NCAA Plays 1/20

[djefferis]

Couple of Big 10 plays to start

Ohio State -9.5 (vs Penn State)
Purdue -6 (@ Iowa)

OSU comes into this on a 3 game losing streak and seeking to salvage any tourney hopes it holds - short of winning the Big 10. It starts here - at home vs an inferior Penn State squad and they will be looking for style points in this showing.

OSU 8-2 at home - Penn State 0-3 on the road. OSU has struggled of late vs Michigan, Indiana and Wisconsin (with Indiana representing one of their 2 home losses - the other being Texas A&M early in the season) and 2nd half collapses caused both losses. Look for OSU to learn from those experiences and not let off the gas come the 2nd half in this one to cover.

 

[djefferis]

Purdue -6 @ Iowa

Purdue takes on a pretty good Iowa team on the road - and if recent form has taught us anything - home dogs have been a profitable play.

This Iowa team though struggles against quality teams - home or away. Already blown out by Purdue on the road - Iowa has also lost home games to Wisconsin and Oklahoma. Home wins at Rutgers and Nebraska are nice - but this Purdue team is a far superior foe.

 

[djefferis]

Adding Tennessee-5.5 (vs Alabama)
North Carolina -6.5 (@ Boston College)

Tennessee -5.5 (vs Alabama) 2 quality SEC teams - and at first glance ‘Bama looked like a qualified upset candidate - both team have a shared recent quality opponent with only 1 (Alabama) walking away from Starksville and MS State with a W.

But looking at the matchup between these 2 teams - you see 2 different styles - Alabama pure offense and Tennessee who can play both ends of the court. Ultimately - that will be the difference here I think. Tennessee being able to get some stops and score gives them a decided edge. Having home court advantage as well is a huge advantage here and ‘Bama is enjoying a win streak against lesser teams after a 3 game skid vs top flight opposition in December. Play here is the Vols.

 

[djefferis]

North Carolina -6.5 (@ Boston College)

Again - a good BC team at home vs a highly ranked opponent - recent results say play the dog. But again - historically - the upset rate is much lower than late and the number reflects a knee jerk reaction by bettors. This should be closer to -8.5-9 - not 6.5.

It took a second half surge by BC to beat Notre Dame last time out - and this Tarheel team is not going to fold like the Irish. They will take the early lead and not choke. With only 3 losses (all to highly ranked opposition) - Carolina is rightfully favored here - at -290 I’m tempted to recommend moneyline here first - but to keep it simple I’m staying with the spread only. There is value here and might consider mixing in NC moneyline with your plays in a parlay or 2 as well.

 

[djefferis]

And just like that 4-0

YTD 10-6 +3.4