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MLB Playoff Pick for Sunday: Less Scoring than Game 2 in Game 6 ALCS Rematch
We are on a 4-0 run with our MLB write-ups after another winner on Wednesday with the Over in Game 3 of this ALCS between the Mariners and Blue Jays. We are now trying to extend that streak as we return on Sunday for ALCS Game 6 north of the border in prime time at Rogers Centre.
Seattle Mariners vs. Toronto Blue Jays
Sunday, October 19th – 8:03pm ET
The Mariners can reach the World Series with a win on Sunday after beating the Blue Jays at home Friday to take a 3-2 series lead. We expect this to be a pitching rematch from Game 2 here in Toronto, as the Jays have already named Trey Yesavage their starter and Seattle will probably come back with Logan Gilbert. Neither starter was at their best in Game 2, but we expect both to make necessary adjustments facing the same team again, prompting us to go Under in Game 6.
Gilbert in Great Form Before Hiccup
Gilbert had a great regular season that was much better than his 6-6 would indicate. He finished with a 3.44 ERA and ranked sixth in the Major Leagues among pitchers with at least 130 innings pitched with his 2.95 xFIP. He also had a great finish to the season, allowing two runs or less in six of his last seven starts and just three runs in the other one, posting a nice K/BB ratio of 10.98/1.83 per nine innings over those seven outings.
That great form extended into the ALDS against the Tigers, as he allowed one run and four hits with seven strikeouts and no walks in his only start of that series, and then tossed two scoreless innings out of the bullpen in the decisive Game 5. However, he was not very sharp in Game 2 of this series despite allowing only three runs, as that was over just three innings while allowing five hits plus one walk and running up his pitch-count to 59 while laboring in those three frames.
We now look for a return to form for Logan here pitching on normal rest. And that form saw him post a very good K/BB ratio during the season of 11.89/2.13 per nine innings. That K-Rate was rather easily a career best, and there was nothing fluky about it given he also had a career-best swinging strike rate of 15.5%. That jump corelated to developing his splitter to the point where it rated a remarkable 144 on Stuff+!
Expect Better from Rookie Yesavage Too
The rookie Yesavage had his worst start since his September recall at the worst time, as he was roughed up for five earned runs on four hits plus three walks in just four innings in Game 2. And you cannot blame it on butterflies either, as the 22-year-old was brilliant in his playoff debut against the Yankees in the ALDS, not allowing a hit over 5.1 scoreless innings with 11 strikeouts vs. one walk.
Trey made a fast ascent to the majors after being drafted just last year in the first round of the 2024 MLB Draft, and he showed why in his three September starts with a 3.21 ERA and aligning 3.23 xFIP. His huge strikeout rates in the minors continued in those three MLB starts, with the K-Rate at 10.29/9. His fastball averaged 94.7 MPH, but he also had two great secondary pitches with his splitter and slider rated 122 and 102 respectively on Stuff+.
That arsenal led to literally an equally good swinging strike rate as Gilbert at an identical 15.5%, albeit over a much smaller sampling of 14 innings. Still, his ALDS start vs. the powerful Yankees’ lineup, as well as the confidence manager John Schneider has in him to start him in an elimination game has us expecting a rebounding effort after his first bad start.
Gilbert quietly pitched great all year as evidenced by his sub-3.00 xFIP, while Yesavage had done the same prior to his Game 2 blow-up. We are betting on the Under here while expecting both starters to shine.
Note that since we made this bet at Bet105, the play has Action even if Gilbert does not start. Also, while the Under is our only wager as of now, please check our MLB Picks thread in case we add a side here later.
THE PICK
Under 7.5 -111 at Bet105
We are on a 4-0 run with our MLB write-ups after another winner on Wednesday with the Over in Game 3 of this ALCS between the Mariners and Blue Jays. We are now trying to extend that streak as we return on Sunday for ALCS Game 6 north of the border in prime time at Rogers Centre.
Seattle Mariners vs. Toronto Blue Jays
Sunday, October 19th – 8:03pm ET
The Mariners can reach the World Series with a win on Sunday after beating the Blue Jays at home Friday to take a 3-2 series lead. We expect this to be a pitching rematch from Game 2 here in Toronto, as the Jays have already named Trey Yesavage their starter and Seattle will probably come back with Logan Gilbert. Neither starter was at their best in Game 2, but we expect both to make necessary adjustments facing the same team again, prompting us to go Under in Game 6.
Gilbert in Great Form Before Hiccup
Gilbert had a great regular season that was much better than his 6-6 would indicate. He finished with a 3.44 ERA and ranked sixth in the Major Leagues among pitchers with at least 130 innings pitched with his 2.95 xFIP. He also had a great finish to the season, allowing two runs or less in six of his last seven starts and just three runs in the other one, posting a nice K/BB ratio of 10.98/1.83 per nine innings over those seven outings.
That great form extended into the ALDS against the Tigers, as he allowed one run and four hits with seven strikeouts and no walks in his only start of that series, and then tossed two scoreless innings out of the bullpen in the decisive Game 5. However, he was not very sharp in Game 2 of this series despite allowing only three runs, as that was over just three innings while allowing five hits plus one walk and running up his pitch-count to 59 while laboring in those three frames.
We now look for a return to form for Logan here pitching on normal rest. And that form saw him post a very good K/BB ratio during the season of 11.89/2.13 per nine innings. That K-Rate was rather easily a career best, and there was nothing fluky about it given he also had a career-best swinging strike rate of 15.5%. That jump corelated to developing his splitter to the point where it rated a remarkable 144 on Stuff+!
Expect Better from Rookie Yesavage Too
The rookie Yesavage had his worst start since his September recall at the worst time, as he was roughed up for five earned runs on four hits plus three walks in just four innings in Game 2. And you cannot blame it on butterflies either, as the 22-year-old was brilliant in his playoff debut against the Yankees in the ALDS, not allowing a hit over 5.1 scoreless innings with 11 strikeouts vs. one walk.
Trey made a fast ascent to the majors after being drafted just last year in the first round of the 2024 MLB Draft, and he showed why in his three September starts with a 3.21 ERA and aligning 3.23 xFIP. His huge strikeout rates in the minors continued in those three MLB starts, with the K-Rate at 10.29/9. His fastball averaged 94.7 MPH, but he also had two great secondary pitches with his splitter and slider rated 122 and 102 respectively on Stuff+.
That arsenal led to literally an equally good swinging strike rate as Gilbert at an identical 15.5%, albeit over a much smaller sampling of 14 innings. Still, his ALDS start vs. the powerful Yankees’ lineup, as well as the confidence manager John Schneider has in him to start him in an elimination game has us expecting a rebounding effort after his first bad start.
Gilbert quietly pitched great all year as evidenced by his sub-3.00 xFIP, while Yesavage had done the same prior to his Game 2 blow-up. We are betting on the Under here while expecting both starters to shine.
Note that since we made this bet at Bet105, the play has Action even if Gilbert does not start. Also, while the Under is our only wager as of now, please check our MLB Picks thread in case we add a side here later.
THE PICK
Under 7.5 -111 at Bet105
