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MLB Playoff Pick for Wednesday: More Runs Scored in Seattle in ALCS
We had another winner with the Dodgers last night, bringing us to 3-0 with our MLB write-ups so far this week. We are back on Wednesday with a selection for Game 3 of the ALCS between the Blue Jays and Mariners in Seattle.
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Seattle Mariners
Wednesday, October 15th – 8:08pm ET
The Mariners won the first two games of this series over the Blue Jays on the road, giving them a nice stranglehold right now with the scenery shifting home to the Emerald City. Our major focus is on the total here though, and we are backing the Over with George Kirby facing Shane Bieber.
Disappointing Season for Kirby
Kirby was quietly one of the better and more underrated pitchers in baseball the last two years, but he slipped noticeably this season, which was a surprise given he is still only 27 years old. After posting a 3.35 ERA and 4.2 WAR in 2023 and a 3.53 ERA and 4.1 WAR last season, he went 10-8 this year with a disappointing 4.21 ERA and just a 2.4 WAR over 23 starts.
Most pitchers would be happy with a walk rate of 2.07/9, but that was actually a big jump for George after leading the Major Leagues in walk rate each of the last two years at 0.90/9 and 1.08/9 respectively. And that decline is validated by his overall Stuff+ dropping below 100 to 98 this season (or 2% below average) after sitting at 104 each of the last two years.
Furthermore, Kirby saw a drop in his soft contact rate to 11.7% from 17.8% last year, while his hard contact rose from 29.4% to 33.9%. Granted, his frontline stats were good in his two playoff starts allowing three runs and nine hits in 10 innings. But both of those were against a struggling Detroit offense and he got away with a horrendous soft/hard contact ratio of 9.3%/41.7%!
He now must deal with a Toronto offense that finished fifth in the majors in wRC+ vs. right-handed pitchers at 113 (13% above average). The Blue Jays also have the highest overall wRC+ during these playoffs at a whopping 125.
Bieber Losing Stuff Lately?
Bieber returned after over a year off following Tommy John surgery on August 22nd, and the former Cy Young Award winner posted nice numbers for the Jays. He went 4-2 in seven starts with a nice 3.57 ERA and a better 3.35 xFIP. However, after looking like the same Cy Young pitcher of old early on, he regressed as the year went on and we find his last two starts quite concerning.
Normally, we take a long-term approach with our evaluations taking all the ebbs and flows in stride, but one exception is when someone coming off an injury suddenly shows decline, as that is a bigger red flag. Shane saw his xFIP rise with each passing start, and he was lucky to allow only two runs in five innings in his final regular season outing, given his fastball drop to 91.0 MPH and single game xFIP of 5.29 and Stuff+ of 91.
That concern then amplified with his poor start in the ALDS where he allowed five runs in 2.2 innings.
1 Pick for Now
With the combination of Kirby’s newfound propensity for hard contact while facing a good offense and Bieber’s loss of form shortly after his return from Tommy John has us betting on the Over at a relatively low posted total.
While the Over is our only official play, we are not opposed to backing the Blue Jays as dogs, although we are holding off for now. Check our MLB Picks thread in case we add that side later.
THE PICK
Over 7 -104 at Heritage
We had another winner with the Dodgers last night, bringing us to 3-0 with our MLB write-ups so far this week. We are back on Wednesday with a selection for Game 3 of the ALCS between the Blue Jays and Mariners in Seattle.
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Seattle Mariners
Wednesday, October 15th – 8:08pm ET
The Mariners won the first two games of this series over the Blue Jays on the road, giving them a nice stranglehold right now with the scenery shifting home to the Emerald City. Our major focus is on the total here though, and we are backing the Over with George Kirby facing Shane Bieber.
Disappointing Season for Kirby
Kirby was quietly one of the better and more underrated pitchers in baseball the last two years, but he slipped noticeably this season, which was a surprise given he is still only 27 years old. After posting a 3.35 ERA and 4.2 WAR in 2023 and a 3.53 ERA and 4.1 WAR last season, he went 10-8 this year with a disappointing 4.21 ERA and just a 2.4 WAR over 23 starts.
Most pitchers would be happy with a walk rate of 2.07/9, but that was actually a big jump for George after leading the Major Leagues in walk rate each of the last two years at 0.90/9 and 1.08/9 respectively. And that decline is validated by his overall Stuff+ dropping below 100 to 98 this season (or 2% below average) after sitting at 104 each of the last two years.
Furthermore, Kirby saw a drop in his soft contact rate to 11.7% from 17.8% last year, while his hard contact rose from 29.4% to 33.9%. Granted, his frontline stats were good in his two playoff starts allowing three runs and nine hits in 10 innings. But both of those were against a struggling Detroit offense and he got away with a horrendous soft/hard contact ratio of 9.3%/41.7%!
He now must deal with a Toronto offense that finished fifth in the majors in wRC+ vs. right-handed pitchers at 113 (13% above average). The Blue Jays also have the highest overall wRC+ during these playoffs at a whopping 125.
Bieber Losing Stuff Lately?
Bieber returned after over a year off following Tommy John surgery on August 22nd, and the former Cy Young Award winner posted nice numbers for the Jays. He went 4-2 in seven starts with a nice 3.57 ERA and a better 3.35 xFIP. However, after looking like the same Cy Young pitcher of old early on, he regressed as the year went on and we find his last two starts quite concerning.
Normally, we take a long-term approach with our evaluations taking all the ebbs and flows in stride, but one exception is when someone coming off an injury suddenly shows decline, as that is a bigger red flag. Shane saw his xFIP rise with each passing start, and he was lucky to allow only two runs in five innings in his final regular season outing, given his fastball drop to 91.0 MPH and single game xFIP of 5.29 and Stuff+ of 91.
That concern then amplified with his poor start in the ALDS where he allowed five runs in 2.2 innings.
1 Pick for Now
With the combination of Kirby’s newfound propensity for hard contact while facing a good offense and Bieber’s loss of form shortly after his return from Tommy John has us betting on the Over at a relatively low posted total.
While the Over is our only official play, we are not opposed to backing the Blue Jays as dogs, although we are holding off for now. Check our MLB Picks thread in case we add that side later.
THE PICK
Over 7 -104 at Heritage
The corporate "we" as BMR employee
