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MLB Playoff Picks for Monday: Can Mariners Sail to 2-0 Series Lead on Road?
Going forward, we are posting write-ups right here in the forum instead of the BMR Picks section. We have two selections for Monday, consisting of a side in the Mariners vs. Blue Jays Game 2 matchup, as well as a total in Dodgers vs. Brewers Game 1. The first pitch for the first game is scheduled for 5:03pm ET.
Seattle Mariners vs. Toronto Blue Jays
Monday, October 13th – 5:03pm ET
Seattle drew first blood in the ALCS with a 3-1 victory last night, and now Game 2 presents us with a relatively close pitching matchup. This has us going for the value with Logan Gilbert and the Mariners as underdogs while visiting Trey Yesavage and the Blue Jays.
Gilbert Career High K-Rate, Great Current Form
Gilbert had an unlucky record of just 6-6 during the regular season, unfathomably logging 13 no-decisions, marking just over half of his 25 starts. He deserved much better given his 3.44 ERA and a 2.95 xFIP, with the latter being the sixth best in baseball among pitchers with at least 130 innings pitched.
Logan also enters this contest in supreme current form. First, he allowed three runs or less in each of his last seven regular season starts, allowing two or less in six of them, with a great K/BB ratio of 10.98/1.83 per nine innings in those starts. Then, he allowed one run and only four hits with seven strikeouts and not a single walk in six innings in his ALDS start vs. the Tigers. And for good measure, he tossed two scoreless innings out of the bullpen in the decisive Game 5.
Sure, Gilbert’s walks were up a bit this year after being among the league leaders with sub-2.00/9 marks each of the last two years, but not terribly so at 2.13/9. Besides, he more than made up for it with an impressive career-high strikeout rate of 11.89/9 over 131.0 innings, a big jump from an already very good 9.49/9 last season. That leap is validated by a career-best swinging strike rate of 15.5%, in no small part due to a splitter rated a fantastic 144 on Stuff+.
Once the bullpen gets involved, that unit ranked eighth in the majors in xFIP and ninth in ERA during the season and tossed three scoreless innings last night.
Yesavage with Great Future, But Overpriced?
Now, we have nothing against Yesavage and think he has a great future ahead of him. But the fact remains that he just came up for his first three Major League starts in September, over which he went 1-0 with a 3.21 ERA and a nicely aligning 3.23 xFIP while posting a nice 10.29/9 K-Rate. However, the walk issues that plagued him at every minor league stop followed him to the majors, with an ugly rate of 4.50/9 over his 14.0 innings.
We also concede that Trey was brilliant in his ALDS start against the Yankees with11 strikeouts in 5.1 scoreless innings without allowing a hit. Our issue here is the price, as we are still not convinced that he is the better starting pitcher here, let alone being a decided favorite over a much more experienced opponent.
Moreover, the Toronto pen has struggled during these playoffs with a 5.79 ERA and 4.77 xFIP.
We feel that these odds are inflated due to the combination of the Blue Jays being in “desperation mode” not wanting to drop the first two games at home and the many eyes on Yesavage’s great ALDS start. Thus, we are betting on the value with the Mariners at this dog price.
THE PICK
Mariners +120 at Bookmaker
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Milwaukee Brewers
Monday, October 13th – 8:08pm ET
The Dodgers and Brewers are opening their NLCS with Game 1 on Monday, and the one known starting pitcher here is Blake Snell for Los Angeles. Milwaukee is likely going with an opener, but there are still two candidates for who will bulk in either Quinn Priester or Jose Quintana. We feel that each of those potential bulkers is good enough to bet on the Under in this spot.
Snell Still Fresh After Missing Much of Season
Snell is a two-time Cy Young Award winner that missed four months of the season, undergoing surgery to repair a torn labrum in May. He was expected to miss the rest of the year, but instead, made a speedy recovery and made his return on August 2nd. Best of all, he has looked like his Cy Young self since returning, and he ironically benefits from the injury as he is still fresh and is in what would normally be his mid-season form.
