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MLB Playoff Pick for Tuesday: Yamamoto to Make Sushi of Milwaukee Bats?
We had a 2-0 sweep yesterday including an underdog winner with the Mariners at +120. We are back on Tuesday with a selection for the only game of the day with the Dodgers visiting Milwaukee for Game 2 of the NLDS.
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Milwaukee Brewers
Tuesday, October 14th – 8:08pm ET
The Dodgers survived a treacherous ninth inning to survive with a 2-1 victory over the Brewers in Game 1 of this NLCS here in Milwaukee last night. Now, we are looking for Los Angeles to take a commanding series lead with a second straight road win with Yoshinobu Yamamoto facing Freddy Peralta on Tuesday.
Yamamoto One of Best Pitchers in Baseball
After having an injury plagued season as a Major League rookie last season, Yamamoto was one of the best pitchers in baseball this year at the still young age of 27, which is not always the case for veteran Japanese pitchers that come over. He certainly pitched better than his 12-8 record, as he posted a 2.49 ERA that ranked fourth in the majors, as well as ranking sixth in xFIP at 3.05 and seventh in Pitching WAR at 5.0.
Yoshinobu has a vast repertoire of six pitches, four of which he threw at least 11% of the time during the regular season. He averaged 95.4 MPH on his fastball and had three secondary pitches rated 104 or better on Stuff+ in his splitter, slider and sinker. We love pitchers that combine strikeouts and grounders, and that pitch-mix from Yamamoto took things to a very high level, as he ranked fifth in the league in K-Rate at 10.42/9 and eighth in groundball-rate at 52.8%.
Granted he comes off his worst outing in a while where he lasted just four innings against the Phillies in the NLDS, allowing three earned runs on six hits plus a walk with just two strikeouts. However, we expect a bounce-back effort here after he closed the regular season by allowing two runs or less in six straight starts including a near no-hitter in Baltimore and then tossing 6.2 scoreless innings vs. the Reds in the Wild Card Round.
Peralta Good but He Had Lucky ERA
Peralta also had a fine season going 17-6 while ranking seventh in the league in ERA at 2.70. However, unlike Yamamoto, Peralta has some suspect peripherals that do not support his ERA, with the prime indicator of that is his xFIP being over a full run higher at 3.85. Now, the xFIP is still decent, but it pales here compared to his mound opponent.
Freddy’s ERA is padded by scoring highly in the two biggest Luck Stats, an area where one does not want to score highly. To wit, he had the highest strand rate in baseball at an abnormal 85.5%, as well as the fifth lowest BABIP allowed in the league at .243. Perhaps that luck is finally catching up with Freddy, as he has a 4.86 ERA in his two playoff starts. In fact, Peralta has never shined too brightly this time of year with a 4.23 career ERA over eight playoff appearances.
We see a bigger edge in the starters here for Los Angeles than their respective ERAs may suggest. Given these reasonable odds, we are betting on the Dodgers as moderate road favorites.
THE PICK
Dodgers -123 at Bet105
We had a 2-0 sweep yesterday including an underdog winner with the Mariners at +120. We are back on Tuesday with a selection for the only game of the day with the Dodgers visiting Milwaukee for Game 2 of the NLDS.
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Milwaukee Brewers
Tuesday, October 14th – 8:08pm ET
The Dodgers survived a treacherous ninth inning to survive with a 2-1 victory over the Brewers in Game 1 of this NLCS here in Milwaukee last night. Now, we are looking for Los Angeles to take a commanding series lead with a second straight road win with Yoshinobu Yamamoto facing Freddy Peralta on Tuesday.
Yamamoto One of Best Pitchers in Baseball
After having an injury plagued season as a Major League rookie last season, Yamamoto was one of the best pitchers in baseball this year at the still young age of 27, which is not always the case for veteran Japanese pitchers that come over. He certainly pitched better than his 12-8 record, as he posted a 2.49 ERA that ranked fourth in the majors, as well as ranking sixth in xFIP at 3.05 and seventh in Pitching WAR at 5.0.
Yoshinobu has a vast repertoire of six pitches, four of which he threw at least 11% of the time during the regular season. He averaged 95.4 MPH on his fastball and had three secondary pitches rated 104 or better on Stuff+ in his splitter, slider and sinker. We love pitchers that combine strikeouts and grounders, and that pitch-mix from Yamamoto took things to a very high level, as he ranked fifth in the league in K-Rate at 10.42/9 and eighth in groundball-rate at 52.8%.
Granted he comes off his worst outing in a while where he lasted just four innings against the Phillies in the NLDS, allowing three earned runs on six hits plus a walk with just two strikeouts. However, we expect a bounce-back effort here after he closed the regular season by allowing two runs or less in six straight starts including a near no-hitter in Baltimore and then tossing 6.2 scoreless innings vs. the Reds in the Wild Card Round.
Peralta Good but He Had Lucky ERA
Peralta also had a fine season going 17-6 while ranking seventh in the league in ERA at 2.70. However, unlike Yamamoto, Peralta has some suspect peripherals that do not support his ERA, with the prime indicator of that is his xFIP being over a full run higher at 3.85. Now, the xFIP is still decent, but it pales here compared to his mound opponent.
Freddy’s ERA is padded by scoring highly in the two biggest Luck Stats, an area where one does not want to score highly. To wit, he had the highest strand rate in baseball at an abnormal 85.5%, as well as the fifth lowest BABIP allowed in the league at .243. Perhaps that luck is finally catching up with Freddy, as he has a 4.86 ERA in his two playoff starts. In fact, Peralta has never shined too brightly this time of year with a 4.23 career ERA over eight playoff appearances.
We see a bigger edge in the starters here for Los Angeles than their respective ERAs may suggest. Given these reasonable odds, we are betting on the Dodgers as moderate road favorites.
THE PICK
Dodgers -123 at Bet105
