MLB Picks - Wednesday, 4/26/23 (1 Analysis)

[LT Profits]

1 MLB Play Wednesday

Phillies +108 (Heritage)


YTD: 48-48-4, +2.05

All plays are Listed Pitchers unless ACTION is stated

 

[jjgold]

What is strange avoiding big losses and big days

 

[LT Profits]

We see upside with Taijuan Walker and temporary downside with Logan Gilbert Wednesday, giving the Phillies value as small home underdogs hosting the Mariners.

Nice Arsenal for Walker
What we like about Walker is he has four different pitches he has thrown at least 15% of the time that can throw for strikes, with nice separation between a 93.9 MPH fastball and 83.5 MPH slider. Furthermore, he also throws in occasional curveballs and cutters, which while not as effective as his four primary pitches, gives batters six pitches to consider.

He has pitched to a 3.80 ERA in the early going, and while we are not crazy about the 4.53 xFIP, at least it is heading in the right direction as he has allowed just three runs and nine hits over 12.1 innings his last two starts.

Injury Concern + Hitters’ Park
Now we are actually very high on Gilbert, who comes off a season where he posted a 3.20 ERA and 3.78 xFIP and who has displayed excellent K/BB ratios his young career. However, fading Gilbert here has more to do with this situational spot.

First, Logan did not look himself last out in his first non-quality start of the season allowing four earned runs in six innings. Second, he has been dealing with spasms in the spatula area of his throwing shoulder, necessitating an extra day off between starts. Third, he is now pitching in a hitters’ park unlike his home stadium in Seattle.

That combination is enough for us to fade Gilbert as road chalk and back the Phillies here.

 

[LT Profits]

2 MLB Plays Wednesday

Phillies +108 (Heritage)
Nationals / Mets UNDER 8 +102 (Heritage)