LT Profits
- Joined
- Feb 27, 2023
- Messages
- 12,559
NCAA Basketball Pick for Thursday: Not Too Many Tallies in Towson
We are 41-32-1 across All Sports with our write-ups after an NCAA Basketball push Wednesday. We are betting on a nationally televised CAA matchup Thursday in NC Wilmington vs. Towson on CBS Sports Network.
NC Wilmington Seahawks vs. Towson Tigers
Thursday, January 29th – 9:00pm ET
With a typical Thursday card that has very few major-conference matchups, we are delving into the CAA tonight, but at least our game is on national TV. We are going Under the total when NC Wilmington pays a visit to Towson at 9:00 ET on CBS Sports Network.
Terrible Offensive Efficiency for Towson
Towson has managed to post a winning record of 12-10 overall despite being extremely offensively challenged, although they have a losing 4-5 mark inside the Coastal Athletic Association. They are being kept somewhat afloat by a Top 100 defense in efficiency (83rd), which when combined with a terrible offense has unsurprisingly led to a 13-7 record for the Under in their lined games.
The Tigers are ranked 267th in offensive efficiency at 104.3 (national average 109.4), and that is despite generating a lot of second chances while ranking a nice 21st in offensive rebounding percentage. That should give you an idea of just how atrocious the Towson shooting has been, as they are 349th out of 365 Division I teams in eFG% at a measly 45.2%.
Furthermore, they are terrible in every phase, ranking 364th (second to last) nationally in 3-point shooting at 26.8%, 294th in 2-point shooting and even 283rd in free-throw shooting! And as poor as the efficiency is overall, it has been even worse during CAA play at 101.4.
Poor Shooting for Wilmington Too
NC Wilmington leads the CAA at 7-1 while being 18-3 overall, although that record loses some luster when considering an SOS ranked 340th overall, with the early non-conference portion ranking 359th. The fact that the SOS has improved during CAA play while playing in the 15th ranked conference in the country per Kenpom is further proof of their cupcake schedule, and one of their three losses was a terrible one at home to 272nd ranked Howard.
Now, the Seahawks grade out above average in offensive efficiency, ranking 125th at 112.1. But that efficiency is boosted by ranking 35th in offensive rebounding percentage and being better than average in offensive turnover rate at 15.6% (average 17.1%). But the fact of the matter is that they are also a bad shooting team.
Granted, they are not as bad as Towson offensively, but they are bad nonetheless while ranking 211th in eFG%, 235th in 2-point shooting and 242nd in foul shooting. Yes, they are a semi-commendable 34.1% in 3-point shooting, but that figure has dropped to 33.1% inside the CAA to rank 11th in the conference. And remember the Seahawks are facing a Towson defense that is easily the best unit for either of these teams.
Adding this all up, we simply do not see this game getting out of the 120s, and it may even be in the low-to-mid 120s at that. We are betting on the Under with this posted total being in the mid-130s.
THE PICK
Under 134.5 -108 at Heritage
We are 41-32-1 across All Sports with our write-ups after an NCAA Basketball push Wednesday. We are betting on a nationally televised CAA matchup Thursday in NC Wilmington vs. Towson on CBS Sports Network.
NC Wilmington Seahawks vs. Towson Tigers
Thursday, January 29th – 9:00pm ET
With a typical Thursday card that has very few major-conference matchups, we are delving into the CAA tonight, but at least our game is on national TV. We are going Under the total when NC Wilmington pays a visit to Towson at 9:00 ET on CBS Sports Network.
Terrible Offensive Efficiency for Towson
Towson has managed to post a winning record of 12-10 overall despite being extremely offensively challenged, although they have a losing 4-5 mark inside the Coastal Athletic Association. They are being kept somewhat afloat by a Top 100 defense in efficiency (83rd), which when combined with a terrible offense has unsurprisingly led to a 13-7 record for the Under in their lined games.
The Tigers are ranked 267th in offensive efficiency at 104.3 (national average 109.4), and that is despite generating a lot of second chances while ranking a nice 21st in offensive rebounding percentage. That should give you an idea of just how atrocious the Towson shooting has been, as they are 349th out of 365 Division I teams in eFG% at a measly 45.2%.
Furthermore, they are terrible in every phase, ranking 364th (second to last) nationally in 3-point shooting at 26.8%, 294th in 2-point shooting and even 283rd in free-throw shooting! And as poor as the efficiency is overall, it has been even worse during CAA play at 101.4.
Poor Shooting for Wilmington Too
NC Wilmington leads the CAA at 7-1 while being 18-3 overall, although that record loses some luster when considering an SOS ranked 340th overall, with the early non-conference portion ranking 359th. The fact that the SOS has improved during CAA play while playing in the 15th ranked conference in the country per Kenpom is further proof of their cupcake schedule, and one of their three losses was a terrible one at home to 272nd ranked Howard.
Now, the Seahawks grade out above average in offensive efficiency, ranking 125th at 112.1. But that efficiency is boosted by ranking 35th in offensive rebounding percentage and being better than average in offensive turnover rate at 15.6% (average 17.1%). But the fact of the matter is that they are also a bad shooting team.
Granted, they are not as bad as Towson offensively, but they are bad nonetheless while ranking 211th in eFG%, 235th in 2-point shooting and 242nd in foul shooting. Yes, they are a semi-commendable 34.1% in 3-point shooting, but that figure has dropped to 33.1% inside the CAA to rank 11th in the conference. And remember the Seahawks are facing a Towson defense that is easily the best unit for either of these teams.
Adding this all up, we simply do not see this game getting out of the 120s, and it may even be in the low-to-mid 120s at that. We are betting on the Under with this posted total being in the mid-130s.
THE PICK
Under 134.5 -108 at Heritage
