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NCAA Basketball Pick for Thursday: Redhawks to Fly Past Lions on ESPNU
We improved to 38-30 across All Sports with our write-ups after winning our NCAA Basketball play Wednesday. We now have another NCAAB selection for Thursday in Lindenwood vs. SE Missouri State on ESPNU at 9:00 ET.
Lindenwood Lions vs. SE Missouri Redhawks
Thursday, January 15th – 9:00pm ET
If you are looking for an excuse to watch an Ohio Valley Conference matchup on ESPNU Thursday night, well, here you go! We expect SE Missouri State to have an easier time at home with Lindenwood than this line suggests, so we are giving the points with the Redhawks.
SEMO with Best eFG% in Conference
SE Missouri State comes in with a 9-8 record, but keep in mind that they faced a good non-conference SOS rated 62nd per Kenpom, a slate that included a close 5-point loss on the road at Missouri. That schedule prepped the Redhawks well for league play as they are 4-2 inside the Ohio Valley. Moreover, they lead the conference in eFG% during league play at 54.0%.
Missouri State could potentially dominate inside here as they are third inside the conference in 2-point shooting at 54.3% (national average 51.7%) while Lindenwood is 10th in 2-pount defense. Furthermore, the Lions cannot really sag inside either as the Redhawks are also third in 3-point shooting at 35.7% (national average 33.7%).
For good measure, SEMO is second inside the conference in offensive turnover percentage while Lindy is eighth in turnover percentage forced, so the Redhawks should be able to create great looks.
Lindenwood Faced Weaker Schedule
Yes, Lindenwood has the better overall record here at 10-7 and these teams are tied in the conference standings at 4-2. However, the Lions faced an easier non-conference schedule ranked 106th and, while Missouri State threw a scare into Missouri, Lindenwood lost by 38 and 20 points respectively vs. the two Kenpom Top 100 teams they faced.
And despite the easier schedule and winning record, Lindenwood ranks a dismal 282nd overall in offensive efficiency and 295th in eFG%. The Lions are also turnover prone ranking 235th and that should continue with SEMO an above average 60th in turnover percentage forced at 19.5% (national average 17.3%).
Also, Lindenwood is not equipped to come from behind should the Redhawks build a lead, as the Lions are 355th out of 365 Division I teams in 3-point shooting at a mere 27.6%.
So, while Lindenwood currently has the better record, we see advantages for SE Missouri State here on both ends of the court. Bet on the Redhawks as home favorites on ESPNU.
THE PICK
SE Missouri State -6.5 -108 at Heritage
We improved to 38-30 across All Sports with our write-ups after winning our NCAA Basketball play Wednesday. We now have another NCAAB selection for Thursday in Lindenwood vs. SE Missouri State on ESPNU at 9:00 ET.
Lindenwood Lions vs. SE Missouri Redhawks
Thursday, January 15th – 9:00pm ET
If you are looking for an excuse to watch an Ohio Valley Conference matchup on ESPNU Thursday night, well, here you go! We expect SE Missouri State to have an easier time at home with Lindenwood than this line suggests, so we are giving the points with the Redhawks.
SEMO with Best eFG% in Conference
SE Missouri State comes in with a 9-8 record, but keep in mind that they faced a good non-conference SOS rated 62nd per Kenpom, a slate that included a close 5-point loss on the road at Missouri. That schedule prepped the Redhawks well for league play as they are 4-2 inside the Ohio Valley. Moreover, they lead the conference in eFG% during league play at 54.0%.
Missouri State could potentially dominate inside here as they are third inside the conference in 2-point shooting at 54.3% (national average 51.7%) while Lindenwood is 10th in 2-pount defense. Furthermore, the Lions cannot really sag inside either as the Redhawks are also third in 3-point shooting at 35.7% (national average 33.7%).
For good measure, SEMO is second inside the conference in offensive turnover percentage while Lindy is eighth in turnover percentage forced, so the Redhawks should be able to create great looks.
Lindenwood Faced Weaker Schedule
Yes, Lindenwood has the better overall record here at 10-7 and these teams are tied in the conference standings at 4-2. However, the Lions faced an easier non-conference schedule ranked 106th and, while Missouri State threw a scare into Missouri, Lindenwood lost by 38 and 20 points respectively vs. the two Kenpom Top 100 teams they faced.
And despite the easier schedule and winning record, Lindenwood ranks a dismal 282nd overall in offensive efficiency and 295th in eFG%. The Lions are also turnover prone ranking 235th and that should continue with SEMO an above average 60th in turnover percentage forced at 19.5% (national average 17.3%).
Also, Lindenwood is not equipped to come from behind should the Redhawks build a lead, as the Lions are 355th out of 365 Division I teams in 3-point shooting at a mere 27.6%.
So, while Lindenwood currently has the better record, we see advantages for SE Missouri State here on both ends of the court. Bet on the Redhawks as home favorites on ESPNU.
THE PICK
SE Missouri State -6.5 -108 at Heritage
