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NCAA Basketball Pick for Wednesday: Horns to Hang with Wildcats in Lexington
We went to 39-31 across All Sports with our write-ups after winning our College Football Championship teaser on Monday. We now have a selection on the big Texas vs. Kentucky Basketball matchup on SEC Network Wednesday.
Texas Longhorns vs. Kentucky Wildcats
Wednesday, January 21st – 7:00pm ET
We think that there is an overlay Wednesday night in a game we anticipate being closer than the posted line suggests. We are taking the points with Texas when they pay a visit to Lexington to take on Kentucky on SEC Network.
Disappointing Wildcats?
Kentucky was once ranked #1 on Kenpom earlier this season, but they must be considered a disappointment since then, currently sitting at 12-6 overall and 3-2 in conference play. They also have uncharacteristically lost two games already at home here in Lexington, including a conference loss to Missouri (55th on Kenpom). The significance there is that their opponents from Texas here are ranked higher at 41st.
None of this is to say that the Wildcats are not a very good basketball team, but our issue here is we do not think they are substantially better than the Longhorns, at least not enough to justify this price. They rank 32nd nationally in offensive efficiency and 54th in eFG%, and they do not help themselves at the foul line much ranking 214th in FTA/FGA ratio. That takes on more significance in this game with Texas expected to have a huge edge in free throws (stay tuned).
is also interesting that the Wildcats have not gotten as many second chances as expected since the beginning of SEC play. Despite being the 19th tallest team in the country, Kentucky is just 10th inside the conference in offensive rebounding percentage at 32.2%. Comparatively, Texas is fourth in that department during league play at 37.2%.
Longhorns Get Cheap Points from Foul Line
Texas also has a mediocre record at 11-7, as well as a losing record of 2-3 inside the conference. However, they do rank higher than Kentucky in offensive efficiency at 18th despite ranking lower in eFG% at 82nd. And it is easy to see why the offensive efficiency gets such a boost, as no team in the nation is better at drawing fouls than the Longhorns.
They lead the entire country in FTA/FGA ratio at 50.1%. That makes them the only team in the nation with a higher ratio than 50%, helping lead to the 13th best scoring average in the land at 86.3 points per game. Granted, the Horns are just above average from the line at 73.1% (national average 71.2%), but it is the volume that boosts their scores.
And we have already touched on Texas’s edge in offensive rebounding in league play.
So, between all the extra free throws and second chances, we feel that Texas will score enough points to at least stay close in the game from start to finish, if not pull the upset. We are betting on the Longhorns at a seemingly generous price on the road.
THE PICK
Texas +7.5 -113 at Bookmaker
We went to 39-31 across All Sports with our write-ups after winning our College Football Championship teaser on Monday. We now have a selection on the big Texas vs. Kentucky Basketball matchup on SEC Network Wednesday.
Texas Longhorns vs. Kentucky Wildcats
Wednesday, January 21st – 7:00pm ET
We think that there is an overlay Wednesday night in a game we anticipate being closer than the posted line suggests. We are taking the points with Texas when they pay a visit to Lexington to take on Kentucky on SEC Network.
Disappointing Wildcats?
Kentucky was once ranked #1 on Kenpom earlier this season, but they must be considered a disappointment since then, currently sitting at 12-6 overall and 3-2 in conference play. They also have uncharacteristically lost two games already at home here in Lexington, including a conference loss to Missouri (55th on Kenpom). The significance there is that their opponents from Texas here are ranked higher at 41st.
None of this is to say that the Wildcats are not a very good basketball team, but our issue here is we do not think they are substantially better than the Longhorns, at least not enough to justify this price. They rank 32nd nationally in offensive efficiency and 54th in eFG%, and they do not help themselves at the foul line much ranking 214th in FTA/FGA ratio. That takes on more significance in this game with Texas expected to have a huge edge in free throws (stay tuned).
is also interesting that the Wildcats have not gotten as many second chances as expected since the beginning of SEC play. Despite being the 19th tallest team in the country, Kentucky is just 10th inside the conference in offensive rebounding percentage at 32.2%. Comparatively, Texas is fourth in that department during league play at 37.2%.
Longhorns Get Cheap Points from Foul Line
Texas also has a mediocre record at 11-7, as well as a losing record of 2-3 inside the conference. However, they do rank higher than Kentucky in offensive efficiency at 18th despite ranking lower in eFG% at 82nd. And it is easy to see why the offensive efficiency gets such a boost, as no team in the nation is better at drawing fouls than the Longhorns.
They lead the entire country in FTA/FGA ratio at 50.1%. That makes them the only team in the nation with a higher ratio than 50%, helping lead to the 13th best scoring average in the land at 86.3 points per game. Granted, the Horns are just above average from the line at 73.1% (national average 71.2%), but it is the volume that boosts their scores.
And we have already touched on Texas’s edge in offensive rebounding in league play.
So, between all the extra free throws and second chances, we feel that Texas will score enough points to at least stay close in the game from start to finish, if not pull the upset. We are betting on the Longhorns at a seemingly generous price on the road.
THE PICK
Texas +7.5 -113 at Bookmaker
