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NCAA Basketball Pick for Thursday: Bulls to Charge Past Tigers on ESPN2
We fell to 44-36-2 across All Sports with our write-ups after our NCAA Basketball loser Wednesday. We are looking to bounce back with a selection in the AAC Thursday on Memphis at South Florida on ESPN2.
Memphis Tigers vs. South Florida Bulls
Thursday, February 19th – 7:00pm ET
There are literally no power-conference teams in action on Thursday, but that does not mean that there is no value to be found elsewhere. In fact, we foresee somewhat of a blowout in the AAC, where we are supporting South Florida to win big at home hosting Memphis on ESPN2.
Bulls to Get Lots of Second Chances
South Florida comes in with an 18-8 record while sitting atop the American Conference at 10-3. Not surprisingly, the Bulls are the highest ranked AAC team on Kenpom at 58th overall, and they are solidly better than average in both offensive efficiency at 116.7 and defensive efficiency at 103.7 (national average 108.8).
USF is second in the conference during league play in offensive efficiency and third in eFG%, but the biggest strength of this team is offensive rebounding. In fact, they are 12th nationally in offensive rebounding percentage at a whopping 37.6% (national average 30.7%), and they should dominate in second chances here against a Memphis team that struggles on the defensive glass, ranking 330th in defensive rebounding percentage.
Considering that the Bulls are already a good shooting team to begin with, the combination of all those second chances and their preferred fast pace while ranking 18th in Tempo Rating, it would not surprise is at all if South Florida gets into the 80s in this game.
Tigers Can’t Shoot and Sloppy with Ball
Memphis has a losing 12-13 mark overall, and while they do have a winning 7-5 record inside the American, none of those conference wins came over a team currently ranked higher than 119th on Kenpom. That leaves the Tigers just barely in the Kenpom Top 100 themselves at 99th overall, 41 spots below South Florida.
Moreover, if we are correct about the Bulls breaking the 80s, we simply would not see a way for Memphis to stay within single digits here. That is because the Tigers have been a miserable shooting team this season from all points of the floor, ranking 281st in eFG%, 285th in 3-point shooting and 261st in 2-point shooting.
And besides not shooting well, Memphis has also wasted possessions by being sloppy with the basketball, ranking 336th nationally in turnover percentage at 19.6% (national average 16.9%) and dead last in the conference during league play at 20.0%.
The one saving grace for Memphis has been leading the AAC in defensive efficiency, but as mentioned, they have beaten up the lesser teams in the conference. In their five AAC losses against the better teams, they have allowed exactly 80.0 points per game. Thus, we are betting on South Florida to score enough points to win this game by double digits.
THE PICK
South Florida -8.5 -105 at Bet105
We fell to 44-36-2 across All Sports with our write-ups after our NCAA Basketball loser Wednesday. We are looking to bounce back with a selection in the AAC Thursday on Memphis at South Florida on ESPN2.
Memphis Tigers vs. South Florida Bulls
Thursday, February 19th – 7:00pm ET
There are literally no power-conference teams in action on Thursday, but that does not mean that there is no value to be found elsewhere. In fact, we foresee somewhat of a blowout in the AAC, where we are supporting South Florida to win big at home hosting Memphis on ESPN2.
Bulls to Get Lots of Second Chances
South Florida comes in with an 18-8 record while sitting atop the American Conference at 10-3. Not surprisingly, the Bulls are the highest ranked AAC team on Kenpom at 58th overall, and they are solidly better than average in both offensive efficiency at 116.7 and defensive efficiency at 103.7 (national average 108.8).
USF is second in the conference during league play in offensive efficiency and third in eFG%, but the biggest strength of this team is offensive rebounding. In fact, they are 12th nationally in offensive rebounding percentage at a whopping 37.6% (national average 30.7%), and they should dominate in second chances here against a Memphis team that struggles on the defensive glass, ranking 330th in defensive rebounding percentage.
Considering that the Bulls are already a good shooting team to begin with, the combination of all those second chances and their preferred fast pace while ranking 18th in Tempo Rating, it would not surprise is at all if South Florida gets into the 80s in this game.
Tigers Can’t Shoot and Sloppy with Ball
Memphis has a losing 12-13 mark overall, and while they do have a winning 7-5 record inside the American, none of those conference wins came over a team currently ranked higher than 119th on Kenpom. That leaves the Tigers just barely in the Kenpom Top 100 themselves at 99th overall, 41 spots below South Florida.
Moreover, if we are correct about the Bulls breaking the 80s, we simply would not see a way for Memphis to stay within single digits here. That is because the Tigers have been a miserable shooting team this season from all points of the floor, ranking 281st in eFG%, 285th in 3-point shooting and 261st in 2-point shooting.
And besides not shooting well, Memphis has also wasted possessions by being sloppy with the basketball, ranking 336th nationally in turnover percentage at 19.6% (national average 16.9%) and dead last in the conference during league play at 20.0%.
The one saving grace for Memphis has been leading the AAC in defensive efficiency, but as mentioned, they have beaten up the lesser teams in the conference. In their five AAC losses against the better teams, they have allowed exactly 80.0 points per game. Thus, we are betting on South Florida to score enough points to win this game by double digits.
THE PICK
South Florida -8.5 -105 at Bet105
