NBA is haywire now

[jjgold]

It doesn’t matter if you’re home or away there’s not much edge on that home court anymore

 

[Archie]

hard to cap this erratic youth mvmt

 

[KVB]

It doesn’t matter if you’re home or away there’s not much edge on that home court anymore

Too soon, Gold, too soon.

There are several factors that we can use to still establish a home court difference (advantage or disadvantage) even if the actual home team win percentage has been dropping over the years.

For now though, it's too soon this season. Metrics are still on track for some of those home field factors to come into play, as they have been the past seasons, but we are only 20 or so games in, we need more games for this season to gel and show what past seasons have shown.

So, "metrics are still on track" can be pretty vague so let me toss out one example.

The team that hits more 3 pointers, no matter where they play, is winning about 2/3 the time and this is, by and large, holding true over the last 10 years or so.

Do teams hit more 3 pointers at home than on the road? That's a good homework question. But I will say this, while the team hitting more 3 pointers is more likely to win, it's even more so if they are the home team. Recently history shows the home team hitting better than 2/3 (more like 70%) on the moneyline will the road team hitting more 3s is more like 3/5s or 60% on the moneyline.

Which brings us to this season. Only 20 or so games in, we are seeing, as predicted, the team that scores more treys wins more often.

But the home road splits haven't been as prevalent on this metric as the past. As @flyingillini will tell you, this very well could be due to variance and perhaps even moreso due to the earlier season variance whereby the home and road teams hitting more 3s than their opponents were basically running at an equal clip of win percentage.

We expect those win percentage clips to fall more in line with past seasons so we expect the win percentage of home teams hitting more 3 pointers than their opponents to diverge from the win percentage of road teams hitting more 3 pointers than their opponents. As these two diverge, we expect to see an overall home court advantage across this metric and expect to see it more pronounced in those teams that are more likely to hit more 3 pointers than their opponents.

Disclaimer:

The above is a synopsis, or part of an abstract, of a recent NBA home court advantage study involving several different metrics from my office and the forecast we conclude based on the current situation. While this study was done a couple weeks ago, the opinion that it is too soon to throw out home court advantage and things should diverge and fall in line with recent history is still held in my office.

 

[Wagerallsports]

Impossible to cap anymore

NBA players have too much pride as a whole these days & scared to be shown up by one another

So the easy out is to play no defense & just try to outscore one another

 

[KVB]

It doesn’t matter if you’re home or away there’s not much edge on that home court anymore

There are 30 NBA teams, Gold, 15 in each conference.

Eastern Conference:
6 teams with a positive home game winning percentage, 4 teams with a 50-50 record at home
3 teams with positive road game winning percentage, 2 teams are 50-50 on the road.

Western Conference:
12 teams with a winning record at home
4 teams with a winning record on the road, 4 teams are 50-50 on the road.

So, while 18 of 30 NBA teams have winning home record, not too much over half, you can see the the Western Conference has the much bigger disparity.

In the East, only Cleveland and Boston have winning records both home and on the road.

In the West, OKC, Houston, GS, and Denver have winning records home and away.

 

[Wagerallsports]

I’ve always wanted an NBA team in Tampa

Never gonna happen thought thanks to the sorry azz Rays fans or lack of who have never shown up & gives the perception that the area can’t support another team

 

[MinnesotaFats]

Product is absolutely trash.

Watched Wolves yesterday, in a game where they took a combined 70 3 pointers the score was 93 92. O/U was 214

Stay away from this shit- bet college or NBA in playoffs. To bet regular season is just throwing darts.

If you absolutely need it- wait for a team to get down 20 then hammer them live. Pays out most of the time.

 

[flyingillini]

Too soon, Gold, too soon.

There are several factors that we can use to still establish a home court difference (advantage or disadvantage) even if the actual home team win percentage has been dropping over the years.

For now though, it's too soon this season. Metrics are still on track for some of those home field factors to come into play, as they have been the past seasons, but we are only 20 or so games in, we need more games for this season to gel and show what past seasons have shown.

So, "metrics are still on track" can be pretty vague so let me toss out one example.

The team that hits more 3 pointers, no matter where they play, is winning about 2/3 the time and this is, by and large, holding true over the last 10 years or so.

Do teams hit more 3 pointers at home than on the road? That's a good homework question. But I will say this, while the team hitting more 3 pointers is more likely to win, it's even more so if they are the home team. Recently history shows the home team hitting better than 2/3 (more like 70%) on the moneyline will the road team hitting more 3s is more like 3/5s or 60% on the moneyline.

Which brings us to this season. Only 20 or so games in, we are seeing, as predicted, the team that scores more treys wins more often.

But the home road splits haven't been as prevalent on this metric as the past. As @flyingillini will tell you, this very well could be due to variance and perhaps even moreso due to the earlier season variance whereby the home and road teams hitting more 3s than their opponents were basically running at an equal clip of win percentage.

We expect those win percentage clips to fall more in line with past seasons so we expect the win percentage of home teams hitting more 3 pointers than their opponents to diverge from the win percentage of road teams hitting more 3 pointers than their opponents. As these two diverge, we expect to see an overall home court advantage across this metric and expect to see it more pronounced in those teams that are more likely to hit more 3 pointers than their opponents.

Disclaimer:

The above is a synopsis, or part of an abstract, of a recent NBA home court advantage study involving several different metrics from my office and the forecast we conclude based on the current situation. While this study was done a couple weeks ago, the opinion that it is too soon to throw out home court advantage and things should diverge and fall in line with recent history is still held in my office.

Actually KVBster, it is not "could be due to variance " it is 100% the reason, anyone with half a brain and that can understand how to factor in variance in this situation knows what is happening. It is 100% variance, no queston about it.

 

[KingKolzig]

Celts -260 to win it all?

 

[Wagerallsports]

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1862939078045434263

 

[Wagerallsports]

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1863348210049200575

 

[Brock Landers]

Haven't paid attention to NBA in a few weeks
Don't miss a thing

 

[KingKolzig]

Haven't paid attention to NBA in a few weeks
Don't miss a thing

SEXPOT might want some tonite. Driving home now!!!

Get some!!!!!!