Blake finished with 11 starts and probably deserved a better fate than a 5-4 record given his spiffy 2.35 ERA and 3.09 xFIP over 61.1 innings. He had good velocity at 95.1 MPH for his fastball as well as nice support from his two secondary pitches per Stuff+, with his cutter rated 109 and his change-up at 100. He even had an excellent Location+ of 112, which has not always been the case in the past when Snell had some bouts with his command.
Furthermore, he has been great in his two playoff starts, allowing a total of two runs and five hits in 13.0 innings with 18 strikeouts vs. five walks.
Either Bulker (or Starter?) Will Do
As for the Brewers, it is almost certain that either Priester or Quintana will be a primary pitcher in this game, and it is still possible that one of them will start the game, although we think an opener is more likely.
If it is Priester, yes, he struggled in his playoff debut while being unable to get out of the first inning against the Cubs, allowing a leadoff homer and exiting after only two outs while being charged with four earned runs. Still, Quinn came into his own in his third Major League season at the age of 25, going an amazing 13-3 in 29 appearances (24 starts) with a 3.32 ERA and 3.81 xFIP.
Perhaps Priester would be more comfortable following an opener, but he showed enough during the year to trust him to have a bounce-back start.
If it is Quintana, he was activated off the injured list prior to the playoffs and made his return in relief following Priester’s rough outing. And not only did he look sharp while allowing just two hits in three scoreless innings, but the average velocity on his customarily heavy sinker of 90.5 MPH was right in line with his season average, showing no effect from the calf injury that sidelined him.
Jose finished the season 11-7 with a 3.96 ERA, quietly marking the fourth straight season the 36-year-old has posted a sun-4.00 ERA while pitching for four different teams.
We fully expect Snell to post a Quality Start in this game, and we also think that the Brewers’ pitching options are good enough to limit the scoring. We are going Under the total in Milwaukee.
THE PICK
Under 7.5 +100 at Bet105
Going forward, we are posting write-ups right here in the forum instead of the BMR Picks section. We have two selections for Monday, consisting of a side in the Mariners vs. Blue Jays Game 2 matchup, as well as a total in Dodgers vs. Brewers Game 1. The first pitch for the first game is scheduled for 5:03pm ET.
Seattle Mariners vs. Toronto Blue Jays
Monday, October 13th – 5:03pm ET
Seattle drew first blood in the ALCS with a 3-1 victory last night, and now Game 2 presents us with a relatively close pitching matchup. This has us going for the value with Logan Gilbert and the Mariners as underdogs while visiting Trey Yesavage and the Blue Jays.
Gilbert Career High K-Rate, Great Current Form
Gilbert had an unlucky record of just 6-6 during the regular season, unfathomably logging 13 no-decisions, marking just over half of his 25 starts. He deserved much better given his 3.44 ERA and a 2.95 xFIP, with the latter being the sixth best in baseball among pitchers with at least 130 innings pitched.
Logan also enters this contest in supreme current form. First, he allowed three runs or less in each of his last seven regular season starts, allowing two or less in six of them, with a great K/BB ratio of 10.98/1.83 per nine innings in those starts. Then, he allowed one run and only four hits with seven strikeouts and not a single walk in six innings in his ALDS start vs. the Tigers. And for good measure, he tossed two scoreless innings out of the bullpen in the decisive Game 5.
Sure, Gilbert’s walks were up a bit this year after being among the league leaders with sub-2.00/9 marks each of the last two years, but not terribly so at 2.13/9. Besides, he more than made up for it with an impressive career-high strikeout rate of 11.89/9 over 131.0 innings, a big jump from an already very good 9.49/9 last season. That leap is validated by a career-best swinging strike rate of 15.5%, in no small part due to a splitter rated a fantastic 144 on Stuff+.
