LT Profits
- Joined
- Feb 27, 2023
- Messages
- 12,559
NCAA Basketball Pick for Wednesday: Tigers to Roar Past Longhorns at Home
We improved to 41-32 across All Sports with our write-ups after winning our NCAA Basketball pick on Vanderbilt Tuesday. We are staying inside the SEC Wednesday with a play on Texas vs. Auburn on ESPN2.
Texas Longhorns vs. Auburn Tigers
Wednesday, January 28th – 7:00pm ET
We see a bigger advantage for the home team than the posted line suggests Wednesday night, so we are laying the points with Auburn when they host Texas in SEC action on ESPN2.
Auburn Faced Brutal Schedule
The Tigers are ranked 26th overall on Kenpom despite a mediocre 13-7 record, and they are 4-3 inside the SEC. That high ranking reflects having faced the second toughest SOS in the country per Kenpom, with a non-conference slate that featured four teams that are currently ranked in the Kenpom Top 8! The Tigers are also 8-1 here at home at Neville Arena, where they average a whopping 93.1 points per game, with the only loss being by two points to Texas A&M.
Auburn is 14th in the country in offensive efficiency at 124.8 (national average 109.4), and while they are only above average in eFG% at 53.2% (average 51.3%), they have made up for that with lots of second chances and good ball protection. They are 10th in the nation in offensive rebounding percentage and safely better than average in turnover percentage at 15.3% (average 17.1%).
Furthermore, they have been more than good enough defensively considering the success of the offense, ranking an above average 64th in defensive efficiency at 103.2.
Texas Defense Faltering in SEC Play
Texas comes in with just a 12-8 record overall and a losing 3-4 conference mark, although they too get an “SEC bump” on Kenpom ranking 36th overall. Still, while their SOS is also good ranking 28th, that is still noticeably lower than Auburn and the Longhorns have shown more of a decline since the start of the SEC season, especially on defense.
You see, Texas is already just 99th overall in defensive efficiency at 105.6, but that figure has skyrocketed to a distressing 116.4 in SEC play to rank 14th in the conference. The Horns have also not applied much pressure all season ranking 302nd in turnover percentage forced at 15.1%, with that number dropping to 14.0% in league play. That makes for a nightmarish matchup against an Auburn offense that has been explosive at home while protecting the basketball.
And Texas is not really a great come-from-behind team due to ranking 221st nationally in 3-point shooting at 33.1%, including 32.9% vs. SEC defenses.
We see this game playing out similarly to our pick last night, with the great Auburn offense building a lead against what has been a passive Texas defense, especially in conference, and the Longhorns unable to come back. Bet on the Tigers as favorites at home.
THE PICK
Auburn -6 -108 at Heritage
We improved to 41-32 across All Sports with our write-ups after winning our NCAA Basketball pick on Vanderbilt Tuesday. We are staying inside the SEC Wednesday with a play on Texas vs. Auburn on ESPN2.
Texas Longhorns vs. Auburn Tigers
Wednesday, January 28th – 7:00pm ET
We see a bigger advantage for the home team than the posted line suggests Wednesday night, so we are laying the points with Auburn when they host Texas in SEC action on ESPN2.
Auburn Faced Brutal Schedule
The Tigers are ranked 26th overall on Kenpom despite a mediocre 13-7 record, and they are 4-3 inside the SEC. That high ranking reflects having faced the second toughest SOS in the country per Kenpom, with a non-conference slate that featured four teams that are currently ranked in the Kenpom Top 8! The Tigers are also 8-1 here at home at Neville Arena, where they average a whopping 93.1 points per game, with the only loss being by two points to Texas A&M.
Auburn is 14th in the country in offensive efficiency at 124.8 (national average 109.4), and while they are only above average in eFG% at 53.2% (average 51.3%), they have made up for that with lots of second chances and good ball protection. They are 10th in the nation in offensive rebounding percentage and safely better than average in turnover percentage at 15.3% (average 17.1%).
Furthermore, they have been more than good enough defensively considering the success of the offense, ranking an above average 64th in defensive efficiency at 103.2.
Texas Defense Faltering in SEC Play
Texas comes in with just a 12-8 record overall and a losing 3-4 conference mark, although they too get an “SEC bump” on Kenpom ranking 36th overall. Still, while their SOS is also good ranking 28th, that is still noticeably lower than Auburn and the Longhorns have shown more of a decline since the start of the SEC season, especially on defense.
You see, Texas is already just 99th overall in defensive efficiency at 105.6, but that figure has skyrocketed to a distressing 116.4 in SEC play to rank 14th in the conference. The Horns have also not applied much pressure all season ranking 302nd in turnover percentage forced at 15.1%, with that number dropping to 14.0% in league play. That makes for a nightmarish matchup against an Auburn offense that has been explosive at home while protecting the basketball.
And Texas is not really a great come-from-behind team due to ranking 221st nationally in 3-point shooting at 33.1%, including 32.9% vs. SEC defenses.
We see this game playing out similarly to our pick last night, with the great Auburn offense building a lead against what has been a passive Texas defense, especially in conference, and the Longhorns unable to come back. Bet on the Tigers as favorites at home.
THE PICK
Auburn -6 -108 at Heritage
