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NCAA Basketball Pick for Tuesday: Cyclones to Blow Past Kansas (Oh Toto)
We are 37-29 across All Sports with our write-ups after a 2-0 Bowl sweep last week. We are shifting to NCAA Basketball Tuesday with a play on the huge Iowa State vs. Kansas Big 12 matchup on ESPN.
Iowa State Cyclones vs. Kansas Jayhawks
Tuesday, January 13th – 9:00pm ET
While we concede that Allen Fieldhouse is one of the most difficult road venues in the country, we feel that Iowa State is legitimately one of the best teams in the nation. Thus, we are laying the manageable spread over Kansas in Lawrence.
Cyclones Excelling at Both Ends
Iowa State remains undefeated at 16-0 while ranked second in the AP Poll and third overall on Kenpom. All three of their conference wins have been by double digits, and while two of those were at home in Ames, the other was a 10-point win at Baylor. Most importantly, this is the most balanced Cyclones team in recent memory on both ends.
Offensively, ISU is averaging 88.0 points while ranking 12th in offensive efficiency and ninth in eFG%. They have no discernable weaknesses from any spot on the floor, ranking 37th in 2-point shooting at 58.0% and an amazing second in 3-point shooting at a blistering 40.8%. For good measure, they have gotten second chances on the rare occasions when they do miss shots, ranking 26th in offensive rebounding percentage.
But these are not your father’s Cyclones as this year’s edition plays defense too! They are sixth in the country in points allowed at 62.9 per game, a raw ranking legitimized by ranking a better second in defensive efficiency behind only Michigan. They have also been extremely adept at applying pressure, ranking third in the land in turnover percentage forced at 24.5% (national average 17.3%).
Lack of Pressure and Second Chances Fatal
Kansas is unranked in the polls, although to be fair, they are still 23rd overall in Kenpom despite having five losses (11-5). Surprisingly, the Jayhawks have played only seven home games so far this season while going 6-1, losing only to an excellent Connecticut team 61-56. At the same time though, five of those home-wins came vs. teams ranked outside of the Kenpom Top 140, and they needed overtime to beat 52nd ranked TCU in their first conference home game.
Iowa State will be the best team that Kansas has faced so far, and while it should be an electric atmosphere in Lawrence, we do not think that will be enough to overcome a couple of big matchup weaknesses here.
For starters, while Iowa State has been very good at generating second chances, Kansas has not, ranking 247th in offensive rebounding percentage. We do not see that improving with Iowa State an above average 60th in defensive rebounding percentage. Secondly and perhaps worst of all, the Jayhawks do not apply any pressure ranking 346th out of 365 Division I teams in turnover percentage forced.
Allowing a great efficient offense like Iowa State possesses to run basically unabated sound like a death sentence for Kansas despite their enormous home court advantage. That has us betting on Iowa State as modest road favorites to remain undefeated.
THE PICK
Iowa State -4 -108 at Heritage
We are 37-29 across All Sports with our write-ups after a 2-0 Bowl sweep last week. We are shifting to NCAA Basketball Tuesday with a play on the huge Iowa State vs. Kansas Big 12 matchup on ESPN.
Iowa State Cyclones vs. Kansas Jayhawks
Tuesday, January 13th – 9:00pm ET
While we concede that Allen Fieldhouse is one of the most difficult road venues in the country, we feel that Iowa State is legitimately one of the best teams in the nation. Thus, we are laying the manageable spread over Kansas in Lawrence.
Cyclones Excelling at Both Ends
Iowa State remains undefeated at 16-0 while ranked second in the AP Poll and third overall on Kenpom. All three of their conference wins have been by double digits, and while two of those were at home in Ames, the other was a 10-point win at Baylor. Most importantly, this is the most balanced Cyclones team in recent memory on both ends.
Offensively, ISU is averaging 88.0 points while ranking 12th in offensive efficiency and ninth in eFG%. They have no discernable weaknesses from any spot on the floor, ranking 37th in 2-point shooting at 58.0% and an amazing second in 3-point shooting at a blistering 40.8%. For good measure, they have gotten second chances on the rare occasions when they do miss shots, ranking 26th in offensive rebounding percentage.
But these are not your father’s Cyclones as this year’s edition plays defense too! They are sixth in the country in points allowed at 62.9 per game, a raw ranking legitimized by ranking a better second in defensive efficiency behind only Michigan. They have also been extremely adept at applying pressure, ranking third in the land in turnover percentage forced at 24.5% (national average 17.3%).
Lack of Pressure and Second Chances Fatal
Kansas is unranked in the polls, although to be fair, they are still 23rd overall in Kenpom despite having five losses (11-5). Surprisingly, the Jayhawks have played only seven home games so far this season while going 6-1, losing only to an excellent Connecticut team 61-56. At the same time though, five of those home-wins came vs. teams ranked outside of the Kenpom Top 140, and they needed overtime to beat 52nd ranked TCU in their first conference home game.
Iowa State will be the best team that Kansas has faced so far, and while it should be an electric atmosphere in Lawrence, we do not think that will be enough to overcome a couple of big matchup weaknesses here.
For starters, while Iowa State has been very good at generating second chances, Kansas has not, ranking 247th in offensive rebounding percentage. We do not see that improving with Iowa State an above average 60th in defensive rebounding percentage. Secondly and perhaps worst of all, the Jayhawks do not apply any pressure ranking 346th out of 365 Division I teams in turnover percentage forced.
Allowing a great efficient offense like Iowa State possesses to run basically unabated sound like a death sentence for Kansas despite their enormous home court advantage. That has us betting on Iowa State as modest road favorites to remain undefeated.
THE PICK
Iowa State -4 -108 at Heritage
