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Buster Olney's top 10 MLB position players: Corner outfielders
ESPN PLUS $ MATERIALA small sample of postseason struggles and a dropped fly ball in the World Series obscured some of what Aaron Judge accomplished in the preceding months last year, which was quite simply one of the greatest regular-season performances ever. His adjusted OPS+ of 223 was higher than the best season posted by these Yankees all-time greats (though Babe Ruth did have five seasons of 225 or better):
Yogi Berra: 142, 1956
Derek Jeter: 153, 1999
Bernie Williams: 160, 1998
Don Mattingly: 161, 1986
Dave Winfield: 166, 1979 (with the Padres)
Roger Maris: 167, 1961
Alex Rodriguez: 176, 2007
Joe DiMaggio: 185, 1941
Reggie Jackson: 189, 1969 (with the A's)
Lou Gehrig: 220, 1927
Mickey Mantle: 221, 1957
But Judge did that damage with an all-time great hitter aligned in front of him in the batting order: Juan Soto, who left in December to sign a record-setting contract with the Mets. Last year, Soto had the highest full-season OPS+ of his career, at 178, drawing 129 walks and reaching base nearly 300 times.
A natural question is: What will Judge do this year, without the benefit of Soto hitting in front of him?
Judge's preference is to bat third, and it's unclear whether Cody Bellinger will hit in the No. 2 spot and whether Jazz Chisholm Jr. or perhaps Austin Wells will have the No. 4 spot. No matter how the lineup is arranged, however, Judge probably won't have a hitter getting on base in front of him 42% of the time as he did last year. When Judge batted with runners on base last season, he hit .338 with a .480 OBP.
One evaluator said he doesn't think Soto's departure will have much impact on Judge, though. "He's always hit," he said. "He hit before Soto, he'll hit after Soto."
Others disagree, such as ESPN's Eduardo Perez. "I've said all along -- 20% discount with promo code SOTO22," Perez wrote in a text. "Why pitch to [Judge] when he's locked in."
Chipper Jones, the Braves Hall of Famer, wrote in a text that the absence of Soto "will definitely have an effect on (Judge's numbers). Soto is a bad man at the plate. I'm not sure the Yankees have someone who even approaches Soto's OBP on their roster."
Said former big leaguer Tony Gwynn Jr.: "It'll definitely have an impact for sure. An adjusted OPS+ of 223 is crazy. He'll be back in the 150-175 range."
Longtime catcher David Ross: "I'm not sure what the numbers will be, but in my opinion, it could be significant."
Former Yankee Alex Rodriguez doesn't think that Judge's numbers will be dramatically impacted.
"Soto was there for just one year, and Judge hit 62 homers in a year before Soto arrived," he said, in a phone interview. But Rodriguez does think Judge's RBI total -- 144 last year -- will go down without Soto's presence, and that he'll get walked more. The identity of the hitter behind Judge "is one of the most overrated aspects in the sport. It's far more important to have someone good hitting in front of you. I had the luxury of (Bobby) Abreu having tough at-bats and getting on base in front of me."
"Otherwise, there are times when you don't even have the donut on your bat in the on-deck circle yet and you're walking to the plate because the guy in front of you is a quick out and they're calling your name."
"It's not like Judge hasn't had monster seasons without Soto," wrote Ben McDonald, the former pitcher and current ESPN analyst. "Having said that -- no doubt it's going to hurt some. It's nice to be hitting with runners on all the time, and that's what Soto provided. The key this year is whoever is hitting behind Judge -- Bellinger, Stanton or whoever -- has to be good to force teams to pitch to Judge."
Judge is high on the list of MLB's top 10 corner outfielders. At the top, in fact.
