton is a good team, as their 3-9 record has come against a schedule ranked 154th per Kenpom. But despite that, they rank 23 spots higher than Merrimack overall and they rank much higher in defensive efficiency at 185th. But again, we think the expected big edge in second chances for the Tigers will decide this wager.
Note that besides Princeton being elite in defensive rebounding percentage, Merrimack is terrible in that department at 364th out of 365 Division I teams. So, the Tigers should have a humongous edge in second opportunities, and while they are also a bad shooting team, they are still better in eFG% (48.9% vs. 45.9%), 2-point shooting (49.3% vs. 46.0%) and 3-point shooting (32.4% vs. 30.6%).
Thus, in a matchup of two bad shooting teams, this play comes down to Princeton having much more volume of shots while being the slightly better shooting team. Add in a better defense and bet on the Tigers as home favorites at a manageable number.
THE PICK
Princeton -3.5 -108 at Heritage
There is always a chance that we could have more plays later, so make sure to keep checking the NCAAB Picks thread for additions.
So, Merrimack won while shooting just 39.1%.
