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NCAA Basketball Pick for Tuesday: Lack of Scoring in LA This Afternoon
We are 31-25 across All Sports with our write-ups after a 1-1 College Football bowl split on Friday. We return on Tuesday with an NCAA Basketball matinee play in the UC Riverside vs. UCLA matchup at 4:00pm ET on Big Ten Network.
UC Riverside Highlanders vs. UCLA Bruins
Tuesday, December 23rd - 4:00pm ET
We feel that this posted total is a bit high at Pauley Pavillion on Tuesday afternoon, which has us backing the Under when UC Riverside visits UCLA.
Sloppy Ball Handling Expected
Now, UCLA can score against weaker defenses, so the key to this Under selection is the UC Riverside offense being held in check, and that is exactly what we foresee happening. The Highlanders come in with a losing record of 6-7 while averaging 74.4 points per game, but that scoring average deserves a dissection.
You see, UCR has posted some high scores in the 80s against some poor Division I defenses, and they got into the 90s in their two wins against sub-division schools. However, they have faced only three teams so far ranked in the Top 100 in defensive efficiency, and they averaged only 60.3 points in those three games including scoring 60 and 53 points respectively in two games against the Top 60. The significance there is that UCLA is 51st in defensive efficiency.
Furthermore, the Highlanders are extremely sloppy with the basketball, ranking 317th in offensive turnover percentage. And that gets magnified in this spot with UCLA a good 41st in turnovers forced. Add not too many second chances expected with Riverside 315th in offensive rebounding percentage, and they may have a hard time exceeding 60 points in this game.
Bruins Play at Slow Pace
Meanwhile, we totally get that UCLA is 9-3 and ranked 32nd overall on Kenpom, with two losses coming to teams in the Kenpom Top 4 (Arizona, Gonzaga) and the third one coming to #57 California. But to put this total in perspective, if we are correct about the Highlanders scoring around 60 points here, that would mean the Bruins would need to reach or exceed 90 points for this game to go Over.
While we concede that 90 points is possible given this class drop, we are willing to bet against it happening. For starters, the Bruins are only averaging 74.9 points per game themselves. And while part of the reason for that is facing some great defenses, the other part is playing with a plodding pace under coach Mick Cronin. UCLA ranks 325th nationally in Tempo Rating and 212th in average possession rating.
Furthermore, the Bruins may also be looking ahead to their Big Ten opener against Iowa, giving no incentive to run up the score here.
Given UCLA’s very slow pace of play and UC Riverside’s struggles against Top 100 defenses, we are betting on the Under at this seemingly inflated number.
THE PICK
Under 151.5 -108 at Heritage
We already have one more play posted besides this one and we could have more plays later, so make sure to keep checking the NCAAB Picks thread for additions.
We are 31-25 across All Sports with our write-ups after a 1-1 College Football bowl split on Friday. We return on Tuesday with an NCAA Basketball matinee play in the UC Riverside vs. UCLA matchup at 4:00pm ET on Big Ten Network.
UC Riverside Highlanders vs. UCLA Bruins
Tuesday, December 23rd - 4:00pm ET
We feel that this posted total is a bit high at Pauley Pavillion on Tuesday afternoon, which has us backing the Under when UC Riverside visits UCLA.
Sloppy Ball Handling Expected
Now, UCLA can score against weaker defenses, so the key to this Under selection is the UC Riverside offense being held in check, and that is exactly what we foresee happening. The Highlanders come in with a losing record of 6-7 while averaging 74.4 points per game, but that scoring average deserves a dissection.
You see, UCR has posted some high scores in the 80s against some poor Division I defenses, and they got into the 90s in their two wins against sub-division schools. However, they have faced only three teams so far ranked in the Top 100 in defensive efficiency, and they averaged only 60.3 points in those three games including scoring 60 and 53 points respectively in two games against the Top 60. The significance there is that UCLA is 51st in defensive efficiency.
Furthermore, the Highlanders are extremely sloppy with the basketball, ranking 317th in offensive turnover percentage. And that gets magnified in this spot with UCLA a good 41st in turnovers forced. Add not too many second chances expected with Riverside 315th in offensive rebounding percentage, and they may have a hard time exceeding 60 points in this game.
Bruins Play at Slow Pace
Meanwhile, we totally get that UCLA is 9-3 and ranked 32nd overall on Kenpom, with two losses coming to teams in the Kenpom Top 4 (Arizona, Gonzaga) and the third one coming to #57 California. But to put this total in perspective, if we are correct about the Highlanders scoring around 60 points here, that would mean the Bruins would need to reach or exceed 90 points for this game to go Over.
While we concede that 90 points is possible given this class drop, we are willing to bet against it happening. For starters, the Bruins are only averaging 74.9 points per game themselves. And while part of the reason for that is facing some great defenses, the other part is playing with a plodding pace under coach Mick Cronin. UCLA ranks 325th nationally in Tempo Rating and 212th in average possession rating.
Furthermore, the Bruins may also be looking ahead to their Big Ten opener against Iowa, giving no incentive to run up the score here.
Given UCLA’s very slow pace of play and UC Riverside’s struggles against Top 100 defenses, we are betting on the Under at this seemingly inflated number.
THE PICK
Under 151.5 -108 at Heritage
We already have one more play posted besides this one and we could have more plays later, so make sure to keep checking the NCAAB Picks thread for additions.
