MLB Scoring Trends - A clear shift so far for 2023

[Tanko]

To no one's surprise, MLB scoring is up for the first 3 weeks of 2023 vs the first 3 weeks of 2022.
> 2023 4.6 rpg per team 1st 3 weeks
> 2022 4.0 rpg per team 1st 3 weeks


The distribution of team scoring (not game tot scoring) has shifted for the 1st 3 weeks of the year. The most common number of runs being scored was 2 in 2022 and is 3 so far in 2023. You can see how the scoring has shifted in the chart below.

What's the so what of this... This means we're seeing ~1.5-2 runs more TOTAL (both teams combined) per game. The books over/unders have shifted to account for this but maybe not completely. 52% of the games have ended up OVER the total in 2023. In 2022 the OVER occurred 48% of the time (total for the entire season). Its not quite an apples to apples comparison since I'm using season total data for 2022 but it shows a difference so far.

Something to keep in mind as you play your MLB totals.

 

[Tanko]

Any thoughts on the shift and maybe how we capitalize on it?

 

[jjgold]

I think the scores are going to get lower. I’m losing betting on overs.

 

[Tanko]

I think the scores are going to get lower. I’m losing betting on overs.

Maybe. As players get used to the new rules maybe things will get back to the old scoring levels.