MLB World Series betting guide

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MLB World Series betting guide: Braves and Astros square off​

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ESPN betting analysts Doug Kezirian and Joe Fortenbaugh, along with ESPN MLB writer Jesse Rogers, teamed up to offer an World Series betting guide for the championship series between the Atlanta Braves and Houston Astros.

Odds courtesy of Caesars Sportsbook

Atlanta Braves (+125) vs. Houston Astros (-135)​

Game 1: Braves (+125, Charlie Morton) at Astros (-135, Framber Valdez), 8 p.m. ET

Betting splits:​

• Series: Braves 70% tickets, Braves 69% money
• Game 1: Astros 50% tickets, Astros 57% money

Notable bets​

• Per Caesars Sports: Jim "Mattress Mack" McIngvale $2M on Astros to win World Series at 10-1 odds

Nuggets​

• Braves: entered season 10-1 to win World Series (4th-shortest odds)
• Braves: championship odds were as high as 50-1 in early August
• Astros: entered season 22-1 to win World Series (got shorter entire season)
• Astros: entered postseason +475 favorite to win AL

World Series MVP​

• Jose Altuve +900
• Yordan Alvarez +1000
• Freddie Freeman +1000
• Carlos Correa +1100
• Michael Brantley +1100
• Alex Bregman +1200
• Austin Riley +1500
• Kyle Tucker +1500
• Max Fried +1500
• Eddie Rosario +1500

Exact series result prices​

• Astros in 6 +350
• Astros in 7 +375
• Braves in 7 +500
• Astros in 5 +550
• Braves in 6 +550
• Braves in 5 +650
• Astros in 4 +1100
• Braves in 4 +1600

World Series picks​

Braves +130 to win World Series

Kezirian: Even without the talent they lost this season, the Braves are still an extremely capable team. They beat the mighty Dodgers decisively this time after blowing a 3-1 lead in the 2020 NLCS. Reigning National League MVP Freeman broke out of his mini-slump and there's plenty of pop in this lineup. Houston is solid and the lineup offers minimal relief but I will side with the Braves. They have enough starting and relief pitching to hold down the Astros' lineup.

Astros -150 to win World Series, Correa to win MVP (+1100), Astros in 6 games (+350)

Rogers: The Astros were the most complete team in the American League coming into the postseason and have overcome the injury of Lance McCullers. Once their pitching settled down, they returned to being the best team with easily the deeper lineup.

Tucker has great value at 15-1 but my bet would go on Correa at 11-1. It's his last chance to show himself to teams before hitting free agency.

Would love to take the Astros in 5 at plus-550 but playing outdoors in an NL park without a DH for 3 games could be a challenge. Houston wins Games 1 and 2 then will drop 2 of 3 in Atlanta before winning it in 6.

Game 1 picks

Rogers: I like the under in Game 1. These teams don't know each other very well which is an advantage to the pitchers. Morton is the one known commodity to Houston but he has the advantage there. The Astros haven't faced him very often but he watched them day in and day out when he was a teammate.


Pick: Under 8

Fortenbaugh: The Braves do many things very, very well, but hitting southpaws doesn't fall under that umbrella. When facing left-handed pitching this season, the Braves ranked 22nd in home runs, 26th in weighted runs created (wRC) and 20th in weighted on-base average (wOBA). Hey, guess who's a left-handed pitcher? That's right, Houston Game 1 starter Valdez, who surrendered just three runs in 10⅔ innings of work against the Boston Red Sox during the ALCS. As for the Astros, Houston annihilates right-handed pitching. Guess who uses his right arm to pitch? That's right, Atlanta Game 1 starter Morton.

Pick: Astros -1.5 run line at +150