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NCAA Basketball Pick for Wednesday: Plenty of Points Produced in Philadelphia
We are still a solid 21-10 across All Sports with our write-ups despite losing our college football selection Tuesday. This includes being 4-3 in NCAA Basketball, and we have one play Wednesday in the Big 5 with Villanova visiting La Salle on CBS Sports Network.
Villanova Wildcats vs. La Salle Explorers
Wednesday, November 19th – 7:00pm ET
We believe we have found a light total in a Big 5 matchup on Wednesday and are thus backing the Over when Villanova visits La Salle in Philadelphia on CBSSN.
Lot of Second Chances for Wildcats
Villanova comes in at 3-1, and ironically their most impressive performance came in the lone defeat, a narrow 5-point loss to an excellent BYU team in Las Vegas. The three wins have not come against much with the highest ranked Kenpom team they conquered being #113 Duquesne, who they beat 87-77 in their last game on Saturday. Then again, they are also taking a step down tonight with La Salle ranked 219th currently.
The Wildcats are a commendable 39th in offensive efficiency, although they rank a noticeably worse 94th in eFG%. They have made up for that though with lots of put-backs via second chances, ranking third in the nation in offensive rebounding percentage at a whopping 47.1%. We expect more of the same tonight with the Explorers ranked only 138th in defensive rebounding percentage.
Considering that Villanova would probably fare well offensively even without all the second chances with La Salle being 255th in defensive efficiency and we expect the Cats to approach or top 80 points here.
3-Pointers Keep Explorers Alive
If we are correct in our assessment of Villanova tonight, it would leave the Explorers needing to score in the low-70s or quite possibly the upper-60s to push this game Over this posted total. Well, La Salle is 2-2 while scoring at least 69 points in three of those games, with the lowest output being 63 points at Temple in the other contest.
We feel that they will score enough to cash the Over here due to a nice advantage beyond the arc. You see, the Explorers rank 40th in the country in 3-point shooting at 39.7%, while Villanova has been dreadful in defending the perimeter, turning up 353rd out of 365 Division I teams in 3-point defense at a hugely generous 42.5%! To make matters worse, BYU only made 29.4% of their 3-pointers vs. the Wildcats, meaning the bulk of their perimeter issues came vs. three lightweights.
Also, it is not as if Villanova can key on just one shooter, with Jaeden Marshall, Rob Dockery and especially Ashton Walker (42.9%) all above that national average of 32.9% from the Land of 3 for La Salle.
In the end, we see both teams having enough paths to offensive success for this game to get into the 150s, even with Villanova doing the heavy lifting. Bet on the Over in Glaser Arena on Wednesday.
THE PICK
Over 145 +101 at Bookmaker
There is always a chance that we could have more plays later, so make sure to keep checking the NCAAB Picks thread for additions.
We are still a solid 21-10 across All Sports with our write-ups despite losing our college football selection Tuesday. This includes being 4-3 in NCAA Basketball, and we have one play Wednesday in the Big 5 with Villanova visiting La Salle on CBS Sports Network.
Villanova Wildcats vs. La Salle Explorers
Wednesday, November 19th – 7:00pm ET
We believe we have found a light total in a Big 5 matchup on Wednesday and are thus backing the Over when Villanova visits La Salle in Philadelphia on CBSSN.
Lot of Second Chances for Wildcats
Villanova comes in at 3-1, and ironically their most impressive performance came in the lone defeat, a narrow 5-point loss to an excellent BYU team in Las Vegas. The three wins have not come against much with the highest ranked Kenpom team they conquered being #113 Duquesne, who they beat 87-77 in their last game on Saturday. Then again, they are also taking a step down tonight with La Salle ranked 219th currently.
The Wildcats are a commendable 39th in offensive efficiency, although they rank a noticeably worse 94th in eFG%. They have made up for that though with lots of put-backs via second chances, ranking third in the nation in offensive rebounding percentage at a whopping 47.1%. We expect more of the same tonight with the Explorers ranked only 138th in defensive rebounding percentage.
Considering that Villanova would probably fare well offensively even without all the second chances with La Salle being 255th in defensive efficiency and we expect the Cats to approach or top 80 points here.
3-Pointers Keep Explorers Alive
If we are correct in our assessment of Villanova tonight, it would leave the Explorers needing to score in the low-70s or quite possibly the upper-60s to push this game Over this posted total. Well, La Salle is 2-2 while scoring at least 69 points in three of those games, with the lowest output being 63 points at Temple in the other contest.
We feel that they will score enough to cash the Over here due to a nice advantage beyond the arc. You see, the Explorers rank 40th in the country in 3-point shooting at 39.7%, while Villanova has been dreadful in defending the perimeter, turning up 353rd out of 365 Division I teams in 3-point defense at a hugely generous 42.5%! To make matters worse, BYU only made 29.4% of their 3-pointers vs. the Wildcats, meaning the bulk of their perimeter issues came vs. three lightweights.
Also, it is not as if Villanova can key on just one shooter, with Jaeden Marshall, Rob Dockery and especially Ashton Walker (42.9%) all above that national average of 32.9% from the Land of 3 for La Salle.
In the end, we see both teams having enough paths to offensive success for this game to get into the 150s, even with Villanova doing the heavy lifting. Bet on the Over in Glaser Arena on Wednesday.
THE PICK
Over 145 +101 at Bookmaker
There is always a chance that we could have more plays later, so make sure to keep checking the NCAAB Picks thread for additions.
