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MLB Playoff Pick for Monday: All Hands on Deck for Mariners, Jays Game 7
All good things must end, and both our 4-0 MLB run and 7-0 All-Sports run in write-up plays ended with our half-run loss Sunday with the Under in ALCS Game 6. We now look to rebound in the decisive Game 7 on Monday with the Mariners and Blue Jays fighting for the right to face the Dodgers in the World Series.
Seattle Mariners vs. Toronto Blue Jays
Monday, October 20th – 8:08pm ET
The 2025 American League Champion will be decided at Rogers Center in Toronto on Monday with Shane Bieber and the Blue Jays hosting George Kirby and the Mariners in Game 7 of the ALCS. We are expecting a relatively low-scoring contest and are supporting the Under in an “all hands on deck” game where both teams should have their entire staffs available out of the bullpen except for the two Sunday starters.
Bieber Much Better in Game 3
We were dubious of Bieber entering Game 3 of this series after not pitching well in his prior few starts while experiencing a drop in velocity and a decrease in his Stuff+ rating. Well, he quieted those concerns with his best start in nearly a month. He allowed two runs (on a two-run homer) and only four hits in six innings while suddenly getting his stuff back after what may have simply been a bit of a “dead arm” period.
He had eight strikeouts over those six innings vs. just one walk, with those eight Ks being the most he has had in a game since striking out nine in his first start in over a year on August 22nd following Tommy John surgery. That last start served as a reminder that Shane still posted nice overall numbers during his regular season return even with a lackluster finish, going 4-2 in seven starts with a nice 3.57 ERA and a better 3.35 xFIP.
And remember, as is the case with both starters tonight, they have normal starters on standby to come out of the bullpen if necessary.
Quick Hook Possible for Kirby?
We think that starters’ help in the bullpen is more important for the Mariners tonight, as we are not quite as confident in Kirby pitching well as we are in Bieber. After being one of the better and more underrated pitchers in baseball the last two years with impeccable control while leading the majors in lowest walk rate each season, he slumped badly this year.
George finished 10-8 during the regular season with a disappointing 4.21 ERA and a mediocre 2.4 WAR over 23 starts after posting WARs of 4.2 and 4.1 the last two years. Also, after posting remarkable walk rates of 0.90/9 and 1.08/9 in 2023-2024, that rate climbed to 2.07/9 this season. Then, he got absolutely lit up in Game 3 of this series allowing eight runs on eight hits plus two walks in four innings.
Now, it is possible that Kirby can make the necessary adjustments facing the same Toronto lineup for the second straight time to perhaps match his two good playoff starts in the ALDS, where he allowed a total of three runs in 10 innings with 14 strikeouts. But if not, we expect a quick hook before too much damage is done with three starters available out of the pen that all had arguably better seasons in Luis Castillo, Bryan Woo and Bryce Miller.
We trust that Seattle manager Dan Wilson will make the right decision after evaluating Kirby’s early form. And given that we thing Bieber is back in form after his last outing, we are betting on the Under in Game 7.
Moreover, just like Game 6, while the Under is our only wager as of now, please check our MLB Picks thread in case we add a side here later.
THE PICK
Under 7.5 -105 at Bet105
All good things must end, and both our 4-0 MLB run and 7-0 All-Sports run in write-up plays ended with our half-run loss Sunday with the Under in ALCS Game 6. We now look to rebound in the decisive Game 7 on Monday with the Mariners and Blue Jays fighting for the right to face the Dodgers in the World Series.
Seattle Mariners vs. Toronto Blue Jays
Monday, October 20th – 8:08pm ET
The 2025 American League Champion will be decided at Rogers Center in Toronto on Monday with Shane Bieber and the Blue Jays hosting George Kirby and the Mariners in Game 7 of the ALCS. We are expecting a relatively low-scoring contest and are supporting the Under in an “all hands on deck” game where both teams should have their entire staffs available out of the bullpen except for the two Sunday starters.
Bieber Much Better in Game 3
We were dubious of Bieber entering Game 3 of this series after not pitching well in his prior few starts while experiencing a drop in velocity and a decrease in his Stuff+ rating. Well, he quieted those concerns with his best start in nearly a month. He allowed two runs (on a two-run homer) and only four hits in six innings while suddenly getting his stuff back after what may have simply been a bit of a “dead arm” period.
He had eight strikeouts over those six innings vs. just one walk, with those eight Ks being the most he has had in a game since striking out nine in his first start in over a year on August 22nd following Tommy John surgery. That last start served as a reminder that Shane still posted nice overall numbers during his regular season return even with a lackluster finish, going 4-2 in seven starts with a nice 3.57 ERA and a better 3.35 xFIP.
And remember, as is the case with both starters tonight, they have normal starters on standby to come out of the bullpen if necessary.
Quick Hook Possible for Kirby?
We think that starters’ help in the bullpen is more important for the Mariners tonight, as we are not quite as confident in Kirby pitching well as we are in Bieber. After being one of the better and more underrated pitchers in baseball the last two years with impeccable control while leading the majors in lowest walk rate each season, he slumped badly this year.
George finished 10-8 during the regular season with a disappointing 4.21 ERA and a mediocre 2.4 WAR over 23 starts after posting WARs of 4.2 and 4.1 the last two years. Also, after posting remarkable walk rates of 0.90/9 and 1.08/9 in 2023-2024, that rate climbed to 2.07/9 this season. Then, he got absolutely lit up in Game 3 of this series allowing eight runs on eight hits plus two walks in four innings.
Now, it is possible that Kirby can make the necessary adjustments facing the same Toronto lineup for the second straight time to perhaps match his two good playoff starts in the ALDS, where he allowed a total of three runs in 10 innings with 14 strikeouts. But if not, we expect a quick hook before too much damage is done with three starters available out of the pen that all had arguably better seasons in Luis Castillo, Bryan Woo and Bryce Miller.
We trust that Seattle manager Dan Wilson will make the right decision after evaluating Kirby’s early form. And given that we thing Bieber is back in form after his last outing, we are betting on the Under in Game 7.
Moreover, just like Game 6, while the Under is our only wager as of now, please check our MLB Picks thread in case we add a side here later.
THE PICK
Under 7.5 -105 at Bet105
