MLB Picks - Wednesday, 5/3/23 (1 Analysis)

[LT Profits]

2 MLB Plays Wednesday

Guardians -129 (Heritage)
Royals +138 (Heritage)


YTD: 57-57-5, +1.52

All plays are Listed Pitchers unless ACTION is stated

 

[LT Profits]

Royals +138 (Heritage)

In a matchup of two pitchers with nearly identical xFIPs, we think Zack Greinke and the Royals offer value as decided home underdogs hosting Kyle Gibson and the Orioles.

Weak Link in Rotation
The Orioles have made gigantic strides and are legitimate playoff contenders, but we feel Gibson is a weak link in the rotation. Basically, what you see is what you get with Kyle, as he has been consistently mediocre the last four seasons with an xFIP ranging from 3.94 to 4.36 with no drastic variances from ERA.

That xFIP stands at 4.32 this season vs. a 3.93 ERA, with a weak K/BB ratio of 7.08/2.88 per 9, again lining up with his career level of 7.19/3.19. One alarming area this season though is his weak soft-contact/hard-contact ratio of 10.8% / 30.4%, concerning for a non-strikeout guy.

Not as Bad as the ERA
Greinke is probably nearing the end of the line at age 39, and many may think that time has arrived with his ERA currently at 6.10. However, his xFIP is nearly two runs lower at 4.37, basically lining up with Gibson’s.

Also, while Greinke will not overpower anyone, he does have a wide array of six different pitches and his velocity is actually up about 1 MPH across all those pitches since last year, with his fastball back over 90 MPH at 90.2 after averaging 89.2 MPH last season.

So we expect Greinke to pitch closer to his xFIP than his ERA the rest of the way, which would put him so close to Gibson that it makes the Royals attractive underdogs.

 

[Wagerallsports]

GL with the action LT

 

[LT Profits]

3 MLB Plays Wednesday

Reds / Padres UNDER 8.5 +102 (Heritage)
Guardians -129 (Heritage)
Royals +138 (Heritage)

 

[LT Profits]

4 MLB Plays Wednesday

Reds / Padres UNDER 8.5 +102 (Heritage)
Guardians -129 (Heritage)
Royals +138 (Heritage)
Brewers / Rockies OVER 12 -103 (Heritage)

 

[LT Profits]

5 MLB Plays Wednesday

Reds / Padres UNDER 8.5 +102 (Heritage)
Guardians -129 (Heritage)
Cubs / Nationals UNDER 8 -113 (Heritage)
Royals +138 (Heritage)
Brewers / Rockies OVER 12 -103 (Heritage)