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NCAA Basketball Pick for Tuesday: Spartans to Conquer Bulldogs at Home
We are now 35-28 across All Sports with our write-ups after a 1-1 College Football bowl split on Thursday. We are turning to NCAA Basketball Tuesday with a late west coast play in the Fresno State vs. San Jose State matchup.
Fresno State Bulldogs vs. San Jose State Spartans
Tuesday, January 6th – 10:00pm ET
Sometimes, the best value can be found in the weakest matchups, and we think such is the case in a Mountain West clash between two teams that are winless in conference play so far on Tuesday. We are backing San Jose State at home hosting Fresno State.
Spartans Much More Efficient Offense
Before getting into details of this specific game, consider that from a betting perspective, home court advantage has meant more in the Mountain West than in any other conference during league play over the last two full seasons plus this one. The 54.4% ATS win percentage is the best during conference play in the country during this time, and MWC home teams are off to a great start this year in conference at 10-5 ATS.
Back to this game, San Jose State is 5-9 overall and 0-3 inside the Mountain, and they enter this game on a 4-game losing streak. However, the three conference losses all came to the top half of the Mountain West in Utah State, San Diego State and New Mexico, and all four losses came to teams in the Kenpom Top 100 as the last non-conference loss was to Stanford. They are not facing such a formidable foe here with Fresno State ranked 162nd.
In fact, the Spartans’ overall schedule is ranked a commendable 41st per Kenpom, and despite that relatively tough slate, they are above average in offensive efficiency at 110.1 (national average 108.5). Now, we get that “above average” does not sound like much, but that makes San Jose seem like Duke when compared to the Fresno State offense.
They are competent from behind the 3-pount arc at 35.3% (national average 33.6%) and they should dominate in second chances here, ranking 80th in offensive rebounding percentage compared to a 203rd ranking for Fresno State.
Bulldogs Faced Weaker Schedule
The Bulldogs also have a winless 0-3 record inside the conference, and they are on a 6-game losing streak following a 6-2 start. Keep in mind however that they have not faced the same caliber of opponents as San Jose State has, losing to the likes of CS Bakersfield and CS Northridge during the current losing streak. In fact, their overall SOS ranks 120 spots lower than the Spartans’ schedule at 161st.
But even more telling is that the Fresno State schedule ranks 178th in Kenpom defensive components faced, and yet they have still been poor offensively. The Bulldogs rank 221st in offensive efficiency at 105.9, and besides their lack of second chance opportunities mentioned earlier, they are much worse than the Spartans in 3-point shooting ranking 251st at 31.9%. That would make it hard to come from behind should they get down early on the road.
So, in a game that looks close based on records alone, San Jose State has faced the much stronger schedule while being much more efficient offensively. Considering the general success of Mountain West home teams in recent years, that is enough to bet on the Spartans at a cheap home price.
THE PICK
San Jose State -1 -111 at Bet105
Remember that we already have at least one more play posted besides this one and there is always the possibility that we could add more, so make sure to keep checking the NCAAB Picks thread for additions.
We are now 35-28 across All Sports with our write-ups after a 1-1 College Football bowl split on Thursday. We are turning to NCAA Basketball Tuesday with a late west coast play in the Fresno State vs. San Jose State matchup.
Fresno State Bulldogs vs. San Jose State Spartans
Tuesday, January 6th – 10:00pm ET
Sometimes, the best value can be found in the weakest matchups, and we think such is the case in a Mountain West clash between two teams that are winless in conference play so far on Tuesday. We are backing San Jose State at home hosting Fresno State.
Spartans Much More Efficient Offense
Before getting into details of this specific game, consider that from a betting perspective, home court advantage has meant more in the Mountain West than in any other conference during league play over the last two full seasons plus this one. The 54.4% ATS win percentage is the best during conference play in the country during this time, and MWC home teams are off to a great start this year in conference at 10-5 ATS.
Back to this game, San Jose State is 5-9 overall and 0-3 inside the Mountain, and they enter this game on a 4-game losing streak. However, the three conference losses all came to the top half of the Mountain West in Utah State, San Diego State and New Mexico, and all four losses came to teams in the Kenpom Top 100 as the last non-conference loss was to Stanford. They are not facing such a formidable foe here with Fresno State ranked 162nd.
In fact, the Spartans’ overall schedule is ranked a commendable 41st per Kenpom, and despite that relatively tough slate, they are above average in offensive efficiency at 110.1 (national average 108.5). Now, we get that “above average” does not sound like much, but that makes San Jose seem like Duke when compared to the Fresno State offense.
They are competent from behind the 3-pount arc at 35.3% (national average 33.6%) and they should dominate in second chances here, ranking 80th in offensive rebounding percentage compared to a 203rd ranking for Fresno State.
Bulldogs Faced Weaker Schedule
The Bulldogs also have a winless 0-3 record inside the conference, and they are on a 6-game losing streak following a 6-2 start. Keep in mind however that they have not faced the same caliber of opponents as San Jose State has, losing to the likes of CS Bakersfield and CS Northridge during the current losing streak. In fact, their overall SOS ranks 120 spots lower than the Spartans’ schedule at 161st.
But even more telling is that the Fresno State schedule ranks 178th in Kenpom defensive components faced, and yet they have still been poor offensively. The Bulldogs rank 221st in offensive efficiency at 105.9, and besides their lack of second chance opportunities mentioned earlier, they are much worse than the Spartans in 3-point shooting ranking 251st at 31.9%. That would make it hard to come from behind should they get down early on the road.
So, in a game that looks close based on records alone, San Jose State has faced the much stronger schedule while being much more efficient offensively. Considering the general success of Mountain West home teams in recent years, that is enough to bet on the Spartans at a cheap home price.
THE PICK
San Jose State -1 -111 at Bet105
Remember that we already have at least one more play posted besides this one and there is always the possibility that we could add more, so make sure to keep checking the NCAAB Picks thread for additions.
