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NCAA Basketball Pick for Tuesday: Spartans to Conquer Bruins Handily at Home
We are 43-35-2 across All Sports with our write-ups after officially pushing our NCAA Basketball play with Belmont -5 Thursday, although those who waited won with the game closing -4. We now have a play on UCLA vs. Michigan State Tuesday on Peacock.
UCLA Bruins vs. Michigan State Spartans
Tuesday, February 17th – 8:30pm ET
The very first thing we do in our handicapping process before digging deeper into games is compare the posted lines to the line of our model. Well, we see a nice difference Tuesday where our modeled line of Michigan State -10.8 against UCLA is over two points higher than the posted spread. We are backing the Spartans as home favorites in East Lansing.
Sparty 7th in Defensive Efficiency
Michigan State is 20-5 overall and 10-4 inside the Big Ten, leaving them ranked 13th overall on Kenpom, two spots higher than their 15th ranking on the AP Poll. Perhaps this line is being compressed a bit with the Spartans losing three of their last four games. However, two of those losses were on the road and the home loss was to Kenpom #1 Michigan. In fact, Sparty is 12-2 at home with the two losses coming to the Top 2 Kenpom teams, with the other one to #2 Duke!
The Spartans are a commendable 43rd in offensive efficiency, but their strength has been defense where they are seventh in efficiency. Perhaps most critically for this game, they are a fantastic rebounding team on both ends, ranking fifth in offensive rebounding percentage and an even better second defensively. That makes this a dream matchup against a UCLA team that is terrible on the boards on both ends.
Plus, the recent skid makes this a bigger game for Michigan State than it may have seemed a couple of weeks ago, so we are looking for a maximum effort.
Bruins Rely Heavily on 3s
UCLA enters at 17-8 overall and 9-5 in conference following a 30-point loss at Michigan on Saturday. Yes, the Wolverines can dismantle any team right now, but the fact remains that the Bruins are ranked noticeably lower than Michigan State at #42 overall, and the Bruins have been relatively generous defensively ranking 103rd in eFG% allowed.
When UCLA is successful, it is mainly due to sharp 3-point shooting where they rank 17th in the land at 38.1% (national average 33.9%). However, they will face some resistance here from a Michigan State team allowing a 3-point success rate of only 31.4%. Conversely, it is the Spartans that should dominate closer to the basket, where UCLA is a poor 257th in 2-point defense while Michigan State is above average at 53.6% (national average 51.7%).
And let us not forget the expected dominance by Spartans here in second chances. While Michigan State is in the Top 5 on the glass on both ends, UCLA is 148th in offensive rebounding percentage and a worse 235th in defensive rebounding!
The combination of that big second-chance edge with the ability to dominate inside offensively and at least limit the great UCLA 3-point shooting defensively has us betting on Michigan State, expecting a safe double-digit win in the Breslin Center.
THE PICK
Michigan State -8.5 -108 at Heritage
We are 43-35-2 across All Sports with our write-ups after officially pushing our NCAA Basketball play with Belmont -5 Thursday, although those who waited won with the game closing -4. We now have a play on UCLA vs. Michigan State Tuesday on Peacock.
UCLA Bruins vs. Michigan State Spartans
Tuesday, February 17th – 8:30pm ET
The very first thing we do in our handicapping process before digging deeper into games is compare the posted lines to the line of our model. Well, we see a nice difference Tuesday where our modeled line of Michigan State -10.8 against UCLA is over two points higher than the posted spread. We are backing the Spartans as home favorites in East Lansing.
Sparty 7th in Defensive Efficiency
Michigan State is 20-5 overall and 10-4 inside the Big Ten, leaving them ranked 13th overall on Kenpom, two spots higher than their 15th ranking on the AP Poll. Perhaps this line is being compressed a bit with the Spartans losing three of their last four games. However, two of those losses were on the road and the home loss was to Kenpom #1 Michigan. In fact, Sparty is 12-2 at home with the two losses coming to the Top 2 Kenpom teams, with the other one to #2 Duke!
The Spartans are a commendable 43rd in offensive efficiency, but their strength has been defense where they are seventh in efficiency. Perhaps most critically for this game, they are a fantastic rebounding team on both ends, ranking fifth in offensive rebounding percentage and an even better second defensively. That makes this a dream matchup against a UCLA team that is terrible on the boards on both ends.
Plus, the recent skid makes this a bigger game for Michigan State than it may have seemed a couple of weeks ago, so we are looking for a maximum effort.
Bruins Rely Heavily on 3s
UCLA enters at 17-8 overall and 9-5 in conference following a 30-point loss at Michigan on Saturday. Yes, the Wolverines can dismantle any team right now, but the fact remains that the Bruins are ranked noticeably lower than Michigan State at #42 overall, and the Bruins have been relatively generous defensively ranking 103rd in eFG% allowed.
When UCLA is successful, it is mainly due to sharp 3-point shooting where they rank 17th in the land at 38.1% (national average 33.9%). However, they will face some resistance here from a Michigan State team allowing a 3-point success rate of only 31.4%. Conversely, it is the Spartans that should dominate closer to the basket, where UCLA is a poor 257th in 2-point defense while Michigan State is above average at 53.6% (national average 51.7%).
And let us not forget the expected dominance by Spartans here in second chances. While Michigan State is in the Top 5 on the glass on both ends, UCLA is 148th in offensive rebounding percentage and a worse 235th in defensive rebounding!
The combination of that big second-chance edge with the ability to dominate inside offensively and at least limit the great UCLA 3-point shooting defensively has us betting on Michigan State, expecting a safe double-digit win in the Breslin Center.
THE PICK
Michigan State -8.5 -108 at Heritage
