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MLB World Series Pick for Tuesday: Rare Run Line Value for Game 4
We are now on runs of 6-1 in MLB and 11-2 in All Sports with our write-ups after winning with Over on Monday. We are back Tuesday with a rare run line play for Blue Jays vs. Dodgers in World Series Game 4 from Dodger Stadium.
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Los Angeles Dodgers
Tuesday, October 28th – 8:00pm ET
Well, we basically had a doubleheader in World Series Game 3 last night with the Dodgers prevailing 6-5 in 18 innings on a Freddie Freeman walk-off. We think that the overused bullpens with neither starter reaching 5 innings Monday provides some rare run line value Tuesday with Shohei Ohtani facing Shane Bieber of the Blue Jays.
Bieber Can Provide Needed Starters’ Length
For the record, under normal circumstances, this game would be a total pass for us as our model has this game at Dodgers 64% (-178) and the total at 8.0 flat. Sure, that may provide a smidge of value at Under 8.5, but we have no interest in chasing an Under after each pen worked around 13 innings last night.
However, what makes this game out of the ordinary is the extra emphasis on the starting pitchers providing length, and we think Bieber is better equipped to do that tonight. Bieber made his return after missing over a year following Tommy John surgery on August 22nd, and he put up good numbers in his seven regular season starts posting a 3.57 ERA and a better 3.35 xFIP with a nice K/BB ratio of 8.26/1.56 per nine innings.
Perhaps most importantly regarding tonight’s game, he went beyond five innings in six of those seven starts, with the only exception being going exactly five innings in his final start. Yes, he has been hit-or-miss in the post-season, as after appearing to be back in form when allowing two runs on four hits while recording eight strikeouts in six innings in Game 3 of the ALCS, he then allowed seven hits in 3.2 innings in Game 7, rather luckily escaping with allowing two runs.
However, he still had five strikeouts in those 3.2 innings, so his stuff was not the issue. Remember that Bieber has a Location+ of 106 during the season, and if he regains that here after being a bit off in his last start, he is more than capable of giving the Blue Jays six innings, and maybe even seven with this figuring to be his last start of the year. And the belated season debut works to Shane’s advantage as he is still relatively fresh.
How Tired is Ohtani?
Naturally, the Dodgers would love to get a similarly extended outing from Ohtani but remember that they were very careful with him all year following his own Tommy John surgery. In fact, he did not pitch more than five innings in any of his 14 regular season starts before going six innings in each of his two playoff outings.
Naturally, he has been great while posting a 2.87 ERA and 2.45 xFIP during the season and allowing three runs in 12 post-season innings with 19 strikeouts. However, we still do not think he is as stretched out as Bieber, and with the Dodgers leading the series, we feel manager Dave Roberts will be less inclined to push his superstar beyond his limits. And then there is also an added factor of fatigue after Shohei was on base nine times last night and cramped up late.
Having cramps the night before a start is not a positive sign, so don’t expect more than Ohtani’s normal workload from this season tonight. And we are not confident that the oft-maligned Dodgers’ bullpen can duplicate its great performance of last night, as remember that even including that outlier, the LA pen has a 4.50 ERA and an ugly 5.18 xFIP this post-season,
We think that Bieber’s probable ability to pitch more innings narrows the gap in this game, although we do not expect the Toronto money line price to ever exceed the model price of +178 enough to merit a play. However, we do see value in the underdog run line at a relatively cheap price, so we are betting on the Blue Jays at +1.5 in a game that could come down to the wire again.
THE PICK
Blue Jays +1.5 -115 at Bet105
We are now on runs of 6-1 in MLB and 11-2 in All Sports with our write-ups after winning with Over on Monday. We are back Tuesday with a rare run line play for Blue Jays vs. Dodgers in World Series Game 4 from Dodger Stadium.
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Los Angeles Dodgers
Tuesday, October 28th – 8:00pm ET
Well, we basically had a doubleheader in World Series Game 3 last night with the Dodgers prevailing 6-5 in 18 innings on a Freddie Freeman walk-off. We think that the overused bullpens with neither starter reaching 5 innings Monday provides some rare run line value Tuesday with Shohei Ohtani facing Shane Bieber of the Blue Jays.
Bieber Can Provide Needed Starters’ Length
For the record, under normal circumstances, this game would be a total pass for us as our model has this game at Dodgers 64% (-178) and the total at 8.0 flat. Sure, that may provide a smidge of value at Under 8.5, but we have no interest in chasing an Under after each pen worked around 13 innings last night.
However, what makes this game out of the ordinary is the extra emphasis on the starting pitchers providing length, and we think Bieber is better equipped to do that tonight. Bieber made his return after missing over a year following Tommy John surgery on August 22nd, and he put up good numbers in his seven regular season starts posting a 3.57 ERA and a better 3.35 xFIP with a nice K/BB ratio of 8.26/1.56 per nine innings.
Perhaps most importantly regarding tonight’s game, he went beyond five innings in six of those seven starts, with the only exception being going exactly five innings in his final start. Yes, he has been hit-or-miss in the post-season, as after appearing to be back in form when allowing two runs on four hits while recording eight strikeouts in six innings in Game 3 of the ALCS, he then allowed seven hits in 3.2 innings in Game 7, rather luckily escaping with allowing two runs.
However, he still had five strikeouts in those 3.2 innings, so his stuff was not the issue. Remember that Bieber has a Location+ of 106 during the season, and if he regains that here after being a bit off in his last start, he is more than capable of giving the Blue Jays six innings, and maybe even seven with this figuring to be his last start of the year. And the belated season debut works to Shane’s advantage as he is still relatively fresh.
How Tired is Ohtani?
Naturally, the Dodgers would love to get a similarly extended outing from Ohtani but remember that they were very careful with him all year following his own Tommy John surgery. In fact, he did not pitch more than five innings in any of his 14 regular season starts before going six innings in each of his two playoff outings.
Naturally, he has been great while posting a 2.87 ERA and 2.45 xFIP during the season and allowing three runs in 12 post-season innings with 19 strikeouts. However, we still do not think he is as stretched out as Bieber, and with the Dodgers leading the series, we feel manager Dave Roberts will be less inclined to push his superstar beyond his limits. And then there is also an added factor of fatigue after Shohei was on base nine times last night and cramped up late.
Having cramps the night before a start is not a positive sign, so don’t expect more than Ohtani’s normal workload from this season tonight. And we are not confident that the oft-maligned Dodgers’ bullpen can duplicate its great performance of last night, as remember that even including that outlier, the LA pen has a 4.50 ERA and an ugly 5.18 xFIP this post-season,
We think that Bieber’s probable ability to pitch more innings narrows the gap in this game, although we do not expect the Toronto money line price to ever exceed the model price of +178 enough to merit a play. However, we do see value in the underdog run line at a relatively cheap price, so we are betting on the Blue Jays at +1.5 in a game that could come down to the wire again.
THE PICK
Blue Jays +1.5 -115 at Bet105
