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MLB World Series Pick for Monday: Lots of Runs Likely in Los Angeles
We are now on runs of 5-1 in MLB and 10-2 in All Sports with our write-ups. We are back on Monday with a play for Blue Jays vs. Dodgers in World Series Game 3 with the scenery shifting to Los Angeles.
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Los Angeles Dodgers
Monday, October 27th – 8:00pm ET
After splitting the first two games in Toronto, the Dodgers now host Game 3 of this World Series against the Blue Jays in LA with Tyler Glasnow taking on Max Scherzer. We expect the two offenses to do enough here to back the Over in this contest.
Scherzer Probably Over the Hill?
We thought that the now 41-year-old Scherzer was just about done before this season began given his dip in strikeout rate and velocity the last two years. Well, he basically confirmed that belief with his worst season ever this year for Toronto. Yes, injuries limited him to just 17 starts, but he was terrible when he made it to the mound and was lucky to finish 5-5 thanks to a great offense supporting him. He posted an ugly 5.19 ERA and 4.55 xFIP in 85.0 innings.
Most pitchers would be satisfied with K-Rate of 8.68/9, but that was from a pitcher with a career rate of 10.64/9. His fastball was an ordinary 93.6 MPH and rated a career-worst 92 on Stuff+. He also allowed a career-high hard contact rate of 36.3%. with most of that hard contact being in the air given his awful 27.1% groundball rate. As you might expect, that led to a poor home run rate allowed of 2.01/9.
That is not an encouraging sign facing a Dodgers offense that ranked fourth in the majors in wRC+ vs. right-handed pitchers this season at 114 (14% above average) and third in OPS against them at .769. Yes, Max was fine in his only playoff start allowing two earned runs in 5.2 innings, but that was in one of the best pitchers’ parks in baseball in T-Mobile Park and he did issue an alarming four walks.
Glasnow May Not Have to Allow Much
Glasnow also had an injury plagues season resulting in only 18 starts, but at least he pitched well for the most part going 4-3 with a 3.19 ERA across 90.1 innings. His xFIP was higher but still good at 3.72. That is not to say that he does not have some weaknesses that can be exploited by a good offense, and the best news is Glasnow may not need to allow too many runs to push this game Over the total if the Dodgers get to Scherzer as we expect.
Yes, Tyler posted an excellent strikeout rate of 10.56/9, but he also battled command with a terrible walk rate of 4.28/9. For validation, look no further than his career-low Location+ of 91, and even his overall Stuff+ was below 100 at 98. The extra traffic on the bases created by those walks is treacherous for someone with a modest soft/hard contact ratio of 14.0%/30.8%. He was very lucky to escape more damage this year thanks to a very low .225 BABIP allowed.
Now Glasnow must deal with a Toronto offense that finished right behind the Dodgers in wRC+ vs. righties during the year, finishing fifth at 113. Moreover, the Blue Jays have easily had the best offense during these playoffs with an unbelievable wRC+ of 153 overall (not a typo)!
We see both offenses taking advantage of the holes of the respective starters in this game and remember each bullpen has been an adventure also in the playoffs. Bet on the Over in Game 3.
The Over is our only pick here as of now, but while we expect the Dodgers to win this game, our model has their win rate at 62%. That equates to -163, so with the Blue Jays currently available at +172, it is possible this line gets out of hand enough to make Toronto a play. Always check our MLB Picks thread for possible additions.
THE PICK
Over 8.5 -101 at Heritage
We are now on runs of 5-1 in MLB and 10-2 in All Sports with our write-ups. We are back on Monday with a play for Blue Jays vs. Dodgers in World Series Game 3 with the scenery shifting to Los Angeles.
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Los Angeles Dodgers
Monday, October 27th – 8:00pm ET
After splitting the first two games in Toronto, the Dodgers now host Game 3 of this World Series against the Blue Jays in LA with Tyler Glasnow taking on Max Scherzer. We expect the two offenses to do enough here to back the Over in this contest.
Scherzer Probably Over the Hill?
We thought that the now 41-year-old Scherzer was just about done before this season began given his dip in strikeout rate and velocity the last two years. Well, he basically confirmed that belief with his worst season ever this year for Toronto. Yes, injuries limited him to just 17 starts, but he was terrible when he made it to the mound and was lucky to finish 5-5 thanks to a great offense supporting him. He posted an ugly 5.19 ERA and 4.55 xFIP in 85.0 innings.
Most pitchers would be satisfied with K-Rate of 8.68/9, but that was from a pitcher with a career rate of 10.64/9. His fastball was an ordinary 93.6 MPH and rated a career-worst 92 on Stuff+. He also allowed a career-high hard contact rate of 36.3%. with most of that hard contact being in the air given his awful 27.1% groundball rate. As you might expect, that led to a poor home run rate allowed of 2.01/9.
That is not an encouraging sign facing a Dodgers offense that ranked fourth in the majors in wRC+ vs. right-handed pitchers this season at 114 (14% above average) and third in OPS against them at .769. Yes, Max was fine in his only playoff start allowing two earned runs in 5.2 innings, but that was in one of the best pitchers’ parks in baseball in T-Mobile Park and he did issue an alarming four walks.
Glasnow May Not Have to Allow Much
Glasnow also had an injury plagues season resulting in only 18 starts, but at least he pitched well for the most part going 4-3 with a 3.19 ERA across 90.1 innings. His xFIP was higher but still good at 3.72. That is not to say that he does not have some weaknesses that can be exploited by a good offense, and the best news is Glasnow may not need to allow too many runs to push this game Over the total if the Dodgers get to Scherzer as we expect.
Yes, Tyler posted an excellent strikeout rate of 10.56/9, but he also battled command with a terrible walk rate of 4.28/9. For validation, look no further than his career-low Location+ of 91, and even his overall Stuff+ was below 100 at 98. The extra traffic on the bases created by those walks is treacherous for someone with a modest soft/hard contact ratio of 14.0%/30.8%. He was very lucky to escape more damage this year thanks to a very low .225 BABIP allowed.
Now Glasnow must deal with a Toronto offense that finished right behind the Dodgers in wRC+ vs. righties during the year, finishing fifth at 113. Moreover, the Blue Jays have easily had the best offense during these playoffs with an unbelievable wRC+ of 153 overall (not a typo)!
We see both offenses taking advantage of the holes of the respective starters in this game and remember each bullpen has been an adventure also in the playoffs. Bet on the Over in Game 3.
The Over is our only pick here as of now, but while we expect the Dodgers to win this game, our model has their win rate at 62%. That equates to -163, so with the Blue Jays currently available at +172, it is possible this line gets out of hand enough to make Toronto a play. Always check our MLB Picks thread for possible additions.
THE PICK
Over 8.5 -101 at Heritage