Once the bullpen gets involved, that unit ranked eighth in the majors in xFIP and ninth in ERA during the season and tossed three scoreless innings last night.
Yesavage with Great Future, But Overpriced?
Now, we have nothing against Yesavage and think he has a great future ahead of him. But the fact remains that he just came up for his first three Major League starts in September, over which he went 1-0 with a 3.21 ERA and a nicely aligning 3.23 xFIP while posting a nice 10.29/9 K-Rate. However, the walk issues that plagued him at every minor league stop followed him to the majors, with an ugly rate of 4.50/9 over his 14.0 innings.
We also concede that Trey was brilliant in his ALDS start against the Yankees with11 strikeouts in 5.1 scoreless innings without allowing a hit. Our issue here is the price, as we are still not convinced that he is the better starting pitcher here, let alone being a decided favorite over a much more experienced opponent.
Moreover, the Toronto pen has struggled during these playoffs with a 5.79 ERA and 4.77 xFIP.
We feel that these odds are inflated due to the combination of the Blue Jays being in “desperation mode” not wanting to drop the first two games at home and the many eyes on Yesavage’s great ALDS start. Thus, we are betting on the value with the Mariners at this dog price.
THE PICK
Mariners +120 at Bookmaker
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Milwaukee Brewers
Monday, October 13th – 8:08pm ET
The Dodgers and Brewers are opening their NLCS with Game 1 on Monday, and the one known starting pitcher here is Blake Snell for Los Angeles. Milwaukee is likely going with an opener, but there are still two candidates for who will bulk in either Quinn Priester or Jose Quintana. We feel that each of those potential bulkers is good enough to bet on the Under in this spot.
Snell Still Fresh After Missing Much of Season
Snell is a two-time Cy Young Award winner that missed four months of the season, undergoing surgery to repair a torn labrum in May. He was expected to miss the rest of the year, but instead, made a speedy recovery and made his return on August 2nd. Best of all, he has looked like his Cy Young self since returning, and he ironically benefits from the injury as he is still fresh and is in what would normally be his mid-season form.
Blake finished with 11 starts and probably deserved a better fate than a 5-4 record given his spiffy 2.35 ERA and 3.09 xFIP over 61.1 innings. He had good velocity at 95.1 MPH for his fastball as well as nice support from his two secondary pitches per Stuff+, with his cutter rated 109 and his change-up at 100. He even had an excellent Location+ of 112, which has not always been the case in the past when Snell had some bouts with his command.
Furthermore, he has been great in his two playoff starts, allowing a total of two runs and five hits in 13.0 innings with 18 strikeouts vs. five walks.
Either Bulker (or Starter?) Will Do
As for the Brewers, it is almost certain that either Priester or Quintana will be a primary pitcher in this game, and it is still possible that one of them will start the game, although we think an opener is more likely.
If it is Priester, yes, he struggled in his playoff debut while being unable to get out of the first inning against the Cubs, allowing a leadoff homer and exiting after only two outs while being charged with four earned runs. Still, Quinn came into his own in his third Major League season at the age of 25, going an amazing 13-3 in 29 appearances (24 starts) with a 3.32 ERA and 3.81 xFIP.
Perhaps Priester would be more comfortable following an opener, but he showed enough during the year to trust him to have a bounce-back start.
If it is Quintana, he was activated off the injured list prior to the playoffs and made his return in relief following Priester’s rough outing. And not only did he look sharp while allowing just two hits in three scoreless innings, but the average velocity on his customarily heavy sinker of 90.5 MPH was right in line with his season average, showing no effect from the calf injury that sidelined him.
Jose finished the season 11-7 with a 3.96 ERA, quietly marking the fourth straight season the 36-year-old has posted a sun-4.00 ERA while pitching for four different teams.
We fully expect Snell to post a Quality Start in this game, and we also think that the Brewers’ pitching options are good enough to limit the scoring. We are going Under the total in Milwaukee.
THE PICK
Under 7.5 +100 at Bet105
