NCAAB Friday 1/12

[djefferis]

Ok - enough of a vacation from gambling this week - time to post some picks.

Cleveland State +3.5
Iowa -4.5
Indiana -4
Dayton +1.5

Thoughts to follow - but looking like my 4 plays today in college hoops.

 

[BMR Genie]

Thank you for sharing your picks, DJ, and good luck today!

I like the odds on the first game Cleveland State.

 

[djefferis]

Cleveland State +3.5 over Milwaukee

Both teams back in action after 5 and 6 days off respectively. Cleveland State coming off an OT win over N Kentucky and Milwaukee over a blowout win of hapless Detroit.

Milwaukee has simply not beaten anyone besides the lower tier teams handily - and Cleveland State blowing a 9 point lead halfway through the 2nd half before recovering - only to be forced to OT with a 3 at end end of regulation by N Ky.

I don’t expect the same sort of letdown here by the Vikes. I see this as a dead even game - so getting 3.5 is value for CS backers. Take the points in this one and expect a total of under the 158.5.

 

[LT Profits]

Indiana for me too, although I missed the -4 and have -4.5

 

[djefferis]

Iowa -4

2 Big Ten battles today and I like the faves in both.

Iowa has been largely inconsistent this season - but coming off a quality win vs a good Rutgers team. Nebraska on the other hand has overachieved - beating Michigan State, Indiana and then #1 Purdue most recently. Of course all those wins vs Big 10 heavyweights happened at home.

Again - Nebraska is riding a high and Iowa is struggling for position in the toughest conference right now. With little room for error - look for Iowa to escape with a cover here.

 

[djefferis]

Indiana -4 over Minnesota

And in the 2nd Big 10 battle - conference #3 Minnesota visits Indiana. Minnesota is riding a 7 game streak into the matchup - with 4 of those being non conference wins vs overmatched opposition.

Indiana on the other hand has been inconsistent- losing Big 10 matchups on the road to Nebraska and Rutgers. But winning on the road at Michigan and home vs Maryland. The Hoosiers also showed alot in their prime time matchup vs Kansas - losing a heartbreaker.

Give me the Hoosiers in this spot - again struggling to break out of the log jam of teams in the middle of the conference and ahead of a big matchup vs Purdue. Indiana needs this one at home more to avoid falling too far behind and they know it.

 

[jjgold]

I might take these picks in a parlay but ML

 

[djefferis]

Finally - Dayton Flyers +1.5 over Duquesne

To me it’s almost too simple - you’re giving me the better team with only 2 losses (one to Houston and the other to a decent Northwestern team in a competitive matchup) AND A POINT.

There’s value here - yes Duquesne is 0-2 in A10 play and needs to beat conference leader Dayton to get back on track - but I just don’t see it happening in the ‘burg tonight. The Dukes are riding a 2 game losing streak and I see it becoming 3 tonight - and hoping they can stop this from becoming a runaway train against Richmond next Tuesday at home to avoid a disastrous 0-4 start.

 

[BMR Genie]

Great write-ups as well. Thank you, DJ!

 

[djefferis]

Cle State up 12 with 1:21 left in 1st half - now -7.5 Cle State in game wagering.

Tempting to jump on a little Milwaukee 2nd half at this point - still like the original play - but opportunity to lock in a profit here and potentially make more money with Milwaukee comeback in the 2nd half.

 

[LT Profits]

Cle State up 12 with 1:21 left in 1st half - now -7.5 Cle State in game wagering.

Tempting to jump on a little Milwaukee 2nd half at this point - still like the original play - but opportunity to lock in a profit here and potentially make more money with Milwaukee comeback in the 2nd half.

I understand the temptation, but should only do it if you think Milw +7.5 is +EV on its own. Personally I am type to sit on massive +EV postion without giving money back.

 

[djefferis]

I’m letting it ride as is.

Might regret it - but still early with 3 more plays to go tonight.

 

[djefferis]

Milwaukee on 14-0 run to start 2nd half !

 

[LT Profits]

Milwaukee on 14-0 run to start 2nd half !

Well-----this sucks. Milwaukee up 5

 

[LT Profits]

Regardless of result, I still think sitting was right call.

 

[KVB]

I understand the temptation, but should only do it if you think Milw +7.5 is +EV on its own. Personally I am type to sit on massive +EV postion without giving money back.

I agree.

That said, I have developed some strategies where I seperate the bankroll and take more of an EV position with the intent to sell back on another +EV position (independant of the first as information has changed with the game starting).

It's an extra, "steady", strategy that still deals with +EV.

But in general since EV can be hard to come by, when you get it, don't give it back.

There will be more games, with more EV, as the rotation continues day after day.

 

[djefferis]

And lose by 8.

What a 2nd half collapse Vikes.

 

[LT Profits]

2-1 heading into Iowa

 

[JDS]

Nice work in here Jeffery.

 

[djefferis]

So 3-1 yesterday - +1.90

We also learned Cleveland State is not to be trusted second half - 2nd game in a row holding a comfortable lead and blowing it. These boys go up 10 and just quit for some reason - this time though they couldn’t recover to save a win.

Looking at the card today and will likely have a game or 2 to share. GL everyone.